User talk:Etinosa Usiosefe Osemwowa

Introduction:
Climate change is now a reality of both physical and global presence. Despite concerted effort to reduce additional emissions of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere, a time of active and accelerated climate change is unavoidable (IPCC, 2008). Projections on climate change predict that higher precipitation, which will be extreme in warmer climates, is likely to occur. This will increase the risk of two ironic extremities: flood; and drought (Wetherald and Manabe, 2002). Wet areas will become wetter; and dry areas will get drier (IFPRI, 2006). The effects of global warming are anticipated to be greatest in the Sahara and African region (Desanker, 2000). As a result of Africa’s menial human adaptive capacity to predicted rises in extreme weather events, the continent has been depicted as one of the most vulnerable regions to the effects of global climate change (IPCC, 2008; Tschakert, 2006). This can be attributed to her lack of economic and technological resources, excessive reliance on rain-fed agriculture, prevalent plagues of poverty, and incapable educational processes to cope with the inundating effects of disasters and extreme weather events (Reid and Vogel, 2006). The intensity of the impact resulting from disasters proposes that the minimization of risks associated with events such as flood, drought, earthquakes, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes amongst many others, poses great threat to the attainment of the millennium development goals by 2015, particularly in countries in Sub- Sahara Africa (Howie, 2007; Ibem, 2011).

This briefing paper discusses flooding in Nigeria regarding: 1.	Highlighting how cities in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on Lagos, have been affected by flood. 2.	Raising arguments which would guide decisions for integrating climate sensitive planning. 3.	Management policy that would help mitigates the impact of this disaster in the event of future occurrence. The term “Flood” in this briefing paper is used to refer to flood as a hazard or phenomenon. However, issues presented therein can be related to hazards in general although, some are flood-specific. Flooding is a phenomenon that has ravaging effect on human livelihood (Bashir et al., 2012). It is worsened by changes in climate and inadequate preparedness. In most Nigerian cities, flooding remains a great environmental challenge that has continued to resist solutions and is rendering people more vulnerable to the hazard. The recent Nigerian floods have resulted to loss of lives and properties, loss of assets and infrastructures, and increased spread of diseases (Bashir et al., 2012). Floods are the most re-occurring disastrous natural hazard which exists across the world and are classified as among sudden onset phenomena (WHO, 2012). Not all floods are the same as different type of floods may occur with different speeds. Flash floods, river floods and coastal floods are the main categories of flood which exist (McCluskey, 2001; WHO, 2012). Flash floods develop within minutes, without any visible signs of rain and with an often uncertain scale and nature (ADPC, 2005). Conversely, other floods can be predicted to a reasonable extent; they develop gradually and last for a duration of several days. Globally, there has been an increase in the amount of people killed or affected by flood disasters (United Nations, 2011). A report by the United Nations states that floods account for about half of disasters worldwide and is responsible for about 84% of total disaster deaths globally (United Nations, 2011). This eventuality has garnered global attention and is being managed through post-impact and rehabilitation efforts (United Nations, 2001). Additionally, pro-active strategies to minimize the impact and prevent the occurrence of hazards are being implemented. Despite these efforts, the impact of flood and other disasters still pose great threat to sustainable development in most Sub- Sahara African countries (Nwokoro, 2004; Abang, 2005). A considerable area of concern in the sub-Sahara African region is that disaster risk management ignores reducing vulnerability to hazards and focuses on response, recovery and rehabilitation (ECOWAS, 2006). Such is the case in a country like Nigeria where there is a continued increase in vulnerabilities to hazards. Nigeria’s increase in population lacks comparable economic growth and institutions to harmonize disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation policies into its development plans and programs (UNDAC, 2002; Abang, 2005).

ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED:
There are several flooding issues that alliance between government, communities, NGO’s, voluntary organisations, local and international donors should address. They include: 1.	Managing the effects of climate change / storm effects and the associated increase in river / sea levels 2.	Ensure requisite consultation with the Environmental Agency, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), regarding flooding issues 3.	Design new city plans to cope with more violent and concentrated rainfall 4.	Ensure the reduction of vulnerability to flooding issues to the lowest minimum

Nigeria:
Nigeria is located approximately between latitude 4° and 14° North of the Equator, and between longitudes 2° 2' and 14° 30' East of the Greenwich meridian (Anukam, 1997). The country is bordered to the north by the Republics of Niger and Chad, the Atlantic Ocean to the south, the Republic of Cameroon to the East and the Republic of Benin to the west. Nigeria has a population of over 155 million people which is unevenly spread over a national territory of 356, 688 square miles (Index Mundi, 2012). Nigeria has the eighth largest national population in the world and is Africa’s most populous country. She represents about a quarter of the total population of all the countries in Sub-Sahara Africa.

Lagos:
Lagos is located on the South-Western coast of Nigeria. It covers a land area of approximately 154, 000 hectares and has a population of over 10 million inhabitants (Ernst, 2008; Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2007). Currently, Lagos is the twenty fifth most populous city in the world (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2007) and is estimated to be among the three largest cities in the world by 2015 with a population of about 24.5 million inhabitants (Ibem, 2011). With its high growing population densities, environmental degradation and generation of slums, Lagos vulnerability to hazards and disasters has increased (Ibem, 2011). Floods are among the development induced disasters that have caused one of the greatest havoc in the city (Simpson, 2006; Ana et al., 2007). Lagos remains one of Nigeria’s most vulnerable lowland cities which are greatly disturbed by rise in sea level, flooding and erosion. It is quite displeasing that a mega city such as Lagos is still vulnerable to flooding at this time and age. The city’s inadequate drainage system, hillside deforestation and replacement of natural soil cover contribute to its exposure to hazards (Bashir et al., 2012). Violation of the city’s flood plains, indiscriminate physical development, illicit construction of buildings, and dumping of refuse and wastes in drainage channels have contributed to the city’s vulnerability to flood disasters (Bashir et al., 2012).

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOODING:
Climate change is an environmental factor related to human activity and affects the particulate nature and balance of the atmosphere (African Institute of Applied Economics, 2009; Odjugo, 2009). Changes in climate have made weather less predictable particularly in countries that lack the resources and facilities to effectively predict and manage weather conditions (Bashir et al., 2012). The uncertainties of rainfall in recent times have caused grave hardship during the rainy season. Climate change aids the aggravation of urban and coastal flooding by disrupting the order of flooding in flood prone regions (Action Aid, 2006). The impact of climate change causes sea levels to rise and invariably impacts on urban and coastal floods. Torrential rainfall combined with thunderstorms has been observed to be on the rise in most urban areas. This is thought to be due to urban areas attaining higher temperatures, which then creates a local air circulation that eventually develops into heavy rainfall and thunderstorms after the process of condensation has taken place (Nolan and Marron, 1995). Predictions from climate models have warned that by 2080, rainfall will increase by 20 – 30 percent and this will lead to a 200% rise in flood risk (1PCC, 2008). Rainfall is believed to be the primary source of flooding however, secondary factors such as land use and changes in the built up areas are equally responsible (Potschin, 2009). In a general caption, human factors and environmental factors are believed to be responsible for the events of flooding. The misuse of land in the idea and context of development impacts on the incidence of flooding. Regardless of vast knowledge and publicity on climate change and the possibility of increased flooding as a result of the changes in climate, Nigeria still finds it challenging to provide adaptive measures that will minimize the effects of these hazards. The impact of flooding in any particular city remains enormous. Flooding has environmental, economic and social consequences. Environmentally, flooding causes excessive loss of fertile soil through water erosion leading to the formation of gullies which later become stream channels (Ayele et al., 2006). Economically, flooding destroys buildings and infrastructures, damages communication lines and water pipes, and disrupts governmental and commercial services. This causes high expenditure for relief work, flood protection and maintenance of affected areas. Socially, flooding brings harm to the social lives of people who live in affected areas. It threatens settlements among the poor and low income groups who live along river banks (Ayalew, 2007) and invariably deepens poverty.

