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'''The Impact of Agriculture on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1980-2014 '''

1.0	Background of the Study Agriculture continues to play a dominant role in economic development. Agriculture is the basic foundation of any industrial economic revolution in that, aside providing for the food needs of man, it supplies the raw materials that are inputs in the production process. The World Development Report (2013), Agricultural growth was the precursor to the industrial revolution that spread across the temperate world, from England in the mid-18th century to japan in the late 19th century. The report also noted that the recent rapid agricultural growth in countries like China, India and Vietnam as the precursor to the rise of industry. In countries where agricultural activity is at an increasing level, it generates taxable surplus that compliments government revenue. It is then no doubt to say that in many developed countries of the world, agriculture stood as the foundation for their development. In the African circle, agriculture holds a great potential to serve as an engine of faster growth and poverty reduction in the region. This is because Africa is blessed with cultivable land, huge population and favorable climate which when fully utilized can plunge most of the countries on the pedestal of economic growth and development. A fact sheet published by the International Food Policy Research Institute in 2009 revealed that, ‘in most African countries, agriculture is the engine of economic growth, and agricultural growth is the corner stone of poverty reduction. Approximately sixty-five percent of Africans rely on agriculture as their primary source of livelihood. Small scale farmers are responsible for more than ninety percent of Africa’s agricultural production’. In the contemporary, agriculture accounts for 30 to 40 percent of Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and almost 60 percent of its total export earnings. Agricultural sector has no doubt contributed to the economic growth and development witnessed in Africa today. This was put in retrospect by Fan (2009), stating that agricultural growth rates have increased modestly from about 2.4 percent a year in 1980-1989 to 2.7 percent in1990-1999 and 3.3 percent a year since 2000. This is impressively outstanding and factual to note that the level of growth in agricultural productivity increased in response to the level of government expenditure in the sector. Nigeria is obviously not left out of the statistics; agriculture remained a dominant aspect of the Nigerian economy, though it has experienced a worsened decline in the wake of crude oil. Prior to the discovery and subsequent exploration of crude oil in the seventies, agriculture gave Nigeria a pride of place among the committees of Nation. In spite of the growing importance of crude oil, Nigeria has remained essentially an agrarian economy, with agriculture still accounting for shares in the GDP and total exports as well as employing the bulk of the labor force (Talabi, 2014). The agricultural productivity and contributions to national economic growth has been on the decline. Available data shows that agriculture which contributed over 60 percent of the GDP in 1960 was contributing about 25 percent between 1975 and 1979. This study does not seek to identify the factors affecting agricultural productivity in Nigeria; rather, it seeks to evaluate the impact of agriculture in economic growth in Nigeria from 1980-2014.

