User talk:S0p5dead

Sam Guest Instructor: Todd, J Political Science 202 11/3/10 Impacts the 2010 Midterm Congressional Elections has on the Presidential Election in 2012 In the 2010 midterm congressional elections, the Republican party took control of the House while the Senate remains a Democrat majority. With the House being in control by the the Republicans, it is going to be difficult, if not impossible to pass legislation without some sort of compromise. With the economy at a low and the unemployment rate still high, the people of The United States are looking for government help to strengthen the economy. President Obama has tried to strengthen the economy with the $800 million dollar stimulus bill. Matt Bai, a New York Times reporter, states in his article about the President, Debt-Busting Issue May Force Obama Off Fence, “And in virtually every case, he has satisfied pretty much no one.” With the 2012 presidential election in two years, both parties will need to gain the approval of the American people to succeed in the election. The outcome of the 2010 midterm congressional election shows that the 2012 presidential election will be based upon which party can demonstrate that they are going to help the economy grow and act upon the self-interests of the people. Many are attempting to draw upon historical context to predict the outcome of the next presidential election. Some people believe that Obama will be a one term President. Marc Pascal, a writer for The Moderate Voice in: economy, law, politics, and society, states in his opinion piece, Obama will be a one-term President, “2010 is not a parallel to 1994, 1894, or to any other noteworthy year identified by various pundits across the political spectrum. What worked sufficiently well in the 1980’s and the 1990’s for Presidents Reagan and Clinton will not be appropriate for the myriad of challenges facing our nation in 2010 and beyond.” Pascal relates Obama to be more like Presidents Hoover and Carter who were “one-term” Presidents. Pascal compares President Obama with Hoover by stating, “The start of the Great Recession began before the presidential elections.” Pascal looks back with President Hoover and relates his presidency with Obama's, “Contrarily President Hoover was elected before the 1929 collapse and his efforts, over the next 3 years were wholly unsuccessful in extricating the U.S. from a deep and structural Depression. This huge failure naturally resulted in the 1932 election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Democrats running things for the next 16 years.” In Pascal's analysis, he concluded that looking back to President Hoover's presidency as well with President Carter's presidency, Obama would suffer the same fate as they did by only serving one term as president. However, not everyone agrees with Pascal's conclusion. Historical analysis shows that this can swing in Obama's favor. Using the opposite argument, you could say that President Clinton took a huge blow in the 1994 midterm elections of his presidency with a loss of 52 House seats along with eight Senate seats, thus putting Clinton's Presidential agenda in jeopardy. With President Clinton's popularity down in the 1994 midterm elections, President Clinton was able to meet halfway with the Republican legislature allowing him to win the 1996 presidential election. Also in 1938, the biggest loss in midterm election history, President Franklin D. Roosevelt lost 71 House seats and six Senate seats. With Roosevelt suffering tremendous losses in his 1938 midterm election, he was still able to run and continue in office for his third and fourth terms. Another President who won re-election after a huge blow in the midterm election is Harry Truman. President Truman lost 45 House seats and 12 Senate seats during the 1946 midterm election but still won re-election in 1948. With President Obama loosing a historical 63 House seats and six Senate seats in the 2010 midterm elections, history shows it does not mean President Obama will loose re-election in 2012 due to losses in the last midterms. The economy in the United States is currently at a standstill. With President Obama signing the stimulus bill, the free-falling economy was saved from further peril. People in The United States are not satisfied with the way that Obama is handling the economy. Updated on December 1, 2010 Obama has approval ratings of 25 percent strong support, but he still faces a high 42 percent disapproval (Rasmussum Reports). With Obama having such a high percentage of those against his policies, he will need to attempt to meet with the Republicans halfway on upcoming legislation. At this moment in time Obama is having little luck compromising with the Republicans. Tamara Lytle quotes President Obama in an AARP bulletin, “We're going to need to work together — Democrats and Republicans and independents — to get it all done. But, you know what, so far we're not seeing that from the other party”. Lytle also states, “The combination of voter rage and the newly invigorated Republican House majority means that many of the grand plans Obama had for the second half of his term likely will be unrealized. Instead, he will spend time defending existing programs like health care reform, and finding areas where he can work with Republicans.” Obama realizes that he will have to agree with some Republican ideals in order to have a chance at passing anymore legislation in the second part of his presidential term. Even with Obama attempting to make a compromise with the Republicans, the GOP still remains strong in their legislative goals. Philip Elliot, Associated Press, states in his article, GOP digs in heels, sets stage for gridlock, “Republicans have made clear they plan to work stridently against what they view as a White House out of control and out of touch.” History shows that in the past, Presidents who lost a great number of seats in their midterm congressional elections, still had a chance in winning a re-election. Obama will need to work with the GOP in a compromise or else there will be gridlock in effect. The GOP will also need to work on a compromise with President Obama in order to pass legislation as the Republicans now are going to be held responsible as they have a majority in the House. One piece of legislation that the GOP is vowing to repeal or make major revisions to is the health law, commonly known as “Obamacare”. Mary Carey of MSNBC quotes Robert Reischauer, president of the Urban Institute, and former director of the Congressional Budget Office, “There might be a little bit of barking dog catches car, doesn't know what to do because it's not like the aspects of the law that Republicans find objectionable can be excised cleanly and neatly like a tumor from the body, leaving the parts that might be more popular,”. The 2010 midterm congressional elections' outcome shows that the American people want to see change in Congress. The changes in the 2010 midterm elections not only put more pressure on Obama but also the GOP since they now have a majority in the House. The presidential election now depends on which party can show the American people that their self-interests are not being ignored and that the economy will benefit from them being in office.

Sources The American Presidency Project, Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/mid-term_elections.php Matt Bai, New York Times, November 30, 2010, Debt-Busting Issue May Force Obama Off Fence, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/01/us/politics/01bai.html?_r=1&ref=politics Marc Pascal, The Moderate Voice, November 8, 2010, Obama will be a one-term President, http://themoderatevoice.com/91701/obama-will-be-a-one-term-president/ Rasmussen Reports, December 1, 2010, Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Tamara Lytle, AARP Bulletin, November 3, 2010, Obama's Grand Plans Face Troubled Time, http://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-11-2010/elections_impact_on_obamas_agenda.html Phillip Elliot, Associated Press, November 8, 2010, GOP digs in heels, sets stage for gridlock, http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-11-08/news/24820899_1_sets-stage-health-care-law-resurgent-republicans Mary Carey, MSNBC News, September 22, 2010, Republicans want to repeal health law - but can they?, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39295110/ns/health-health_care/