CASE STUDY OF LAGOS:
Incidences of flood have been on the rise in Lagos since the last 5 years and this exemplifies the problem operating in most urban areas in Nigeria (Kolawole et al., 2011). The impact is most felt by the poor who occupy the flood plains for accommodation. The heightened demand for land by rural migrants led to the development of slums in urban areas which today accounts for the seventy percent of Lagos population living in these areas (Adelekan, 2009). Lagos is faced with the quandary of urban migration by rural dwellers who settle in highly prone flood areas. Construction and the removal of vegetation in these areas reshape the water pathways and land surfaces. Flood disasters are becoming more prevalent in the Lagos metropolis due to government’s lack of attention to development and maintenance of proper drainage channels and their incompetence to house hold waste collection (Satterthwaite et al., 2007; Potschin, 2009). Flooding disrupts the effective operations of the Lagos environment, particularly in areas of sustained infrastructure which are relevant to sustainable livelihood (Bashir et al., 2012). Elongation of areas which are not combined with the production of effective drainage channels, proper planning and disaster management policies jointly contributes to the devastating effects of flood hazards. In Nigeria, three major forms of flood occur. These are: urban, river and coastal floods (Gwary, 2008; Adeoti, 2010). During the rainy season, typically between April and October, most parts of Lagos are exposed to flooding. Heavy rains in July 2011, led to widespread devastation of the city, killing over twenty five persons and damaging properties worth millions of naira (Akoni et al., 2011). In other parts of the country, similar situations are experienced. A recent happening in Jos, a state in the northern part of Nigeria, left thirty five people dead and destroyed over two hundred homes. This was due to the effects of a heavy rainfall which forced a dam to overflow (Gazette, 2012). In Adamawa in 2001, floods destroyed houses and farmlands and over five hundred casualties were recorded (Etuonovbe, 2011). Other states affected by the Nigerian floods of 2001 were Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Kano and Zamfara states. In each state, houses and properties were destroyed and large numbers of casualties were recorded. A similar flood occurrence in Taraba in 2005 swept off eighty houses, massively destroyed 410 houses and left over fifty thousand people displaced. Future occurrences of flooding cannot be prevented. However, their impact can be mitigated. Although the Nigerian government have been trying to put measures in place to reduce the damaging effects of these hazards, not much benefit have been seen with policies they have put in place.

ADAPTATION TO URBAN FLOODING:
The general guideline on adaptation to flooding identifies that: flood warning messages and information should be given to people living in flood prone areas; the construction of human settlements should be engineered in a way as to avoid flooding; and evacuation mechanisms should be put in place to assist flood victims (Douglas et al., 2008). Adaptation to floods is dependent on the policies and strategies put in place to respond to the needs of the most vulnerable groups in a society (Olorunfemi, 2011). During floods, houses near drainage channels represent the most vulnerable groups (Breitmeier et al., 2009). From past experiences, the major form of assistance to the urban poor comes from family and community members.In most Nigerian cities, coping strategies to flood involves: 1. Scooping water out of houses with buckets, 2. Use of mechanical pumps by wealthier community members to remove water, 3. Digging trenches across buildings, 4. Constructing dykes, 5. Building temporary bridges across houses to enable movement during flooding, 6. Blocking water inlets with sandbags, waterproof recycled materials and pieces of cloth to reduce the amount of water entering houses which is later removed after the water level has dropped to allow the flow out of water still present in the house, 7. Putting children on higher objects within the house, relocation to higher places and distribution of relief materials (Douglas et al., 2008; Action Aid, 2006). Inappropriate policies and lack of legislative framework presents constraints to the implementation of adaptive responses and inhibits access to the resources needed by the community members for survival and adaptation. For Lagos, a strategy which includes early warning systems, real time weather monitoring and a thorough assessment of the impact of climate change on the city’s development should be put in place. Presently in Lagos, adaptation response experiences an isolated approach and unwillingness on the part of government to provide basic infrastructure such as drainage systems in informal settlements.