2.0	Overview of Agriculture in Nigeria Nigeria as a tropical country with favorable climate has right condition for agricultural activities to thrive. Geographically, the country occupies a total area of 92.4 million hectares which includes 91.1 million hectares of land and 1.3 million hectares of water bodies. The agricultural area is 83.6 million hectares, which comprises arable land (33.8 percent), permanently cropped land (2.9 percent), forest or woods (13.0 percent), pasture (47.9 percent), and irrigated land (2.4 percent) (Adetunji, 2006)	. With 65 percent of the citizens living in the rural areas, agriculture is not just a source of food production but a source of livelihood. Over 80 percent of the food needs of Nigerians are provided by the dominated smallholder farms in the country (Fayinka, 2004). This is reflected in the nature of agricultural products produced; food crops which does not need complicated processing such as Rice, Beans, Okra, Cassava etc. are usually cultivated. Agriculture as a sector in Nigerian economy also provides employment for her citizens. These ranges from the farmers that cultivate the crops, the distributors that transport them across the country and the individuals that engage in the business of retailing agricultural products. NBS (2006) identified agriculture as the single largest employer of labor among sectors (70 percent of labor force) and agricultural labor is the main and often times, the only asset for the farm households in the country (Agenor et al. 2003). The nature of agricultural activities in Nigeria is in two broad areas; the peasant or subsistence and commercial agriculture, each with its own distinct features and impact in national output. Peasant farming is the basic characteristics of agricultural practice in Nigeria. Peasant agriculture is also known as subsistence agriculture are usually undertaken to meet household needs. Thus they are produced in small scale with little or no surplus for sale. The target of the subsistence farmer is not to sell his output in the market but to meet his family needs. Peasant agriculture engages 95 percent of Nigerian farmers while farmers employed on corporate and government supported large-scale farms account for only 5 percent (Manyoung et al. 2005). The scale of production in subsistence agriculture is not usually determined by the market forces but the need of the family. The family only produces the crops that it needs and in quantity sufficient for the household. Under this system, small plots of land are cultivated by individual owners or sub-owners following age-old methods without much control of the yields. Traditionally, the farm households use family labor complemented with hired labor for farming operations. However, recent development shows that there is a growing increase in the use of hired labor; labor exchanges are also increasing with other farmers at peak seasons. The rational for this is the increased awareness on the need for education which has driven children to schools and left the farms alone for parents. The development of commercial agriculture in Nigeria has still been at a minimal level but this is a large scale agricultural production aimed at supplying different market outlets. Commercial agriculture usually requires the use of technological equipment and is very expensive The present state of agriculture in Nigeria cannot be effectively understood except the economic history is understood. Agriculture from independence was the most important sector in the economy, providing employment opportunities for the teaming population and supporting domestic production. Most of the industries in Nigeria in the 1960s were agro allied industries which depended on agricultural raw material inputs. This further had a multiplier effect on our foreign exchange earnings. Textile materials, and cash crops were produced in commercial scale and exported to other countries for processing. Though agriculture was done at the local level with crude technology, it was sufficient to meet local demand and had surplus that could be exported to other countries. The National Bureau of Statistics NBS discovered that the feature of Nigerian agriculture includes tree and food crops, forestry, livestock and fisheries. In 1993, food crops produced in the country accounted for 30% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), livestock contributed 5%, forestry and wildlife about 1.3% and fisheries accounted for 1.2% (NBS, 2014).

