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2010 – The Year of Change In Pakistan Military Who replaces General Kiyani and General Tariq

By:	Touheed Awan

1.	Army is a prominent and dominant institution of the country, Army Chief is the most powerful person in the country’s decision making process. In view of the volatile internal situation of the country and Pakistan’s position in regional and international security in the context of extremism has enhanced the role of Army Chief as the central figure. International players are keenly evaluating the selection of next Army Chief both inside Pakistan and beyond. The incumbent Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani is due to handover the baton on November 29, 2010. 2.	In most countries, usually the senior most General is selected for the slot. It is a well entrenched tradition, therefore one can safely predict as to who will be the next Army Chief after examining the list of Senior Generals. In Pakistan, however, complex interactions of various factors determine the selection. It is difficult to predict as to who will be selected. Selection of General Muhammad Zia ul Haq (1976 – 1988), General Abdul Waheed Kakar (1993 – 1996) and General Pervez Musharaf (1998 – 2007) as Army Chief’s surprised many, as these officers were junior. Zia was number seven on the seniority list of Generals, Kakar number five and Musharaf was number three. In the recent past, Prime Minister Sharif appointed Musharaf as the Chief of Army Staff – COAS on October 8, 1998 by superseding Chief of General Staff – CGS, Lieutenant General Ali Kuli Khan, and Quarter Master General Lieutenant General Khalid Nawaz. Sharif's choice of General Musharaf was said to be due to the following :- i.	Overwhelming recuperation by President Tarar and Lieutenant General Nasir (The then Director General Inter Services Intelligence – DG ISI). ii. He had ingratiated himself with Sharif by informing him of the criticism of the functioning of the government by Lieutenant General Ali Kuli Khan and Lieutenant General Khalid Nawaz at the Corps Commander’s conferences, presided over by the then COAS, General Jehangir Karamat. iii. General Iftikhar Ali Khan, brother of Chaudary Nisar Ali Khan and Mian Shahbaz Sharif fancied Musharaf. 3.	The President as Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Pakistan has the authority to appoint Army Chief (Article 243 of the Constitution). The President and Prime Minister as civilian leaders only appoint Chief’s but they have no say in promotion and transfers of senior officers. During the current year, twelve new Lieutenant Generals will be promoted and assigned new postings. This is sole prerogative of General Kiyani and he will bring a new team and shuffle some old positions prior to his retirement. However, next Army Chief will be selected from the senior most Lieutenant Generals. 4.	By observing the personality of General Kiyani it is likely that he will not go for an extension. General Tikka also declined an extension under Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. If General Kiyani accepts extension, he will spoil his reputation and bring despondence in the ranks. He must resist such a temptation to safeguard his outstanding demeanour. General Kiyani’s temperament, dignified and professional conduct in the run up to his own selection as Army Chief suggests that he will refuse extension. If it so happens, it will go a long way in boosting the Army’s image. As the previous acts of General Kiyani has redeemed the glory of Pakistan Army which had nosedived in Pervez Musharaf’s era. 5.	Selection of the Army Chief is usually made from amongst the Infantry and Armour. In some cases, however, Artillery being a supporting arm gets its due, (Pervez Musharaf and Tikka Khan). Nawaz Sharif tried to appoint Lieutenant General Zia Ud din Butt of Engineer Corps in October 1999, which led to the coup by General Pervez Musharaf. Senior Staff Appointment and Command of a Corps are major factors for the selection of COAS. Any officer on extension including a Lieutenant General cannot be promoted to the next rank. The most influential post held by a Lieutenant General is of DG ISI and the most important post is of CGS, both these appointments are presently held by the officer’s who served under General Kiyani when he was a Major General. 6.	