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT:
There is the need for a proactive management of disasters, particularly floods and other related hazards, in the urban areas of Nigeria. However, for this to be properly enacted, it would require an identification of the risk, development of strategies to minimize the risk, and the generation of policies to put the strategies into effect (UNESCO-IHE, 2012). Various theories and frameworks have been utilized in the study of hazards and its impacts (Tierney et al., 2001). These have accounted for its contrasting views and definitions (Ibem, 2011). These theories and frameworks ranges from data driven modelling to physical based approaches and from conceptual modelling to detailed 1D – 2D modelling. These are then integrated into the wider context of flood risk assessment and disaster management which considers a range of activities from planning of the urban areas for places with potential flood risks, to urban hydrology, climate change, flood hazards, its impact on the environment, issues related to public health, and the layout of flood protection plans (UNESCO-IHE, 2012). Universally, disasters are either naturally or human induced events whose impact manifest in vulnerable areas of the environment (Carter 1998, Canon, 2008). In theory, managing disasters is a three-phased approach incorporating prevention and preparedness, mitigation, and response (Abang, 1997). These phases are recognised to be the pre-disaster and post-disaster phases (MDPS, 2007). In Nigeria, the pre-disaster phase of prevention, preparedness and mitigation is often neglected. Even the post-disaster phase of responses is sometimes ineffective. Nigerian cities lack risk management plans, monitoring and early warning systems (Bashir et al., 2012). This should be looked into and changed if the country is to effectively manage the risk associated disasters. Laws for disaster response should be made effective. Adequate enforcement and increased human and financial empowerment should be sought for the country to have the capacity to quickly respond to impacts and effects of hazards. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the body responsible for the management of disasters which was established under Act 12 and amended by Act 50 of the 1999 constitution has demonstrated low capabilities in managing various disasters that have occurred in Nigeria in recent years (Olorunfemi, 2011). This has been attributed to lack of funding and modern equipment to respond to disasters. In relation to flooding, flood risk management should focus on relocating inhabitants and preventing migration into the dangerous areas (Bourchard et al., 2007).

VULNERABILITY REDUCTION:
Vulnerability reduction is centrally a government issue. An assessment of vulnerability to flood should incorporate a change in physical, social, political and economic factors responsible for vulnerabilities in various groups. Vulnerability is the exposure of the human population to hazards and the effects of disasters (Smit and Wandel, 2006). It is the outcome of natural events (Tierney et al., 2001) and a function of the distribution of physical and socio-economic systems (Kasperson et al., 2001) which is restricted in human capacity to manage the impacts of resulting hazards. A major danger associated with flooding in vulnerable areas is the detrimental impact on human health (Olorunfemi, 2011). In Lagos and much of Nigeria, the increasing vulnerabilities of human areas to disasters are greatly associated with political elements which are related to environmental degradation and developmental provocations. Although in Nigeria, vulnerability reduction has witnessed great improvements in knowledge and policy measures, total safety can be achieved through science and the application of technological measures (Becker et al., 2008). Additionally, political strategies to vulnerability reduction should address social inequality, poverty, creation of infrastructure, and curtailment of environmental degradation (UN-HABITAT, 1992). Vulnerability of cities to the impact of flood depends on the level of preparedness. Regular clearing of drainage channels and construction of standard drainage channels along major roads would prevent the accumulation of water and help reduce the effects of flood hazards. Additionally, availability of information to residents in vulnerable areas would help increase the preparedness level of inhabitants in that area and reduce the level of tragedies associated to flood hazards.