The growth of agriculture in recent times has been stunted by the overdependence of the nation of crude oil and failure to diversify the economy since the discovery of crude oil in the seventies. Fan (2009) attributed this decline in agricultural productivity to the growth in the mining and manufacturing sector and partly as a result of disincentives created by the macroeconomic environment. From 1980, the decline in agricultural productivity in the country was so poor that domestic production had to be complimented with food importation. The food importation bill of the country which previously stood at 14112.88 million (1974) increased to1964.8 million (1991) with an export of less than 2 percent. The decline in agricultural productivity could not meet the growing demand by household for food supply nor could it meet the growing demand of raw material by agro allied industries. As the industries began to close down and entrepreneurs begin to switch to the already booming manufacturing and real sector, the foreign exchange earnings on agriculture dropped drastically. To curb this trend, the federal government made an attempt on restructuring the countries productive base. The policy was a Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) which was to reduce the growing dependence of the country on crude oil and to diversify the economy. Though the policy was debated among economist and social scientists, it made some impact on boosting agricultural productivity in the short run. The total exports volume increased from 71.5 percent before the introduction of SAP to 84.1 percent with cocoa, palm kernel and rubber taking the lead. There was also appreciable improvement in Nigeria export earning with export earning standing at 143,233.06 million in the nineties. The contribution of Agriculture to the Gross Domestic Product in 2009 was 41.84 percent. In addition, agriculture employs about 70 percent of the countries workforce. The main agricultural products are yams, cassava, cocoa, cattle, rubber, fish and timber. To compliment local consumption of agricultural products which could not be satisfied by local production, the government had to resort to importation. The agricultural importation in the year under review increased by more than three billion dollars, while agricultural export was less than two billion dollars. Major agricultural imports are wheat, rice and sugar are imported from the United States and the European Union. The countries agricultural export commodities are cocoa, beans, rubber and cocoa butter which are exported to the United Kingdom, Canada, France and Germany. In 1960, agriculture constituted 86 percent of the total export volume but the export volumes began to drop sporadically from 3 percent in 1984 to 0.81 percent and 0.2 percent in 2004 and 2008 respectively. The reduction is one of the reason for the government continual shifting of attention to the crude oil sector. Alabi (2003) observed that the progressive reduction and other factors is partly attributed to the withdrawal hitherto given to agriculture due to the heavy dependence on the oil sector since its discovery in the late sixties. These other factors includes; inadequate supply of agricultural inputs for farmers in rural areas, inadequate supply of credit facilities to support cost of agricultural productivity, unavailability of market information on prices and demand, lack of proper extension services, poor adoption of relevant technology by farmers. Inadequate infrastructure to supports; production and storage, the crude nature of agricultural productivity, inefficient policy and program implementation. The low spending in the sector has also affected agricultural productivity and advancement in the nation. The Maputo declaration which stipulates that the share of agricultural expenditure in the budget should not be less than 10 percent does not stimulate agricultural expenses in Nigeria. The share of agriculture in the federal government annual budget ranges between 1.3 percent and 7 percent in 2000 to 2007. This shows that the priority placed by the government on agriculture has been on the decline. The growth in agriculture and its contribution to national economic growth has been on the decline against the requirement of the economy. Over the past 20 years, value added per capita in agriculture has risen by less than 1 percent annually. The average annual growth rate ranged from about 3.3 percent in the 1990s to an average of 6 percent between 2003 and 2007 (CBN, 2008). Most of the current growth rate has been attributed more to an expansion in cultivated land area rather than an increase in productivity (Manyoung et al. 2005). The government has in the last four decades made some notable effort in improving agricultural productivity through the initiation of agricultural schemes and programs. These programs were in the form of economic reforms, targeted at enhancing agricultural productivity. The agricultural policies and programs includes; Commodity Marketing Boards (1947-1986), National Accredited Food Production Project (1970-Date), National Agricultural Corporative Bank (1973-date), Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (1973 to date), Agricultural Development Project (1975 to date), Operation Feed the Nation (1976 to date), River Basin Development Authorities (1977 to date), the Green Revolution ( 1979-1983), Directorate of Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure (1986-1993), National Directorate of Employment Project (1986 to date), National Agricultural Land Development Authority (1991-1999), Structural Adjustment Program ( 1986-1994), Root and Tuber Expansion Project (2005 to date), The National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategies (NEEDS I of 2000-2007 and NEEDS II of 2008 to date), National Special Program for Food Security (2002 to date), and National Fadama I program (2003 to 2007), National Fadama II program (2008 to date), and Presidential initiatives on selected commodities: Cassava, Rice, Cocoa, Vegetable oil, Livestock and Fisheries (1999 - 2007). These programs made appreciable contribution in increasing agricultural productivity but it was not enough to meet the national needs of food security. Empirical records of many of these programs and projects are not impressive enough to bring about the expected transformation of the agricultural sector in the country (Idachaba, 2004).

3. 0	Agricultural Programs in Nigeria: 1980-2014 Although the programs aimed at restructuring agricultural productivity in the country could not maximize its objectives because of some inherent Nigerian problems. One of the identified sources of failure for these programs has been strongly linked to a lack of continuity that characterized their operation and implementation by the successive governments (Tribune, 2010). In this section, we would do a review of some key programs as well as their impact and contribution to national economic growth. The policies reviewed were predominately policies made during the military era with the exception of the civilian administration led by Shehu Sahagari between 1979 to 1983. The crux of this policy was aimed at removing some constraint affecting agriculture and setting up of appropriate framework for agricultural development. These policies and programs includes;

