Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election


 * The following discussion is an archived debate of the proposed deletion of the article below. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page (such as the article's talk page or in a deletion review).  No further edits should be made to this page.

The result was no consensus. There isn't consensus that this is in fact crystalballing; several people argue that sources indicate that this is likely to happen soon and are covering it already.  Sandstein  09:54, 19 September 2017 (UTC)

Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election

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The existence of this article violates WP:CRYSTAL. That page specifies that future events should only have articles 'if the event is notable and almost certain to take place'. While it is certain that the UK Conservative party will have another leadership election at some point, there's no fixed schedule for doing so, and currently there is no vacancy. Theresa May has declared that she intends to remain as leader until the next general election, meaning the next leadership election may not be until 2022 or later. While there has been plenty of media speculation about if and when she might resign or be replaced as leader, it seems to me that there's no need for an article on the next leadership election until it is actually called. (Or, by fairness, we ought to have Next Labour Party (UK) leadership election as well; that's currently a redirect, but it was previously deleted at AFD on the grounds of being pure speculation, just like this is.) Robofish (talk) 22:49, 9 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Note: This debate has been included in the list of United Kingdom-related deletion discussions. CAPTAIN RAJU (T) 23:07, 9 September 2017 (UTC)


 * Delete Per WP:CRYSTAL. I think the nomination sums it up pretty well. I have to say I came across this page a little while ago and was tempted to nominate it for deletion myself as the entire article is just speculation -- Crasstun ( talk  |   contributions ) 00:25, 10 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Delete Both per WP:CRYSTAL, and because the article as titled would become obsolete whenever the next Conservative Party leadership election actually took place (since it would no longer be the "next" election, but the just past one). PohranicniStraze (talk) 02:36, 10 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Keep WP:CRYSTAL as I understand it doesn't prohibit this article. This is a notable event that is 'almost certain to happen'. As WP:CRYSTAL explicitly says, 'dates are not definite until the event actually takes place', so I don't follow why a lack of a set timeline means that this article shouldn't exist. PohranicniStraze's argument that the article should be deleted as if it stays it will need its name changed doesn't make sense to me: what about Next United Kingdom general election? What about other election articles without fixed terms? To quote WP:CRYSTAL again: 'if preparation for the event is not already in progress, speculation about it must be well documented'. There is no need for original research because as with the next US Presidential and the next UK general elections, there is a lot of speculation to document and draw upon from reliable sources: the well-documented speculation WP:CRYSTAL requires. Robofish says the same in their nomination at the top. I can't see how deletion is a view based on policy. Ralbegen (talk) 07:56, 10 September 2017 (UTC)
 * I recognise that we do have other articles about future elections. I would say the difference is that by law, there has to be another general election within 5 years; that is definitely going to happen. But there doesn't have to be another Conservative party leadership election any time soon. I recognise there has been a lot of media commentary about this, but it could always be merged somewhere else, like Premiership of Theresa May and Second May ministry. By the way, I noted that Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2007 was created as far back as April 2006, long before there was any official announcement that Tony Blair would resign, so by that comparison maybe this one's OK. But I'd like to see what other users think. Robofish (talk) 15:30, 10 September 2017 (UTC)
 * WP:CRYSTAL uses the phrase 'almost certain to happen', which I think this election is. The only circumstances under which there will be no Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election is if May's leadership lasts until the end of the party. There's no reasonable doubt that it is going to happen, and it has received significant coverage, so I think it should stay — and I definitely don't think that it violates WP:CRYSTAL, as both your nomination and all three delete !votes have relied on. Ralbegen (talk) 20:35, 15 September 2017 (UTC)


 * Delete - Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. When the next Conservative leadership has been help, this will have to be renamed "Last Conservative Leadership Election". Vorbee (talk) 08:02, 10 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Keep We follow reliable sources: that's the basic principle here. We are drowning in reliable sources discussing the next Conservative Party leadership election. That it hasn't been formally called is beside the point. There are events unfolding now and over the last few months that are part of the process and everyone knows it (and is describing it in reliable source publications). The article is not speculation because it is describing manoeuvering and activity happening now. Bondegezou (talk) 14:53, 10 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Keep they had a Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election for the 2016 leadership election. so its quite fitting for they as well have one for this next election. Torygreen84 (talk) 05:44, 11 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Keep - I can see several notable events, the topic is 'quite certain to happen' with reliable references, it would cover the issue of WP:CRYSTAL D8jang (talk) 10:51, 13 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Keep. It's trivially easy to do a Google search and find multiple in-depth sources discussing the next Conservative leadership election. Patar knight - chat/contributions 01:15, 17 September 2017 (UTC)
 * Keep. WP:CRYSTAL only applies to future events where there aren't enough sources to confirm that the event WILL happen by normal means OR if the event is too fat out into the future. And as far as I can tell, this article passes both criteria. ToThAc (talk) 15:26, 18 September 2017 (UTC)


 * The above discussion is preserved as an archive of the debate. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page (such as the article's talk page or in a deletion review). No further edits should be made to this page.