One must keep the history of selection of Army Chief’s in view. It is very unlikely that a junior officer be selected. If this happens, it will spell disaster and fiasco as of past. The two important criteria i.e. Command of a Corps and Senior Staff officer appointment narrow down the selection process. A review of Army senior command will give an inkling of the logical candidate. By a critical analysis, the position likely to emerge will be:- i.	Army Senior Command (By October 2010 – As of Seniority and Eligibility) 1)	Lieutenant General Muhammad Masood Aslam SJ, Punjab — Commander, XI Corps, Peshawar. (Colonel Commandant of the Punjab Regiment). On one year extension from October 10, 2009 onwards (an extension has made him in eligible for the next rank). He has not served as Senior Staff officer. 2)	Lieutenant General Sikander Afzal, Armoured Corps — Force Commander, United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), Monrovia, Liberia since October 23, 2009. Due to retire in March 2010. One year extension is granted to him (an extension has made him in eligible for the next rank). He commanded a Corps in Multan, but has not served as Senior Staff officer. 3)	Lieutenant General Khalid Shamim Wayne is a hard task master who comes from an Army background, born on the August 28, 1953 at Abbottabad. A Kashmiri by origin, who is settled in Lahore. His father Colonel Arshad Salim Wayne commanded 20th Punjab Regiment. Khalid joined his father’s battalion and later commanded it.  As a Brigadier, he commanded two infantry brigades including the tough assignment of the command of 323 Brigade in Siachin.  He commanded School of Infantry and Tactics and Quetta based 41st Infantry division.  He also served as Deputy CGS at GHQ.  He is a graduate of Command and Staff College, Pakistan, Command and Staff College, Germany and National Defence College, Pakistan. He is currently commander of Army Southern Command and Quetta based XII Corps. He has commanded a Corps but has not served as Senior Staff officer. 4)	Lieutenant General Syed Absar Hussain, Artillery — Commander, Army Strategic Forces Command (ASFC), Rawalpindi, due to retire on October 22, 2010. This is a relatively new command, which controls country’s nuclear and missile forces. Absar is a gunner who has not commanded any important Division and Corps and has not held any important staff position at Major General and Lieutenant General rank. He might get an extension due to his expertise otherwise he is not eligible. 5)	Lieutenant General Javed Zia, Punjab — Adjutant General (AG), GHQ, due to retire on September 21, 2011. Lieutenant General Javed commanded 19th Division as Major General and then served as Director General (DG) Rangers of Sindh. After serving as Deputy Chief of General Staff (DCGS), he was appointed AG.  He has not commanded a Corps, which renders him in eligible. 6)	Lieutenant General Shujaat Zamir Dar SBt, Punjab — Chairman, Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), Wah Cantonment. Due to retire on September 21, 2011. Lieutenant General Shujaat has performed reasonably well as Inspector General Frontier Corps (IGFC) of Baluchistan but he has neither commanded a Corps nor served as Senior Staff officer, which renders him in eligible. 7)	Lieutenant General Mohsin Kamal is currently serving as Military Secretary (MS) at GHQ. He is from Muzaffarabad and is known for his bravery under fire, competence, and is a highly reputed professional. His father is an educationist. Born at Sialkot in 1953, Mohsin received his early education in Muzaffarabad and Cadet College Hasanabdal. General Mohsin Kamal was commissioned in one of the oldest infantry units, the 17 Punjab Regiment Infantry (Haideri. The unit of Major Raja Aziz Bhatti Shaheed, earlier 9th Bhopal Infantry) in 1972. He is a graduate of Command and Staff College, Pakistan, Defence Services Command and Staff College, Bangladesh and National Defence College, Pakistan. General Mohsin has held various command, staff and instructional appointments during his military career. He has commanded two infantry battalions and an infantry Brigade. He has been a Brigade Major of an infantry Brigade, staff officer at General Headquarters and a Chief of Staff of a Corps. He has held various instructional appointments and remained on the faculty of School of Infantry and Tactics, Pakistan, King Abdul Aziz Military Academy, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Command and Staff College Quetta. He has also been a chief Instructor as well as Commandant of Command and Staff College Quetta for 3 years, from where he went on to become the Commander Force Command Northern Areas (FCNA) Gilgit (Guarding the Northern frontiers, the toughest and the most coveted appointment for a Major General). He has commanded the most important Rawalpindi based X Corps. He fulfils all the criteria’s. 8)	Lieutenant General Jamil Haider, Artillery — Inspector General Arms (IG Arms), GHQ. Due to retire on September 21, 2011. Lieutenant General Jamil is a gunner and has not commanded a Corps, this renders him in eligible. 