3.0.1	National Accredited Food Production Project The National Accelerated Food Production Program (NAFPP) was one of such program which was targeted at improving agricultural extension program. The core issue was that basic research existed on improved agricultural practices but there wes no effective mechanism to distribute it to the farmers, thus the need for the facilitation of extension services. The program was launched by the Federal Department of Agriculture, under the leadership of General Yakubu Gowon in 1972. The objective of the NAFPP program was to stimulate a significant increase in the production of staple foods; wheat, rice, maize and cassava. The target was that the northern states where huge percentages of the farmers engage in subsistence agriculture would drive the attainment of the goals within a short period of time. By the program design, the program was to spread from the northern states across other states of the federation. The workability of the program was tested with the establishment of pilot centers in states such as Anambara, Imo, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun Plateau and Kano states. The pilot centers were supplied with production kits as well as mini kits in the first phase of the program but the program ended abruptly due to some challenges encountered. These challenges include; •	Poverty of farmers to continue with the other phase of the program. The delivery of the kits was the first stage which was funded by the government. The other two stages which involved cultivation and production were to be handled by the farmers who could not cope because of the huge financial implication and poverty. This dissuaded farmers from participating in the program. •	Problems of organization. The farmers were scattered across different geographical areas, hence it was difficult for most of them to form cooperative societies. The formation of cooperative society was necessary to access disbursed loans and farm inputs. The inability of farmers to form cooperative societies led to the partial collapse of the program. •	The inconsistency of the Nigerian government was also another key factor that affected this program. The government did not wait for the NAFPP program to mature before venturing into the operation feed the nation program which overrides the later. •	There was insufficient research information to drive the efficiency of the programs. The researchers only based on samples from a selected location which was not a true reflection of the agricultural condition of the different part of Nigeria. Hence, most of the test kits were failures. In addition, there was no effective feedback mechanism from the extension workers to allow for adjustment and improvement of the program which eventually led to its collapse.

3.0.2	Agricultural Development Projects (ADP): ADP was established in 1989 and made outstanding contribution to agricultural productivity that motivated the government to expand the programs to cover about nineteen states in the federation. The ADP sprouted from the Integrated Agricultural Development Projects (IADP) which was in operation since its establishment in 1974, with operations in the North West, North East and North Central. The pilot schemes were resident in Funtua, Gusau and Gombe. The approach of the ADP was to build a collaborative force that would be sufficient to drive agricultural productivity in the country. Hence, there was a partnership and tripartite arrangement between the Federal government, the state government and the World Bank. Till date, the ADP is one major program that has impacted agricultural and rural development in Nigeria owing to its reliance on small scale farmers as the bane for increase in food production. The feedback mechanism was very efficient, it allows a decentralized decision making process that allow farm families to respond to an innovation, technology and subsidy in a way that reflects their personal judgment. The objectives of the program are to bring about solution to the decrease in agricultural productivity by sustaining domestic food supply, through massive infusion of World Bank funds, the ADPs were established to provide extension services, technical input support and rural infrastructure (Ayoola, 2001) to the farmers/rural dwellers. The program was not without some challenges which are; •	The problem of funding, associated with the fall in oil prices in 1982. This further resulted in inadequate funding for research and operation of the programs. Competent staff could not be recruited and it inhibited the implementation of the program. •	The emphasis of the ADP was on the use of modern agricultural input technology which can only be done with large farm size and the practice of mono-cropping. This brought huge cost implications to the farmers who mostly produce on scattered farmlands and practices mixed cropping. •	There were challenges emanating from the declining inability of the government to provide subsidies for the farmers. There was also poor supply of subsidized inputs like fertilizer for farmers, resulting in low output from the scheme. •	Other challenges includes; frequency of labor mobility, limited involvement of input agencies, dwindling funding policies and counterpart funding, intricacies of technology transfer etc.

3.0.3	Green Revolution (GR) Shehu Shagari inaugurated the Green Revolution in April 1980. The program was intended to leverage on the vast agricultural potential of the country to increase the production of basic food and raw materials in order to ensure self-sufficiency and food security of the nation. In addition there was gross decline in livestock production which the program was intended to boost. The program was intended to stimulate the production of fish and other livestock to meet the domestic and export needs of the country. This was to tap into the economic diversification of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings through production and processing of export crops. As part of the program, agrochemicals, improved seedlings, irrigation system, mechanization, credit facilities, improved marketing and pricing policy were guaranteed by the government, leading to success in the program. There were some challenges in the attainment of the program objectives. The major problem was delay in the execution of most of the projects outlined in the project. This was a major problem because of the seasonal nature of agriculture in Nigeria. Secondly, the corruption in the agricultural sector coupled with poor monitoring and evaluation of projects affected the projects.

