Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Miscellaneous/2022 August 19

= August 19 =

Climate change temperatures - 2022
Does climate change/global warming mean more/high warm and less/low cold temperatures? See [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-d6338d9f-8789-4bc2-b6d7-3691c0e7d138#:~:text=In%20some%20northern%20locations%2C%20the,average%20summer%20temperatures%20above%2025C. What will climate change look like near me?] 86.140.120.168 (talk) 21:53, 19 August 2022 (UTC)
 * While warming temperatures are a major effect of climate change, they are not the only one, which is why the term "climate change" is prefered to the earlier "gobal warming". Other effects include more frequent and more violent extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons, tornadoes, floods, etc.) and there's also the hypothesis that certain places may experience colder weather if climate change leads to changes in oceanic currents. See for example, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Xuxl (talk) 15:25, 20 August 2022 (UTC)
 * What does it mean when it's low temperatures in my area during winter?
 * Summer: Current (1991-2019) - 28.6C. 2C global warming - 31C. 4C global warming - 33.6C.
 * Winter: Current (1991-2019) - 14.7C. 2C global warming - 15.6C. 4C global warming - 16.7C. 86.140.120.168 (talk) 18:12, 21 August 2022 (UTC)
 * It is not very clear what you are inquiring about. Truth condition may help you understand what kind of uncertainties that unprecision is leading to. And you can skip the Nebraska condition without any problem! -- Askedonty (talk) 19:40, 21 August 2022 (UTC)
 * I'm inquiring about if the winter will still be cold, despite climate change. 86.140.120.168 (talk) 21:15, 21 August 2022 (UTC)
 * One likely reason is that the difference between arctic and more-southerly latitude temperatures helps to maintain a "barrier" of jet-stream winds that mostly block colder arctic air from "spilling" southwards. Climate change is (measurably) raising, and will continue to raise, arctic temperatures more than those further south, lessening that temperature difference and weakening the "barrier", so the still quite cold arctic air can spill southwards more easily and more often. Of course, that's a partial and simplified explanation, see Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the United States.
 * Atmospheric and oceanic geophysics, weather and climate (which is weather averaged over decades) are very complicated, so the effects of changing something that affects them (atmospheric CO2 concentration) are also complicated, difficult to calculate (although we're getting there), and are certainly not uniform over the globe. {The poster formerly known as 87.81.230.195} 90.209.121.96 (talk) 22:09, 21 August 2022 (UTC)
 * OP's IP geolocates to Northern Ireland, which has a very maritime climate. In my opinion (I'm also in a Cfb climate, but significantly farther from the ocean and bit to the south), it never gets hot or cold in Northern Ireland, but the locals may disagree. It will get warmer (and is already getting warmer).
 * Cold winter weather in Western Europe usually starts with cold temperatures in Scandinavia. Cold air is dense, so that causes the formation of a high-pressure area over Scandinavia, which in turn causes cold, easterly winds from Russia over Poland and Germany to Western Europe. As Scandinavia is rapidly getting warmer in winter, this high-pressure area gets weaker and easterly winds get less and less common, so that the coldest days of the year warm much faster than the average day. Note that these cold outbreaks rarely reached Great Brittain, let alone Ireland, even before climate change. The hottest days of the year in Western Europe also warm up faster than the average day, as southeasterly winds get more common in summer. PiusImpavidus (talk) 08:27, 22 August 2022 (UTC)
 * What about in Ireland, Britain and America? 86.130.4.135 (talk) 18:42, 23 August 2022 (UTC)
 * Ireland and Britain have a temperate, maritime climate. They will keep a temperate, maritime climate, but it will get a bit warmer. The wind and precipitation patterns may change too. My guess... In summer, low pressure zones over Spain and France are more likely to bring hot, dry air from eastern France towards the British Isles. That wind will pick up some moisture and cool a bit over the North Sea, but not much. So hot, dry periods in summer get more likely. In winter, high pressure zones over Scandinavia, that divert depressions approaching from the ocean towards the south, weaken. The result may be a bit more rain and westerly winds, including storms, and less cold. Pretty much what can be expected for all of Western Europe. Your national weather office may know more details.
 * America is such a big place that I can't give a specific answer here, other than that in general it will get warmer. And I haven't been paying a lot of attention to American weather over the past decades. PiusImpavidus (talk) 09:00, 24 August 2022 (UTC)

So due to climate change, the weather will always be warm, even in winter? 86.130.4.135 (talk) 20:12, 24 August 2022 (UTC)
 * No, that is far too simplistic even for one (unspecified) location, let alone various places on the globe or the whole world. In Temperate zones, the most common (but by no means universal) outcome will be (as far as I understand these matters) that summers will (often) be hotter for spells, but winters will probably be colder (for spells) and that storms may be more frequent and the magnitude of the most powerful storms will almost certainly be greater. In the special case of North-west Europe, there is a possibility that melting ice from Greenland will disrupt the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (which Xuxl referenced in the very first reply to you, and indeed made my other points above in slightly different language), which could result in North-west European winters becoming considerably colder.
 * Think of a pan of water simmering gently on a stove and the slight undulations on its surface representing changes in air temperature and pressure (hence winds etc.), and sea temperature: their highest highs and lowest lows are not very far apart. Now turn up the stove heat slightly: the simmering becomes more energetic and the surface undulations become more pronounced and irregular, with higher peaks, lower troughs and less predictability. If the stove heat continues to increase (and we know that global temperatures will inevitably continue to increase in future due to the extra CO2 we have already put into the atmosphere), the water in the pan may even start to bubble: in weather/climate terms this is analogous to parts of the world becoming uninhabitable for humans for at least part of the year without permanent air conditioning being available to everyone in the region for most of every 24 hours – in a power cut (for example), most of them would die. Being old (I was editing school science textbooks covering this topic more than 30 years ago), I will probably not live to see this; if I had children, they might, and my (nonexistent) grandchildren very likely will. {The poster formerly known as 87.81.230.195} 90.208.90.29 (talk) 23:00, 24 August 2022 (UTC)
 * This weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is causing slightly lower temperatures in the ocean south of Greenland and could affect weather in places like Iceland, Scotland and Norway. Farther south (Southern England, Netherlands, Northern France), winters just get warmer, mostly because the coldest days get much warmer and cold waves get rarer. So this winters getting colder in north-western Europe is really limited to the extreme north-west.
 * Will it still get cold or will it always be warm? That depends on what you call cold and warm. If cold means a temperature below freezing, coastal places in western Europe may hardly ever get cold again. At my place, 100 km inland in the Netherlands, such nights have dropped from 50 per year to 25 per year in the past 25 years. Only in spring they have remained constant, at on average 8, which is a problem for orchard owners, as the growth season starts earlier, but the last frost remains the same date, so frost during the growth season gets more likely. PiusImpavidus (talk) 09:19, 26 August 2022 (UTC)