9)	Lieutenant General Nadeem Taj, Punjab — Commander, XXX Corps, Gujranwala, due to retire on April 28, 2011. He was military secretary to General Pervez Musharaf and held several important appointments under Musharaf. He served as Director General of Military Intelligence, DGMI (Earned fame in the Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry case), commanded 11th Division at Lahore, served as commandant of Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) and then Director General of Inter Services Intelligence (DG ISI). He has commanded a Corps but has not served as Senior Staff officer. His closeness with former President and Army Chief General Pervez Musharaf and being the junior most among the top contenders makes him a less likely candidate. However, Nadeem can be considered the less likely in this race and how this can play out will be described later. 10)	Lieutenant General Tahir Mahmood, a hard task master from Special Service Group who is from Punjab Regiment and is presently appointed as Commander, X Corps, Rawalpindi. Due to retire on September 29, 2011. As Major General he commanded the most important divison guarding the Northern Frontier and Siachin. He has not served as Senior Staff officer. 11)	Lieutenant General Shahid Iqbal, who is from Baloch Regiment presently appointed as Commander, V Corps, Karachi. Due to retire on November 11, 2010. He has not served as Senior Staff officer, this renders him in eligible. 12)	Lieutenant General Zahid Hussain, Artillery — Quarter Master General (QMG), GHQ, due to retire on October 29, 2010. He has not commanded a Corps, this renders him in eligible. 13)	Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, Frontier Force — DG Inter Services Intelligence (DG ISI), ISI Head Quarters, Islamabad. Due to retire on March 18, 2010 (an extension has made him in eligible for the next rank). He has neither commanded a Corps and nor served as the Senior Staff officer. This renders him in eligible. 14)	Lieutenant General Muhammad Mustafa Khan, Armoured Corps — Chief of General Staff (CGS), GHQ, due to retire on October 1, 2010 (an extension will make him in eligible for the next rank). He has not commanded a Corps, this renders him in eligible. 15)	Lieutenant General Ayyaz Saleem Rana, Armoured Corps — Chairman, Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Taxila. Due to retire on September 29, 2012. He has not commanded a Corps, which renders him in eligible. 16)	Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, Engineers — Commander, XXXI Corps, Bahawalpur. Due to retire on October 13, 2011. He has not served as Senior Staff officer, this renders him in eligible. 17)	Lieutenant General Khalid Nawaz Khan, Baloch — Commandant, Command and Staff College (Comdt C&SC), Quetta, due to retire on October 4, 2013. He has neither commanded a corps and nor served as the Senior Staff officer. This renders him in eligible. 18)	Lieutenant General Sardar Mahmood Ali Khan, Punjab — DG Joint Staff (DG JS), JS HQ, Chaklala. Due to retire on October 4, 2013. He has neither commanded a corps and nor served as the Senior Staff officer. This renders him in eligible. 19)	Lieutenant General Muhammad Alam Khattak TBt, Frontier Force — Chief of Logistics Staff (CLS), GHQ, due to retire on October 4, 2013. He has not commanded a Corps, which renders him in eligible. 20)	Lieutenant General Shafqaat Ahmed, Punjab, due to retire on October 4, 2013. Commander, II Corps, Multan. He has not served as Senior Staff officer, which this renders him in eligible. He has been the Military Secretary of Ex President Musharaf. 7.	This now leaves us with two top candidates for the two top positions, Lieutenant General Khalid Shamim Wayne and Lieutenant General Mohsin Kamal. i.	Lieutenant General Khalid Shamim Wayne will be the senior most Lieutenant General when current Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Tariq Majid retires on October 8, 2010. If criterion of service as Senior Staff officer is relaxed, he is expected to be given the post of Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. ii.	