3.0.4	Directorate for Food Roads and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI) The Directorate was initiated in Nigeria in January 1986 under General Ibrahim Babangida’s administration as an effort to set up institutional bases for agricultural operation and coordination in the country. It was a domestic principle that follows the social dimensions of adjustment (SDA) that was embarked upon in most Sub-Saharan African countries in consonance with World Bank, African Development Bank and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The program was designed to improve the quality of life and standard/level of living of the rural dwellers through the use of many resources that exist in the rural areas and mass participation of the rural people to ensure improvement in nutrition, housing, health, employment, road, water, industrialization etc. The poor quality of infrastructures provided by the directorate probably due to corruption and mismanagement of fund affected the impact of the program. Some social scientist like Idachaba (1988) noted the program was marred by lack of proper focus and program accountability.

3.0.5	Better Life Program (BLP) For Rural Women In many of the agrarian communities in Nigeria, women are key players in the agricultural sector. Though they are neglected and marginalized along cultural lines, the government believed that by repositioning and empowering women, agricultural productivity can be effectively enhanced. This necessitated the creation of the Better Life Program by Maryam Babangida in 1987. The focus of BLP was to motivate the rural women to achieve better living standard and sensitization of the populace on the challenges and plight of women. Other focus of the program was captured by Obasi and Oguche (1995) as raising consciousness about the right of women, availability of opportunity and facilities, socio-economic and political responsibilities, encourage the rejuvenation and enrichment of family life, open new channels of self-development such as in education, business arts crafts and agriculture. Apart from some part of the north, the program made achievement in the development of agriculture. A lot of women went into food processing business and crop production. The major limitation was in some part of the north where the purdah system disallowed women from actively participating in agriculture viz-a-viz economic activities.

3.0.6	Other Efforts to Boost Agricultural Productivity. There are also other agricultural programs that were put in place during the period under review to sustain the impact of the agricultural sector in the economy. The National Agricultural Land Development Authority was established in 1992 to provide strategic public support for land development, assisting and promoting better uses of Nigeria’s rural land and their resources, boosting profitable employment opportunities for rural dwellers, raising the level/standard of living of rural people, targeting and assisting in achieving food security through self-reliance and sufficiency. This was to mitigate the challenge of land accessibility to farmers in the country. In addition, the federal government initiated the National Fadama Project in the early nineties as part of strategies to formulate policies to attain poverty reduction, private sector leadership and beneficiary participation. The program had impact on crop production, as low cost irrigation technology was utilized in twelve states where desertification was taking a toll on agricultural productivity. Other programs have also impacted agricultural productivity since 1999 to date. The National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) which was established by the Obasanjo led administration was one policy that has reshaped the agricultural sector and maintained its impact in national development. The policy was able to coordinate federal effort with the states through the establishment of the State Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (SEEDS). Finally there was also the National, Special Program on Food Security (NSPFS) and Root and Tuber Expansion Program (RTEP) which was established in 2002 and 2003 respectively. While the former was established across the thirty six states of the federation to boost crop production via government incentives and subsidies, the later was targeted at solving the problem of food production and poverty in twenty six states of the country.  4.0	Impact of Agriculture on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Empirical evidences have pointed to the impact of agriculture on economic growth. A rise in agricultural productivity had a multiplier effect on the level of economic growth in Nigeria. A study conducted by Hayami and Ruthan (1985) revealed that agricultural productivity growth requires fostering the linkages between the agricultural and non- agricultural sectors. The possibility of agriculture to contribute to economic growth was identified by Adelman (1984) who stated that the strong growth linkage effects of agricultural development can lead to a wider economic growth in many countries and allows for the evolution along the stages industrialization. Hirschman (1958) was one of the theorists to emphasize linkage effect in the growth process although his analysis focused mainly on the backward and forward linkages created by investment in industrial sectors. Godoy and Dewbree (2010) are also of the view that agricultural development plays a vital role in poverty reduction and economic transformation. Agricultural growth reduces poverty through direct impacts on farm incomes and employment while indirect impacts are through linkages. The importance of intersectional linkage in the growth process had already been widely recognized. The impact of agriculture in the Nigerian economy could be discussed under the following thematic areas; (a)	Employment Creation With the period under review (1980-2014) agricultural sector still provides employment population in the country. With employment, individuals get to contribute to the national output thereby stimulating economic growth. The labor force when categorized by sector, the service sector employs 32% of the labor force, Manufacturing 11% while agriculture employs 30% of the labor force in spite of inadequate attention placed on it (Wikipedia, 2014). Similarly, 11.5% of the labor force was employed in the industrial sector in 2005 compared to 44.6% of the labor force employed in the agricultural sector in that same year (UN data, 2014) world statistics pocket book, 2014 data.un.org/countryprofile.aspx).

