User talk:Snd0/Archive 1

With a simple exponential model (not the best fit, I know), the whole human population will be dead in 2 years. It seems to me that a much, much larger sense of urgency should be given to dealing with this disease. DATE	Predicted DEAD 20-Mar-14	58 20-Apr-14	111 20-May-14	211 20-Jun-14	402 20-Jul-14	765 20-Aug-14	1,459 20-Sep-14	2,781 20-Oct-14	5,300 20-Nov-14	10,102 20-Dec-14	19,253 20-Jan-15	36,697 20-Feb-15	69,943 20-Mar-15	133,311 20-Apr-15	254,090 20-May-15	484,292 20-Jun-15	923,054 20-Jul-15	1,759,329 20-Aug-15	3,353,258 20-Sep-15	6,391,267 20-Oct-15	12,181,671 20-Nov-15	23,218,107 20-Dec-15	44,253,411 20-Jan-16	84,346,427 20-Feb-16	160,763,196 20-Mar-16	306,412,567 20-Apr-16	584,018,379 20-May-16	1,113,131,455 20-Jun-16	2,121,614,114 20-Jul-16	4,043,768,983 20-Aug-16	7,707,371,231


 * Yeah, it's pretty scary. And there are more complex models that suggest even higher numbers (and that's on the Science magazine website) . Their prediction of ~4000 cases by September 4th looks accurate. ~10000 by the 24th... and extrapolated further that's ~150000 by December 4th. Much more pessimistic than your model (if you assume the deaths will be ~50-60% of the # of cases). (Of course there's a large range.)
 * Sadly, just have to wait and see, while everyone at work calls me a crackpot. Snd0 (talk) 18:37, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

Definately not a crack pot, my calcs point to the same..BrianGroen (talk) 10:07, 30 September 2014 (UTC)

Ebola
Scary new information that came to light. Just goes to show it may already be over 20 000 Greetings Brian Just waiting for Guinea then i will update. New figures not heading past 7 000BrianGroen (talk) 10:06, 30 September 2014 (UTC)
 * It does seem likely that it's over 20000 already with the underreported cases in SL and elsewhere (seem legitimate to think so, because the CDC suggests that as well).
 * P.S., glad you're back Snd0 (talk) 21:14, 30 September 2014 (UTC)