User talk:Chacor/Sandbox/12L.KYLE 2002

NHC Advisory archive NHC Tropical Cyclone Report NHC Monthly Summary, Sept 2002 NHC Monthly Summary, Oct 2002 RSMC Miami and members of the RA IV Hurricane Committee - 2002 reports - Bermuda report not included (hard copy only) CNN article on Avila's final advisory for Kyle AP via USAToday report Gary Padgett summary

Notes from advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002 THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE BECAME ELONGATED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST. THE NORTHEAST PORTION IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST RAPIDLY. IT WILL MONITORED FOR GENERATION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION DEVELOPED CONVECTION AND IS PARTIALLY SEPARATED FROM THE FRONT. THIS REFORMATION IS CONSISTENT WITH WIND REPORTS FROM THE BUOY 41652 AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL AGENCIES. THIS SOUTHWESTERN CIRCULATION...WHICH IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE...IS POORLY DEFINED AND ITS FUTURE INTENSITY OR TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

INITIAL    30/2100Z 27.5N  67.0W    30 KTS 12HR VT    01/0600Z 27.5N  67.0W    30 KTS 24HR VT    01/1800Z 27.3N  67.2W    30 KTS 36HR VT    02/0600Z 27.0N  67.5W    30 KTS 48HR VT    02/1800Z 27.0N  67.5W    30 KTS 72HR VT    03/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W    30 KTS
 * Storm became a TS at 01/12Z (18 hr), storm effectively seperated into two

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. TENACIOUS KYLE HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO SHEAR. IN FACT...DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT KYLE IS A TROPICAL STORM AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND IS KEPT THROUGH 72 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING.

STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPANDS EASTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS LONG RANGE FORECAST POSITIONS IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...BERMUDA HAS OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    01/1500Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS 12HR VT    02/0000Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS 24HR VT    02/1200Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS 36HR VT    03/0000Z 27.8N  67.3W    35 KTS 48HR VT    03/1200Z 27.0N  67.5W    35 KTS 72HR VT    04/1200Z 26.5N  68.0W    35 KTS
 * Storm reached 55 kt at 02/18Z (30 hr). Storm also failed to follow forecast track (at 03/00Z, best track shows 29.1 66.7, indicating northeastward movement rather than southwestward.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002 KYLE HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW NEARLY CO-LOCATED. THERE IS A...UH...HOLE...AT THE CENTER THAT I WOULD CALL AN EYE IF THE NEARBY CONVECTION WAS MORE SOLID OR VIGOROUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE BOTH 55 KT. SINCE THE TREND IN THE CLASSIFICATIONS IS UPWARD...I WILL ASSUME THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT AT ADVISORY TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/2. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST...AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...THE GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS ANY MORE EASTWARD TRANSLATION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL DOES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY CONVERGING A BIT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT OR JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH ERODES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

KYLE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE A SHOT OF UPPER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES THE SHEAR. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KYLE REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BRIEFLY BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY DUE TO SHEAR. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    02/2100Z 29.0N  66.8W    60 KTS 12HR VT    03/0600Z 29.0N  66.5W    65 KTS 24HR VT    03/1800Z 28.7N  66.7W    60 KTS 36HR VT    04/0600Z 28.5N  67.0W    55 KTS 48HR VT    04/1800Z 28.5N  68.0W    55 KTS 72HR VT    05/1800Z 28.5N  70.5W    50 KTS
 * Uncertainties over eye, forecast of hurricane failed to materialise.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002 KYLE REFUSES TO GO AWAY...BUT NEITHER DOES IT WANT TO MAINTAIN ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS NORTHEAST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES WHICH WERE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AT 00Z. THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING A SHEAR PATTERN WOULD STILL SUPPORT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/3. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT BETWEEN A WEST THROUGH NORTHERLY MOTION FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND POSSIBLY MADE KYLE A MORE SHALLOW VERTICAL CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT MEANS THAT STEERING CURRENTS MAY BECOME WEAK AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF KYLE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN HIGHLY ZONAL WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF EACH TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TO KYLE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND KYLE STALLS...AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN SHORT SPURTS AROUND THE SMALL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN/GFS...AVN/GFS ENSEMBLE...AND UMMET MODELS.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SOME NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    04/0300Z 29.5N  68.1W    45 KTS 12HR VT    04/1200Z 30.0N  69.3W    40 KTS 24HR VT    05/0000Z 30.5N  70.2W    40 KTS 36HR VT    05/1200Z 32.0N  71.0W    45 KTS 48HR VT    06/0000Z 33.5N  71.1W    50 KTS 72HR VT    07/0000Z 35.5N  69.5W    50 KTS
 * Storm weakened to a tropical depression at 05/06Z (30 hr)

