User talk:ZekoBHF

'''UKRAINE’S ORANGE REVOLUTION

THE AFTERMATH:

Political and Economic Clean-up?''' The third round of elections on December 26 concluded with a 52 percent victory for Viktor Yushchenko and 42 percent for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. Yushchenko began his presidency by cleaning up the executive branch of Yanukovych supporters. On February 4, 2005, he assigned Yulia Tymoshenko as Ukraine’s new Prime Minister after parliament appointed her with a “record-breaking” turnout of 373 votes out of 450. With Tymoshenko involved, Anatolii Hrytsenko, a “civilian intellectual” was appointed as defense and Oleksandr Turchynov, a “close ally”, became head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). The appointment of the new Chief of the Auditing and Inspection Commission, Mykola Syvukskyi, was a suspicious one since he had been arrested while working under Tymoshenko when she had her corruption accusations. With that, other Yushchenko supporters developed “four powerful deputy premierships”: Anatolii Kinakh who represented the Party of Industrialists and Enterprise Bosses and sustained links with industries, Oleh Rybachuk who improved relations with the European Union (EU), Mykola Tomenko who advanced freedom of speech for the mass media, and Taras Stetskiv as head of the national TV company who would form a new public service broadcaster. The new team had some clear goals including keeping business and politics separated, keeping radicals away from education and culture ministries, and keeping major politicians from the east away from the new government. An estimated 18,000 government officials were appointed within four months and organizational changes definitely occurred where agencies were either combined or abolished and deputy ministers were reduced. Yuschenko's and Tymoshenko's strategies have revolved around populism where the goal is to have the government side with the people rather than the oligarchs. The major goals included re-privatization, increased "social expenditures and public wages", and "introducing price controls" with a focus on World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and "integration with the EU".

Economically, there was a “reprivatization” issue where Yushchenko condemned the Kuchma administration for selling “hundreds of enterprises…in a controversial fashion” and Yushchenko then sought to have the state buy these enterprises back and then resell them through “open competition and a fair price”. One of the issues that was reevaluated was the Kryvorizhstal steel mill that was sold for $800 million even though there was a $1.5 billion foreign offer. Investors throughout the West though were wary about the redistribution and changes in property rights even though there were promises of no repeating Yanukovych affairs. Problems with the goal included firstly the selection of properties to re-privatize where Yushchenko wanted to limit the number of enterprises to 30 or less while Tymoshenko and the socialists did not approve of a "pre-determined list" and wanted to go as high as 3,000 cases of privatization. The second issue was figuring out how to re-privatize and options were either by adopting a specific law or by reliance on court system and the debate again was between Yushchenko who preferred by law and Tymoschenko who sought to prosecute criminals through court proceedings. The third problem was how to actually carry out the re-privatization process where Tymoschenko advocated for state seizure of the properties and for enterprises to be re-nationalized while Yushchenko wanted to offer a process where current owners had to pay "the government for the right to keep their enterprise". The re-privatization program had "economic, moral, legal, and political repercussions" with decreasing investment and economic growth to the extent of being called "economic anarchy". Investors were skeptical about investing in companies because of the alternating debate of re-privatization and also because some believed the process would open up opportunities for "attractive properties" so they saved the cash for these so-called opportunities. With that, a memorandum for re-privatization was signed on June 16, 2005 that guaranteed ownership rights determined only by the legislation.

Along with privatization issues, there were issues of “serious budgetary deterioration” where domestic borrowing grew to half the entire year’s budget just in February alone. With that, the 2005 budget was passed in March and it included a 50 percent increase in welfare spending and in public sector wages that included a “tenfold increase in payments to new mothers”. The fiscal policy in Ukraine was also overwhelmed with problems. Yanukovych had left behind doubled pensions for Yushchenko's term that went from 9 percent of GDP in 2004 to 16 percent in 2005. One of Yushchenko's election promises included a balanced budget along with a reduction in taxes so the administration imposed solutions such as reduction in the profit tax for certain industries were eliminated. Other changes in tax regulation were in March of 2005 when a law was enacted that forced "small entrepreneurs to pay value-added taxes and then also to keep accounts of income that had to be taxed. The many tax burdens are difficult to maintain for the new government.