REDESIGNING CITIES:
Remodelling of cities will greatly influence the ecological demeanour of human livelihood (Dessai, 2003). The deteriorating state of Nigerian cities which is as a result of poorly managed urbanisation allows the need for remodelling urgency. Lagos and other cities in Nigeria are faced with heightened demand for infrastructure to help improve livelihood and encourage economic development. However, weak governance and escalating population growth makes it difficult for the challenges to be met. This incompetency on government part encourages development of buildings and infrastructures in hazardous places. The increasing population growth further adds to the worsening impact of climate change which negatively affects the human environment (Bashir et al., 2012). Low political will and lack of preparatory measures increases the degree of vulnerability, inhibiting the ability to lower the impact of hazards. Remodelling of cities for healthy living is an aspect of governance that deals with developing relationships among stakeholders and reallocation of resources towards meeting the demands and needs of the people. Coupled with good and active governance, the redesigning of cities will involve support from city residents in the decision making process and inputs from professionals in the field of city management (Bashir et al., 2012).

LAGOS MODES OF GOVERNANCE:
Flooding is a global problem that requires solutions at international, national and local levels. By virtue of Lagos modes of governance, the local government fails to cope with the increasing urban population in the area of housing, labour, infrastructure, health, welfare and economic investments (Dessai, 2003). Lack of political will, official disregard, corruption, poverty and advancing population growth through migration has made Lagos a city with disturbing urbanisation problems. The influx of new inhabitants surpasses the capacity of existing infrastructures. This is due to the uncontrolled migration of people to the city. The administration of the Lagos state government often follows a management of “delayed policy” and lacks focus to basic needs such as waste management and development of drainage channels (Douglas et al., 2008). The inadequate access to waste disposal services forces dwellers to use sewers as dump sites for their refuse which then blocks drains and causes diversion of natural flow. This invariably enhances the local run off of water causing higher flood frequency, increased magnitude and longer duration.

RECOMMENDATION:
The following recommendation will help reduce the impact of flooding in Nigeria: 1. Efforts should be focused towards redesigning cities and effective city planning. 2. Policies should be formulated and awareness programmes should be enhanced. 3. Environmental planning should be integrated into school curriculums and at all levels of the educational system. 4. Education of the public to raise the level of awareness and reduce the effects of hazard in the country should be pursued (NEMA, 2012). 5. Environmental funds should be effectively used and managed by the government and corrupt practices by officials should be stopped. 6. Disaster and emergency policies should be intensified to aid effective disaster preparedness and response (Bashir et al., 2012). 7. There should be an alliance between government, communities, NGO’s, voluntary organisations, local and international donors to help manage the impacts of flood disasters.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION:
The problems encouraging the vulnerability of cities to flooding are diverse. The recent cases of flooding in Lagos and other parts of Nigeria stress the issue of vulnerability and adaptation to disasters caused by natural events as a result of climate change. The crude coping mechanism currently employed by the urban poor will become less effective as growing fragile livelihood battle to cope with the impacts of natural hazards. Adaptation to the impact of disasters requires the empowerment of institutions, effective management of public funds and resources, and the development of human capital. The city of Lagos exhibits varying characteristics which make it one of the most vulnerable cities in the world with it constant negative impact of environmental emergencies and extreme weather events (Olorunfemi, 2011). Flood disasters are becoming incessant in most Nigerian cities and the government have been unable to proffer solutions to this public health menace (Bashir et al., 2012). The urban poor are becoming more exposed to environmental hazards thereby making them more vulnerable to social and economic challenges. The persistent flooding in Nigeria challenges the attainment of the millennium development goals. Government negligence on issues relating to climate change adds up to the compounding problem. Effective management of flood and other disasters is crucial which will only be made possible through proper disaster planning, management and monitoring. The pre-disaster phase of prevention, preparedness and mitigation, often neglected by the Nigerian government are vital issues to tackling the menace of flooding. Although the post-disaster aspects of relief and response are equally important, working on the pre-disaster aspects are better at effectively managing the effects of environmental hazards.

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