Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Miscellaneous/2022 August 27

= August 27 =

Why couldn't the Roman Polanski sexual abuse case be pursued in France?
Does anyone know why Roman Polanski was not prosecuted in France? I understand that he cannot be extradited, under French law, but wouldn't the principle of aut dedere aut judicare oblige France to prosecute him instead? Moreover, the French penal code applies to felonies committed by French citizens even if the crime was committed outside France (and also to misdemeanors if the crime is also against the law in the country where the crime was committed). I assume the crime Polanski committed is also against the law in France.

One argument I have heard is that Polanski has already "served his sentence", but I don't think that's correct either. His 42 day confinement was a pre-sentence psychiatric evaluation, not his actual sentence. 49.185.165.83 (talk) 04:45, 27 August 2022 (UTC)


 * Article 3.2 of the extradition treaty between the US and France states: If extradition is refused solely on the basis of the nationality of the person sought, the Requested State shall, at the request of the Requesting State, to submit the case to its authorities for prosecution. I did not find concrete evidence that the US requested such submittal from France, but assuming they did and that France complied with its obligation, the decision not to prosecute was (formally) taken by the French ministère public, not by the French government. Since the severity of the offence had been consistently downplaid in France by the government and the media alike, a decision to prosecute would not have found public support. There are several straws they may have grasped. As you can read in the article, there is a dispute whether Polanski's term of imprisonment in Chino constituted the totality of the sentence; see also the statement issued by judge Rittenband in . There was also some evidence presented of misconduct by Rittenband in the original trial, which was used as an argument by the Swiss authorities not to extradite Polanski after his Zurich arrest. --Lambiam 08:43, 27 August 2022 (UTC)
 * One of the things to keep in mind is that the case became something of a cause celebre in both directions; early on many celebrities came to Polanski's defense with the claim that he was being railroaded, and French and Swiss authorities may have been sympathetic to that argument. Sentiment changed slowly, and widespread condemnation of Polanski after the  movement gained traction (though there were always a significant number of people who thought that he should have been held accountable).  Given the sort of taint the entire case has, it is not surprising that European authorities chose not to pursue the case nor extradite Polanski even though they could have.  Things are often messier in life than they should be on paper.  -- Jayron 32 17:16, 29 August 2022 (UTC)

Climate change temperatures in Ireland, the UK and the US - 2022
What are the temperatures in Ireland, Britain and America like due to climate change, in summer and winter? 86.130.4.135 (talk) 21:32, 27 August 2022 (UTC)


 * The Met Office has some data on this: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp
 * These prediction have large uncertainties, in particular as we can't say how quickly we'll manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Politicians promised in 2016 to cut emissions fast enough to limit worldwide temperature rise to 2°C (1.5°C if possible), but it doesn't look like they'll succeed. That's just the worldwide average; at high latitudes it will typically be more, in the tropics less. PiusImpavidus (talk) 10:06, 28 August 2022 (UTC)
 * High or low temperatures? Warm/hot summers and cool/cold winters? 86.130.4.135 (talk) 16:09, 28 August 2022 (UTC)
 * According to a summary published by the Met Office (a few clicks from the site I linked above), both winters and summers in the UK will get warmer, but the temperature rise in summer will be twice that in winter. Something like +0.5°C to +3°C in winter and +1.5°C to +5°C in summer 50 years from now, so the uncertainty is large. That's the temperature change, so add this to the temperature you're used to. Heat waves will get more common in summer. At the same time, winters will get wetter (up to 40%), leading to risk of flooding, and summers will get drier (up to 45%), leading to risk of fire and failed harvest, but there will also be an increased probability of extreme downpours, leading to risk of flooding and failed harvest. Although I think heat waves can be very uncomfortable, the changes in rainfall are even more worrying.
 * BTW, you sound like this is all new to you. It has been all over the news for a few decades and I suppose schools would tell about it too. Or don't they in Northern Ireland (if that is where you are)? PiusImpavidus (talk) 09:29, 29 August 2022 (UTC)
 * Yes, NI is where I am. And so there will be hot summers and warm winters? 86.130.4.135 (talk) 22:19, 29 August 2022 (UTC)
 * Not all winters will be warm, so don't dump your stove yet. They will be warmer on average. There will also be more very hot summers. And an increased influx of climate refugees. --Lambiam 07:56, 30 August 2022 (UTC)
 * A scientist I saw on TV explained it like this; if the average height of the population increases, you will still see very short people as well as very tall ones. So if the average temperature for a region increases, you will still have very cold spells as well as very hot ones. Alansplodge (talk) 11:30, 30 August 2022 (UTC)
 * Keep in mind that there is a difference between weather and climate - and also a difference between averages and actuals. Having the average temperature of an area rise by 5°C may not seem like a lot, but that's just the average - some summers it may be pretty much like it is today while in other years it may be much higher, to the point where it's classified as extreme weather (and see also Effects of climate change). Weather is always chaotic, but dumping more energy into the system makes extremes more likely - and more chaotic. Matt Deres (talk) 14:28, 30 August 2022 (UTC)

Will the climate in those 3 countries be like that for now on? I like warm weather (at least not very hot). 86.130.4.135 (talk) 22:26, 30 August 2022 (UTC)
 * No one can say what the climate anywhere will be "from now on". ←Baseball Bugs What's up, Doc? carrots→ 11:59, 31 August 2022 (UTC)


 * IPCC Sixth Assessment Report was their first to have regional fact sheets - UK and Ireland are together on https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Europe.pdf From that it looks like temperature rise will be a bit more than global heating (but they are not very sure - Met Office info above is probably more up to date) and you will almost certainly get more floods from heavy rain in winter. USA is on https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_North_and_Central_America.pdf WikiProject Climate change is fairly active if you would like to get involved or need more info. Chidgk1 (talk) 18:29, 31 August 2022 (UTC)
 * There will warm winters in all those countries? 86.130.4.135 (talk) 22:18, 2 September 2022 (UTC)