East and West Divide

There was no doubt, the divisions between East Ukraine and West Ukraine contributed to all three rounds of the election. While the new government excluded real easterners, they even lacked nationalists to create a national identity. Governors in the east were replaced within months of Yushchenko's inauguration and Yanukovych's prize city, Donetsk, was especially not satisfied with their new president. Head of Yanukovych's party and chair of Donetsk council, Borys Kolesnykov, was arrested in 2005 over a confusion of accusations such as extorting shares, ordering three assassination attempts, and for his involvement in the "separatism case". There were more investigations against businessman and politicians in the east than any other area in Ukraine. The east-west divide still continues today and was especially predominant when Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych went head to head again in presidential elections in 2010. Donetsk is a "pro-Russian industrial city" with coal miners and Yanukovych likes to keep ties with Russia while Tymoshenko is "pro-Western" and appeals to liberals in the west. Yanukovych ended up winning the election and in recent months, he is struggling with western ideals. In 2012, the question being asked is 'Should Ukraine should move East or West?' since Yanukovych failed to bring Ukraine closer EU membership. The two major differences are not right-wing versus left-wing politics but rather "European choice" versus "closer links with Russia and "between liberal and oligarchic capitalism”.

The International Implications

Russia: Regardless of the influence and intervention, Russia claimed not to have taken sides in the election. While there was debate, Yanukovych’s campaign slogans included “Ukraine – Russia; Stronger Together” and Russian President Putin appeared to be thinking about the geopolitics and Russia’s influence as a regional hegemony. Clearly, there was slightly more support for Yanukovych than for Yushchenko since Russians were afraid of a domestic revolution because of Yuschenko’s pro-democracy coalition. Russia’s participation included “energy cutoffs and stoking separatism among Ukraine's 20 percent Russian minority”. Russia has attempted to recover its past Soviet influence for some time now and Ukraine is still debating between a communist mindset and democracy and capitalism.

Economics and Energy: An attempt to increase Russia's regional hegemon position was their use of energy resources as a political influence to control “the economies and infrastructures of the former Soviet region”. With that, the Russians never gave up “control of the pipeline system in the former Soviet states” that allowed them to supply energy to the former states at “prices below international levels”. The motive to these types of decisions can be the mindset of the Russian politicians. Thomas Remington in Politics in Russia compares the relationship between Russia and its former Soviet states to the United States and Latin America where the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 declared the United States had "exclusive prerogatives" over the Latin American region. A similar relationship can be applied to Russia and its former Soviet states where privilege is exclusive to the Russians and why the Russians feel obligated to be a regional power to these states.There's self-interests involved and through Russia's energy supplies, it is able to create incentive for positive regional relations. Ukraine spent $1 billion in 2011 of imported gas “set in the January 2009 Ukrainian-Russian gas contract negotiated by Prime Ministers Yulia Tymoshenko and Putin” and later the Yanukovych administration prepared a “gas consortium in return for a Russian ‘discount’ on the gas price”.

While there’s still a deep link between the two Soviet countries, the Orange Revolution adopted a method of ‘Ukrainization’ where Russian was banned in university exams and on national television. A sense of nationalism away from Russian identity has been developed. With the “distinct new national consciousness”, Ukrainians are more aware of their right to participate in voting and politics.

United States: There were many accusations of Western interference in the Orange Revolution to the extent that the argument was made the entire occurrence was “made in the USA” due to the amount of funding the United States and other western countries provided which estimated to about $65 million. Along with the US government, organizations such as Freedom House, Carnegie Foundations and various Ukrainian communities throughout the United States contributed to this attempt to influence. The United States and the multiple organizations want to support good government and contribute to a spread of democracy and basic freedoms such as fair elections. The investments contributed to the outcome of the election and Yushchenko’s victory, but the money lacked long term influence when Yanukovych was re-elected in 2010 and his opponent and former Prime Minister Tymoshenko was jailed. The US State Department called the arrest ‘politically motivated’ and condemned the “inhuman” treatment in the courtroom and prison.

European Union: When Yushchenko addressed the European Parliament on February 23, 2005 in Brussels with a speech called "Ukraine's future is in the EU", he said: '' We know that the largest part of the work needs to be done on our side. Without action from us, the EU's support will not help us. But we already have a plan of action for the next five years with EU membership as our objective. We want a transparent economy, alleviation of taxes, less corruption and an independent media and judiciary. While I am President, no one will hear of human rights abuses in Ukraine. We also have much work to do to adapt our administration to European standards. We have plans for important social reforms, for judicial reform, to tackle illegal immigration and the drugs trade. All these will be based on human rights and respect for the dignity of human beings.''

