User talk:Richard Arthur Norton (1958- )/Death on Birthday

Great list. But, are you sure the number is 1/366? On the one hand I'd think that rounding to 1/365 is more accurate (leap years come just slightly less frequently than one in every four years). On the other hand, I wonder whether there isn't a birthday effect like the holiday effect, where people tend to survive a day or two past some big day in their lives beyond what one would expect by chance. And then there's a third thing, which is every day you survive (after age 12 or so anyhow) your likelihood of survival goes down. Most people who are over 115, to take an extreme case as an example, is probably less than a year, so someone that age has less of a likelihood of dying on their birthday than someone who is 20. Nightspore (talk) 10:17, 19 March 2015 (UTC)