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002 KYLE IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION AND THERE ARE NO EVIDENCES OF NEW CELLS REDEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS TIGHT AND WELL DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN KYLE COULD RESTRENGTHEN IF THE SHEAR RELAXES AS MODELS INDICATE AND KYLE SURVIVES THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5 KNOTS. THE RIDGE NORTH OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE...WILL THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TAKE KYLE WITH IT TO THE NORTHEAST? MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT...PRIMARILY IN THE SPEED. THE BEST SOLUTION IS TO KEEP KYLE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNTIL A MORE DEFINITE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    04/2100Z 30.8N  70.4W    35 KTS 12HR VT    05/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W    35 KTS 24HR VT    05/1800Z 32.5N  71.5W    40 KTS 36HR VT    06/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    45 KTS 48HR VT    06/1800Z 34.5N  72.0W    45 KTS 72HR VT    07/1800Z 35.5N  71.5W    45 KTS
 * Uncertainties over forecast, storm became a depression at 05/06Z

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002 UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH KYLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IS NOW ABOUT 130 NM AWAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 35 KT...BUT THE T NUMBERS ARE LOWER...AND I HAVE MY DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER KYLE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN HAS A COUPLE OF SUSPECT 35 KT VECTORS...BUT LOTS AT 30 KT...ENOUGH TO PRESUME THAT THERE ARE 35 KT WINDS BELOW THE RESOLUTION OF THE SCATTEROMETER...SO KYLE REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.

FOR THE LAST TWELVE HOURS KYLE HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTER THAT KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...LEAVING KYLE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ANTICYCLONE CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND GFDL MEANDER KYLE IN MORE OR LESS ITS CURRENT LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NOGAPS STILL TAKES KYLE OUT TO SEA...JUST BEYOND OUR THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THIS MODEL IS NOW THE OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS OVERALL MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF KYLE IS CURRENTLY VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR IS STRONG...AND THE SURROUNDING AIR IS RATHER DRY. CONSEQUENTLY I EXPECT KYLE TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE THE SHEAR LESSENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A NON- OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS LIKELY TO CREATE MORE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR KYLE.

HOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE. JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT THE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE GFS HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS ACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF THE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    05/0300Z 31.4N  71.3W    35 KTS 12HR VT    05/1200Z 32.4N  71.7W    30 KTS 24HR VT    06/0000Z 33.4N  71.7W    35 KTS 36HR VT    06/1200Z 34.5N  71.7W    35 KTS 48HR VT    07/0000Z 35.0N  71.5W    40 KTS 72HR VT    08/0000Z 35.0N  71.5W    40 KTS
 * Uncertainty over initial intensity, uncertainty over long-term intensity, quirkiness from Forecaster Franklin

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002 EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THERE IS NO OTHER DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CI 2.0/2.5/2.5 OR 30/35/35 KNOTS FROM SAB/TAFB/AFGWC. RECENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATES FROM SSMI AND TRMM PASSES INDICATE WINDS ARE BELOW 35 KNOTS. SO KYLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.

THE CENTER BECAME POORLY DEFINED ON INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE ECLIPSE...BUT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/8. THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW KYLE TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR 72 HOURS. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS KYLE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.

FOLLOWING THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING KYLE IS FORECAST TO SOON DECREASE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    05/0900Z 32.0N  72.0W    30 KTS 12HR VT    05/1800Z 33.4N  72.1W    30 KTS 24HR VT    06/0600Z 34.6N  71.5W    35 KTS 36HR VT    06/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W    35 KTS 48HR VT    07/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    40 KTS 72HR VT    08/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    40 KTS
 * Storm did not stall.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 64 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002 IN ADDITION TO A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS WE ARE RE-UPGRADING KYLE TO A TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES KYLE IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COURTESY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THESE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW AND INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROBABLY CREATE A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. KYLE IS VIRTUALLY IN A COL...WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE FUTURE MOTION OF KYLE. IN PARTICULAR THERE IS A QUESTION HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL AFFECT THE STEERING. THEREFORE...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    06/1500Z 33.7N  69.7W    35 KTS 12HR VT    07/0000Z 34.0N  69.5W    35 KTS 24HR VT    07/1200Z 34.0N  69.0W    40 KTS 36HR VT    08/0000Z 34.0N  68.5W    40 KTS 48HR VT    08/1200Z 34.0N  68.5W    40 KTS 72HR VT    09/1200Z 34.0N  68.5W    35 KTS
 * Storm did not stall, headed southwest; became a depression at 08/18Z