Lieutenant General Mohsin Kamal is the only senior Lieutenant General who fulfils all the criteria’s to be the Army Chief. It is very likely that the next Army Chief will be Lieutenant General Mohsin Kamal. 8.	The Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Tariq Majid will be retiring six weeks before General Kiyani retires. If a junior officer is promoted, usually the superseded officers ask for retirement. In order to do away with suspense, the appointment of the new Army Chief is announced at least two months before Kiyani’s retirement then there will be lot more clarity about the process. In my view this is a preferable approach, which will help in smooth transition and will avoid intrigues and bitterness to some extent. One scenario is that Khalid being the senior most is given CJCSC position and six weeks later number two Mohsin becomes Army Chief. If Khalid is the choice then there is a technical hitch and appointment of Mohsin who is junior to Khalid as CJCSC six weeks before Army Chief’s selection becomes problematic. 9.	There is a real possibility that President Zardari or Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani may appoint a senior Air Force or Naval officer to the CJCSC post. The most important aspect is that Army being the senior most in the three services gets the appointment and as for now the important Army Strategic Forces Command (ASFC – controlling the missile and nuclear arsenals) is functioning under the control of Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC). The Naval and the Air Force officers have found it extremely difficult to understand the mechanics and working of Army, which has caused extreme problems in the past. It is essentially a ceremonial post and real decisions are made by the Army Chief, however it is a four star position. 10.	The wild card in this game is Lieutenant General Nadeem Taj and if he is to be nominated as Army Chief, then at the time of the retirement of current CJCSC, which is six weeks before the retirement of Army Chief. Lieutenant General Khalid or Mohsin are appointed as CJCSC and Nadeem as COAS (Thus empowering and opening a way back for Pervez Musharaf). 11.	One can only hope that both Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Muslim League have learned correct lessons from history. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in his quest for absolute power picked the most subservient and junior officer as Army Chief (General Muhammad Zia ul Haq) in 1976 and Nawaz Sharif in 1998 picked an orphan general, who liked his late night parties as Army Chief (General Pervez Musharaf). Bhutto and Sharif thought that their handpicked Army Chief’s would be simply their tool. Zia not only toppled Bhutto but later sent him to gallows. Musharaf toppled Sharif and first sent him to jail for life followed by exile. General Abdul Waheed Kakar was appointed Army Chief by then President Ghulam Ishaque Khan after a bitter fight with then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. However, later when Ishaque created a constitutional crisis in his fight with Sharif, Kakar forced both of them to resign. Kakar didn’t favour his supposed benefactor. Let’s pray that whatever decided is in the better interest of Pakistan. 12.	Whether the appointing authority is President or Prime Minister as long as one of the top two contenders are picked for the CJCSC and COAS post, Army as an institution will accept the decision. If civilian leadership attempts to shuffle the deck of senior brass too much, they risk alienation of Armed Forces and some unintended consequences. In selecting Air Force and Naval chief, President Zardari has followed usual norms and if he follows similar rules in the selection of Army Chief, there should be no negative fallout. Pakistan Army Chief is the most powerful member of the higher decision making process of the country. A smooth transition in the winter of 2010 will be beneficial to both the country’s nascent democratic process and Army. 13.	Post Script. The entire data and material is collected from the newspapers, internet and reconfirmed through various sources with 100 % authenticity. This article is written after consultation of Pakistan Army Laws and Constitution of Pakistan, nothing in the proposed scenario changes because minimum of one year as Corps commander or Senior Staff officer is required by any Lieutenant General for appointment as Army Chief. The data provided in this article is based on the facts and true faith, with complete sincerity to Pakistan. This article can be used by any newspaper or any individual, without any issue of rights.