(b)	Foreign exchange Despite the dominance of crude oil, agriculture continues to serve as a buffer to foreign exchange. The sector accounts for diverse items that can be traded with other countries and improve the country balance of trade. As Ismail (2014) puts it, agricultural sector ranks second; as Nigeria most important earner of foreign exchange after petroleum, and contributes about 38 percent (38%) to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

(c )	Gross Domestic Product. Agriculture has made tangible impact on the growth of the country’s GDP in recent time. The National Planning Commission (2014) in  its report asserted that agriculture as a sector contributed N348.7 billion to the Nigerian economy in 2012 against the N335.18 billion in 2011. This figure indicated an increase in the growth rate from 3.97% to 5.64% in 2012. An evaluation of the report revealed that the growth was led by crop production which accounts for 20.4% of overall economic growth in 2012. This figure would no doubt be different in the current period owing to the increased insecurity in the northern region which accounts for bulk of the Nigerian agricultural production.

5.0	Summary/Conclusion The essay has been able to discover the impact of agriculture in national economic growth. For Nigeria to plunge its economy into an era of economic development, the country has to develop policies to counteract factors that have affected the impact of agriculture in the national economic growth, owing to the fact that agriculture was the foundation of the Nigerian economy before the era of the oil boom. The strategic plans and program introduced to reposition the sector should be effectively implemented for the maximization of the program objectives. Only agriculture aside the oil sector can contribute to the much desired level of employment if all forms of corruption bedeviling the public sector can be eliminated. The deterioration of the agricultural sector has led to huge deficits on the importation front. Over the couple of years, Nigeria import bill on agriculture has been on the rise with basic food and cash crops imported. Nigeria drive towards economic diversification could be well achieved by exploring the possibility in the agricultural sector. There is therefore the need to reduce the level of imports and to increase local production in the country. Economic transformation as a result of agricultural development provides increased employment for the labor source and stimulates social investments in the country Nigeria has the capacity to stimulate agricultural sector in a way that it would compete favorably with crude oil in the earning of foreign exchange. This can be achieved by the increment of agriculture spending coupled with the availability of different agricultural inputs that are pre-requisite for increased output, productivity and income. The government has to provide subsidies for farmers through direct or input subsidies and there is need for increased private sector investments in the agriculture. Dangote is noted for the establishment of agro allied processing companies, such trends must be sustained by the government providing the right environment and framework for the policy to thrive. There also needs to be revision to current import and export regulations making it more convincing for other countries to accept agricultural products from Nigeria. With a historically favorable climate, adequate labor to engage in production and sufficient resources (fertile land) that can drive agricultural productivity, the government with the right political will can reposition the economy to sustain the country. Finally, there is a window of opportunity for the government to achieve its target of economic self-sufficiency and the vision 20-2020 which is a long term economic plan of positioning Nigeria among the top twenty most developed economy in the world, through the revitalization of agriculture.  Ayoola, G.B. (2001), ‘Essays on The Agricultural Economy 1: A Book of Readings on Agricultural Development Policy and Administration in Nigeria: Ibadan: TMA Publishers.

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