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 71 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002

POST-ECLIPSE IR IMAGERY AND A 0408Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATE THAT KYLE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE IS NO OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE CENTER IS WELL DEFINED...THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF KYLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AWFA. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 195/3...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A LITTLE FASTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF KYLE...WHICH IS ABOUT TO BYPASS THE STORM. THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF KYLE ARE ELONGATING AND MOVING NORTHWARD...BYPASSING KYLE TO THE EAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF KYLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO....WITH CLIPER BEING THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

KYLE IS LIKELY TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BUILD NEAR THE SYSTEM AND SOMEWHAT LESSEN THE SHEAR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARMER WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT KYLE COULD STRUGGLE FOR 24 HR OR SO THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...THE AVN/GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAKENING KYLE... WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS MAINTAINING THE STORM AT OR ABOVE ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING...LESS THAN FORECAST 24 HR AGO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...A STEADY-STATE OR WEAKENING KYLE COULD OCCUR IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    08/0900Z 31.9N  71.3W    35 KTS 12HR VT    08/1800Z 31.2N  71.5W    35 KTS 24HR VT    09/0600Z 30.3N  71.8W    40 KTS 36HR VT    09/1800Z 29.5N  72.2W    45 KTS 48HR VT    10/0600Z 28.9N  73.0W    45 KTS 72HR VT    11/0600Z 28.0N  75.0W    50 KTS
 * Storm became a depression at 9hr.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 73 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002

VERTICAL SHEAR HAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER OF KYLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED...BUT CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE MORE TIME. WILL KYLE MAKE YET ANOTHER COMEBACK? NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS EQUIVOCAL ON THE ANSWER. FACTORS IN FAVOR OF RESTRENGTHENING ARE...WARM WATERS AND A GOOD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. FACTORS OPPOSING RE-STRENGTHING ARE...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER WE CERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF KYLE REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER...220/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. KYLE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS TAKES KYLE TO THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW SIGNIFICANT A SYSTEM IT WILL BE BY THEN.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KYLE TOMORROW.

FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    08/2100Z 30.4N  72.2W    30 KTS 12HR VT    09/0600Z 29.5N  73.0W    30 KTS 24HR VT    09/1800Z 28.6N  74.4W    30 KTS 36HR VT    10/0600Z 28.0N  76.0W    30 KTS 48HR VT    10/1800Z 27.7N  77.7W    30 KTS 72HR VT    11/1800Z 28.0N  81.0W    30 KTS
 * Storm regained TS intensity at 11/06Z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 76 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2002 KYLE CONTINUES AS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...NO DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DOWN TO 25 KT BUT SINCE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KYLE PRESENTLY I WILL WAIT TO SEE THE AIRCRAFT DATA BEFORE LOWERING THE WINDS. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES MORE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE... VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND...IF THIS CONTINUES...KYLE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING...MAINLY BECAUSE THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM DECREASING SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ARE DOMINATING THAT MODEL'S INTENSITY FORECAST. NONE OF THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW RE-STRENGTHENING. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS KYLE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    09/1500Z 28.5N  74.5W    30 KTS 12HR VT    10/0000Z 28.0N  76.0W    30 KTS 24HR VT    10/1200Z 27.7N  77.9W    30 KTS 36HR VT    11/0000Z 28.0N  79.9W    25 KTS 48HR VT    11/1200Z 28.8N  81.3W    25 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT    12/1200Z 30.0N  82.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 * System regained TS strength at 11/06Z, and again at 12/06Z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002 OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T1.5 FROM TAFB. THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THE OTHER BANDS AS WELL...SO KYLE HAS BOUGHT ITSELF ANOTHER SIX HOURS OF LIFE...AND PROBABLY MORE. WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LAST FLURRY OF ACTIVITY...OR THE START OF A REGENERATION IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN SSTS...IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS STILL EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AT WHICH TIME THE CIRCULATION WILL BE UNDERNEATH AN ANTICYCLONE...A CONFIGURATION FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN KYLE...HOWEVER...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. I SUSPECT THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH CONVECTION...AND SO I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS THINKING COULD CHANGE IF KYLE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...AND MOST OF IT KEEPS KYLE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE. BASED ON THE TRENDS IN INITIAL MOTION AND THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW OFFSHORE UNTIL 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE MAJOR GUIDANCE MODELS.