The European Union was slow to progress Ukraine's membership afterwards, but EU does not deny it would like to go "beyond mere bilateral co-operation" and push forward to "economic integration and a deepening of political co-operation". With that, at the Paris Summit in 2008 began negotiations on an EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and pushed forward the EU-Ukraine Association Agenda in November 2009. Recently in 2011 and 2012, a list of '90 priorities for action" was jointly agreed by Ukraine and the EU which includes sections on Democracy, rule of law, human rights and fundamental freedoms, Combating Corruption, Foreign and Security Policy, Energy co-operation including nuclear issues. With that, President Yanukovych said in April 2012 that Ukraine was "ready to proceed without delay to the phase of signing and ratifying the agreement" but that the association agreement does not have "a clear perspective of accession”. He continued with "the establishment of a free trade zone should be accompanied by aid for a modernization of the Ukrainian economy" but the EU is still skeptical given former Prime Minister Tymoshenko's arrest and violations of democracy within the state.  NATO: Ukraine has a good amount to offer the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) specifically heavy military transport planes which explains why in April 2005 the NATO summit offered Ukraine an "Intensified Dialogue" on their potential membership. NATO even offered to help Ukraine on its internal reforms since the country has the potential to be a major player in Euro-Atlantic security in NATO-led operations. There were mixed feelings about NATO integration but Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers finally approved an action plan in 2010 which consists of "five sections which include political and economic issues of cooperation, military issues, resources, security and legal aspects”.

CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES Democratic legitimacy and rule of law was questioned after the Orange Revolution when the Parliament of Ukraine (Verkhovna Rada) amended the constitution twice on December 8, 2004 and on September 30, 2010. The transition included political reform that changed "the organization of state...from the presidential-parliamentary to the parliamentary-presidential form". Ukraine attempted to create a solution for the 2004 presidential election problems but the constitutional amendments failed to make an effective checks-and-balances system. With possible integration with the EU and other European standards, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine overturned the amendments on October of 2010”.

A REVOLUTION?:

Andrew Wilson’s book, Ukraine's Orange Revolution, concludes with a chapter entitled “Revolution Number 5”. He mentions Theda Skocpol and her definition of revolution which is "rapid, basic transformations of society's state and class structures...accompanied and in part carried through by class-based revolts from below". Wilson mentions it is still uncertain in Ukraine “whether the undoubted generational change and apparent initial sense of purpose in the new government would usher in long-term social and economic change”. He uses the term “revolution” proudly because he says “there was a real desire for regime change, not just for a new president”. While the desire was there, the overall outcome is not yet clear. He also says there was a “change in political culture” where a Ukrainian identity was created and collective action in support of a candidate was motivated. Along with that, Wilson mentions there was a revolution against semi-authoritarian quasi-democracy and that the population was fed up with trying to be convinced that “there is no alternative” in administrative control. He also brings in the idea of the influence of media where people used “the internet and texting technologies to coordinate action” along with NGOs interacting with their sites to spread information. Andrew Wilson focuses on the what “could have become a very different country” rather than what it has become.

 Ukraine Today:

Headlines such as "Opposition rally against 'rigged' poll" now appear to be common in Ukrainian elections. Recently in October 2012, Ukraine held parliamentary elections where international observers say the election was overwhelmed with "abuse of power and excessive role of money" and in response thousands of protestors went to the streets while authorities deny the claims. U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized the parliamentary elections and their prosecution of political opponents such as Yulia Tymoshensko. Politically, Ukraine appears to still struggle with basic legitimacy and credibility in free and fair elections. At the same time, Ukraine is battling an "economic slowdown" with their currency and is seeking financial help from the International Monetary Fund to pay off debt that it borrowed. The goal appears to convince IMF to help "pay off around $10 billion in foreign debts next year, over half of which is owed to the Washington-based lender" and one of the solutions appears to be a rise in household gas costs and in heating tariffs. After the Orange revolution there was an expectation of change, a desire for change, and then a clear demand for something other than ‘pseudo-democratic regimes’. Many scholars believe it is too early to tell which direction political reform and stability will go and if those changes will stay permanent. Ukraine portrays an image of democracy but does not set the ideology into motion.