KYLE IS NOW TIED FOR THE 7TH LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE NUMBER 6 SPOT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    10/0300Z 28.3N  76.3W    25 KTS 12HR VT    10/1200Z 28.3N  77.7W    25 KTS 24HR VT    11/0000Z 28.6N  79.5W    25 KTS 36HR VT    11/1200Z 29.4N  80.9W    25 KTS 48HR VT    12/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W    25 KTS 72HR VT    13/0000Z 34.0N  79.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
 * More Franklin quirkiness.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 79 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SO FAR...THE CONVECTION IS NEITHER WELL-BANDED NOR CONCENTRATED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SHIP IN A CLOUD BAND WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 30 KT WINDS AT 03Z. THIS BAND HAS RUN AWAY FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...AND THUS THIS WIND IS LIKELY NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF KYLE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HR. BEYOND THAT TIME... LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO TURN NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE EITHER INLAND OR JUST OFFSHORE. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING IN WHETHER KYLE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AFTER RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO RECURVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER 48 HR. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND FARTHER SOUTH AND EARLIER.

KYLE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND WHILE SOME DRY AIR IS SEEN NEAR THE CYCLONE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE SUBSIDENCE SEEN 24 HR AGO HAS DIMINISHED. WITH THE RETURN OF THE CONVECTION...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A PATTERN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SAVE FOR THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR KYLE TO BE STEADY-STATE OR WEAKENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WITH THE FORECAST LIGHT SHEAR...KYLE COULD RE-INTENSIFY IF THE CONVECTION CAN CONCENTRATE AND PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER.

FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    10/0900Z 28.3N  77.5W    25 KTS 12HR VT    10/1800Z 28.4N  79.0W    25 KTS 24HR VT    11/0600Z 29.1N  80.5W    25 KTS 36HR VT    11/1800Z 30.3N  81.1W    25 KTS 48HR VT    12/0600Z 31.8N  80.9W    25 KTS 72HR VT    13/0600Z 35.0N  79.0W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
 * At 13/06Z storm had merged with bigger cold front

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 80 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE WAS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ALTHOUGH THIS IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO CHECK THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND THAT MODEL HAS BEEN OVER-PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF KYLE FOR SOME TIME NOW. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...THERE IS NOW A GREATER POSSIBILITY OF KYLE REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A LOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECASTS.

FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    10/1500Z 28.5N  78.6W    25 KTS 12HR VT    11/0000Z 28.9N  80.0W    30 KTS 24HR VT    11/1200Z 30.3N  81.2W    30 KTS 36HR VT    12/0000Z 31.8N  81.1W    30 KTS 48HR VT    12/1200Z 33.5N  80.0W    25 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT    13/1200Z 37.0N  77.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 * SHIPS noted to be inaccurate, however Kyle regained TS strength at 11/06Z, per SHIPS forecast of restrengthening

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 81 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

KYLE HAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY PLENTIFUL...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY WHEN AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OCCURRED. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT. AS BEFORE...ONLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...AND THAT MODEL HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE BIAS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN WINDS UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST...BUT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KYLE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED.

KYLE HAS TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AROUND A LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. LATEST GUIDANCE IS FAVORING KYLE...ASSUMING IT SURVIVES...MOVING BACK OVER THE WATER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CLEARLY KYLE HAS BEEN A SURVIVOR UP TO NOW.

FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    10/2100Z 29.2N  80.1W    30 KTS 12HR VT    11/0600Z 30.4N  81.0W    30 KTS 24HR VT    11/1800Z 32.3N  80.8W    30 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT    12/0600Z 34.0N  79.2W    25 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT    12/1800Z 35.3N  77.0W    25 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT    13/1800Z 37.5N  72.0W    30 KTS...OVER WATER
 * "CLEARLY KYLE HAS BEEN A SURVIVOR UP TO NOW."

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 82 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH KYLE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS EVENING...AND THE JACKSONVILLE RADAR IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURE. IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE CENTER OF KYLE PASSED VERY CLOSE TO BUOY 41012. DATA FROM THIS BUOY INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY...IF AT ALL...SINCE THE RECON THIS AFTERNOON...AND SO I AM NOT GOING TO UPGRADE KYLE JUST YET. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN DOES NOT SETTLE THE ISSUE CLEARLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KYLE IN ABOUT 3 HOURS. I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A WARNING...AND I EXPECT KYLE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11. KYLE CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH A BASICALLY NORTHWARD TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAT SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER INLAND BUT CLOSE TO THE COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW KYLE BEING ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...THAT KYLE COULD MAINTAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY AND BE THE DOMINANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...AS SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    11/0300Z 30.3N  80.4W    30 KTS 12HR VT    11/1200Z 32.0N  80.5W    35 KTS 24HR VT    12/0000Z 34.0N  79.0W    35 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT    12/1200Z 35.5N  76.0W    30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT    13/0000Z 39.0N  71.5W    35 KTS...OVER WATER/EXTRATROP 72HR VT    14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 * Uncertainty over initial intensity

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 83 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND 5-10 KT HIGHER WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS THAN SEEN DURING THE MISSION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE 45 KT...KYLE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. WHILE KYLE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE AND CHARLESTON INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS RATHER THAN SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TWO SUCH BURSTS RESEMBLING SUPERCELLS HAVE OCCURRED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 5 HR.

KYLE MOVED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST 6 HR...LIKELY DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER CAUSED BY CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 345/11. KYLE IS NOW PASSING THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS MAKING CONTACT WITH THE WESTERLIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...AND THAT MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL KYLE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN ABOUT 12-18 HR...AND IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

KYLE WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS COULD REACH 40 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SYSTEM COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM WINDS DUE TO ACCELERATION...CLOSENESS TO WATER...AND BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR KYLE TO MAINTAIN 35 KT WINDS UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER THE NON-TROPICAL LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 48 HR IS EX-KYLE OR A SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AND ABSORB KYLE AFTER 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    11/0900Z 31.2N  80.9W    35 KTS 12HR VT    11/1800Z 32.8N  80.7W    35 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT    12/0600Z 35.0N  78.0W    35 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT    12/1800Z 37.2N  74.0W    35 KTS...OVER WATER 48HR VT    13/0600Z 38.5N  70.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT    14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 * Uncertainty over whether seperate system was part of Kyle

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 87 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. KYLE IS LOCATED ON THE COASTLINE WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT... WHILE A SECOND...NON-TROPICAL LOW IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. THESE TWO LOWS APPEAR NOW TO HAVE DISTINCT SIGNATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS A BURST OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF KYLE. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KYLE...SO TROPICAL REDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS MODEL DEEPENS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW...WHICH THEN ENTRAINS KYLE...OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW...PERHAPS SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

AT 21.5 DAYS...KYLE IS NOW NUMBER THREE ON THE ATLANTIC BASIN LONGEVITY LIST...BEHIND INGA OF 1969 AT 24.75 DAYS...AND GINGER OF 1971 AT 27.25 DAYS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT KYLE CAN MAKE IT TO NUMBER TWO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    12/0300Z 34.7N  77.0W    30 KTS 12HR VT    12/1200Z 35.8N  74.5W    30 KTS 24HR VT    13/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT    13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 * Kyle's longevity

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 89 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002 KYLE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE CONVECTION IS TAKING THE SHAPE OF A FRONTAL BAND AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED. KYLE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON KYLE...AND I HOPE THERE WILL BE NO MORE SURPRISES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL    12/1500Z 37.3N  73.1W    40 KTS 12HR VT    13/0000Z 39.0N  70.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT    13/1200Z 40.0N  65.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT    14/0000Z 40.0N  60.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 * The 89th and final advisory

Hope you don't mind, but here's an interesting Tropical Weather Outlook regarding an outshoot of Kyle. Hurricanehink ( talk ) 03:05, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 *