Wilson, Andrew. 2005. Ukraine’s Orange Revolution. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.

Wilson, p. 162. Wilson, p. 162-3. Wilson, p. 163. Wilson, p. 163. Wilson, p.165. Aslund, Anders. "The Economic Policy of Ukraine After the Orange Revolution." Journal of Economic Literature 46.5 (2005): 327-53. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 29 July 2005. Web. 1 Dec. 2012. .

Aslund, Anders. p 339. Wilson, p. 166. Wilson, p.165. Aslund, Anders. p.341. Aslund, Anders. p.342. Aslund, Anders. p.342. Aslund, Anders. p.342. Aslund, Anders. p.342. "Ukraine to Guarantee Property Rights." Intellinews ISI Emerging Markets. Euromoney Institutional Investor, 17 June 2005. Web. 2 Dec. 2012. .

Wilson, p. 166. Wilson, p. 166-7. Aslund, Anders. p. 345. Aslund, Anders. p. 346. Aslund, Anders. p. 346. Wilson, p. 168. Pilat, Piotr, and Lyuba Sorokina. "Ukraine's Election Highlights Its East-west Divide." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 05 Feb. 2010. Web. 01 Dec. 2012. .

Pilat, Piotr, and Lyuba Sorokina. "Ukraine EU Wishes Blocked." Euronews. N.p., 19 Oct. 2012. Web. 1 Dec. 2012. Wilson, p. 168-9. Wilson, p. 93-5. Nemtsova, Owen Matthews,Anna. "The End of Orange." The Daily Beast. Newsweek, 08 Jan. 2010. Web. 02 Dec. 2012. . Remington, Thomas F. Politics in Russia. New York: Pearson Longman, 2011. Print. Remington, Thomas F. p. 254. Kuzio, Taras. "Russia’s Growing Influence in Ukraine: Economics and Energy." Eurasia Daily Monitor 9.83 (2012): n. pag. The Jamestown Foundation. 2 May 2012. Web. 2 Dec. 2012. Kuzio, Taras. Kuzio, Taras. Wilson, p. 183. Wilson, p. 184. "U.S., EU Condemn Tymoshenko Trial." Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. N.p., 26 June 2011. Web. 2 Dec. 2012. . European Union at the United Nations. By Viktor Yushchenko. European Union, 23 Feb. 2005. Web. 2 Dec. 2012. . Ukraine. European Union. European External Action Service (EEAS). N.p., n.d. Web. 2 Dec. 2012. .

Ukraine. European Union. Ukraine. European Union. "EU Accession a Priority for Ukraine: Yanukovych." EUbusiness. N.p., 2 Apr. 2012. Web. 03 Dec. 2012. .

"EU Accession a Priority for Ukraine: Yanukovych." Wilson, p. 191-2. Ukraine. International Military Staff (IMS). NATO’s Relations with Ukraine. North Atlantic Treaty Organization, n.d. Web. 3 Dec. 2012. .

"Cabinet Approves Action Plan for Annual National Program of Cooperation with NATO in 2010." KyivPost. N.p., 24 June 2010. Web. 03 Dec. 2012. .

"Constitution of Ukraine." World Intellectual Property Organization. United Nations, 2010. Web. 04 Dec. 2012. .

"Constitution of Ukraine." "Constitution of Ukraine." Skocpol, Theda. States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge: Cambridge UP, 1979. Print. Wilson, p. 198. Wilson, p. 199. Wilson, p. 199-200. Wilson, p. 201. Wilson, p. 202-3. Wilson, p. 205. "Ukraine Election: Opposition Rally against 'rigged' Poll." BBC News. BBC, 5 Nov. 2012. Web. 04 Dec. 2012. .

Marson, James, and Katya Gorchinskaya. "Ukraine Government Steps Down." The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Company, 3 Dec. 2012. Web. 4 Dec. 2012. . Marson, James, and Katya Gorchinskaya.

Marson, James, and Katya Gorchinskaya. "D.C. Villanueva: Review of Wilson, *Ukraine's Orange Revolution*." D.C. Villanueva: Review of Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution*. N.p., n.d. Web. 07 Nov. 2012. .