Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Science/2020 March 30

= March 30 =

Indigenous Australians and COVID-19
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/scott-morrison-coronavirus-covid19-two-person-rule-explained/12101212

Two days ago, Australian PM Scott Morrison announced new restrictions on gatherings (in particular, no more than two people together unless they're part of the same household), and urged certain vulnerable populations to be particularly careful about going out. People aged 70+, to be expected. People aged 60+ with a chronic illness, expected. Indigenous people over the age of 50. Why? What makes them more vulnerable than other people over the age of 50? Has some sort of genetic vulnerability been observed?

Nyttend (talk) 11:39, 30 March 2020 (UTC)


 * "Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, who have higher rates of chronic illness" Groups at higher risk of developing COVID-19 - Australian Government Department of Health. Alansplodge (talk) 11:53, 30 March 2020 (UTC)
 * "Chronic conditions like respiratory diseases (including asthma), heart and circulatory diseases, high blood pressure, diabetes, kidney diseases and some cancers are more common among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people than among non-Indigenous people in WA. These conditions tend to occur at younger ages for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people than non-Indigenous people". Chronic Diseases - Australian Indigenous HealthInfoNet Alansplodge (talk) 11:57, 30 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Diabetes and renal failure are more prevalent; much higher smoking rates; limited if any medical care facilities; remote locations. Bazza (talk) 12:00, 30 March 2020 (UTC)
 * More information at Indigenous coronavirus taskforce meets as remote communities restrict access. Alansplodge (talk) 12:07, 30 March 2020 (UTC)


 * Remote communities have a chance of staying virus free for longer with travel restrictions and other precautionary measures. Aboriginal people are more likely than non-Aboriginal people to live in remote communities. Also, the cost of managing severe health problems in remote communities is significantly more per person than in urban areas, and the availability of health services and the government's capacity to deal with serious cases in remote areas is significantly lower. Also, Aboriginal health on average is far worse than that of non-Aboriginal people. Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal health statistics are presented in the Closing the Gap report - https://ctgreport.niaa.gov.au/ MathewMunro (talk) 12:59, 30 March 2020 (UTC)

Wuhan's seasonal rate of all-cause mortality
I've spent a long time trying to find the usual average monthly death rate (due to all causes) in Wuhan. I am looking for the all-cause mortality rate per month/quarter (etc). Does anyone know where I can find this data? Please note: I am not searching for the COVID-19 mortality data. If someone could point me to this data I would be forever indebted. Thank you, Vitreology  talk  22:34, 30 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Wuhan COVID-19 Death Toll May Be in Tens of Thousands, Data on Cremations and Shipments of Urns Suggest (2020-03-29; Christina Zhao; Newsweek) quotes some numbers they got from the Chinese language Wuhan government 2019Q4 Wuhan Civil Affairs Statistics page, which includes links to the 2018Q1 -- 2019Q3 pages. Drop that link into a translator and see if those pages give you what you want. "Number of cremated remains" (near the bottom) is presumably equivalent to deaths. -- ToE 04:58, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * List_of_countries_by_cremation_rate says the cremation rate is about 50% for China, so number of cremation ≠ number of deaths. (I have no idea whether said rate is higher or lower in Wuhan than in the rest of the country.) Tigraan Click here to contact me 09:02, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * It could be that China has decided to cremate all the deceased just in case. Or that this is an "I drunk 50 bottles of beer" exaggeration that passed too many people in a Chinese whispers game before landing in a tabloid of note. 89.172.106.70 (talk) 10:09, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Thanks Tigraan. So that is just a list for civil services rendered.  Presumably there are birth/death statistics out there somewhere. -- ToE 12:03, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * , Thank you both for all your input so far.
 * I'm speaking with a chap living in Wuhan at the moment and it appears that the gov is forcing all bodies to be cremated, with significant fines being issued for non compliance with this.
 * Sale of urns could be a reasonable proxy for mortality rate.
 * Family either bury the earn in a cemetery where there's a tombstone positioned in the ground above the urn. Alternatively, the urn is placed in a cabinet, either within the cemetery or in the temple. Apparently, the cost of the urn burial sites / cabinets has become extremely expensive, so many are resorting to simply burning the urn (I assume the urn is made from wood). Irrespective of what happens to the urn, everyone gets a tombstone unless they are homeless or have no family/friends. Changes in the appearance of cemeteries (via satellite imagery: Historical images in Google Earth etc) could be used as a proxy for mortality rate.
 * Birth/death rate in specific Chinese provinces is very difficult to find.
 * Apparently there are two festivals (Qingming and Zhongyuan) where families mourn the dead, and burn "ghostcash". The dates of the festivals are determined by the Chinese traditional lunar calendar, but I believe Qingming is 4th of April this year. It will be very interesting to see what happens here - whether gatherings are permitted. Perhaps the world will gain a more accurate insight into the amount of people who have died in the past 6-12 months, based on the attendance numbers at this festival. There doesn't appear to be any sort of online registration system for these festivals which could be used as a proxy for mortality rate.
 * That's my research into this so far. I'd be grateful for any info anyone can provide to get closer to working out what the mortality rate in Wuhan is. PS: part of the reason I'm seeking this info is to work out if (or to what extent) the rates of death from non-infectious causes (heart attacks etc) rise during a pandemic like this. Kind regards, Vitreology   talk  12:41, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * In case there's some confusion, Qingming Festival is not simply a time to honour those who have recently died. It's for all ancestors. Likewise ghost money/joss paper and such ghost items and offerings are generally burnt at the funeral, during Qing Ming, and also other times. At least that's how it among Chinese Malaysians, but from our articles and other sources I don't think it's that different in China. Also although it may be called a "festival", I don't think it makes much sense to talk about 'attendance', let alone online registration. It's possible there may be some minor public events, but the primary ones are private particularly visiting ancestors tombs, cleaning them, making offering and praying. (By private I mean involving the family, obviously if lots of families are visiting cemeteries, there's likely to be quite a lot of people in the same area but each family is mostly doing their own thing.) [//www.mtrip.com/qingming-festival-shanghai/] [//www.thestar.com.my/metro/metro-news/2020/03/24/qing-ming-on-hold] It's possible that people may be stronger in their observances if someone has recently died, but I'm not so sure.  Of course the current situation especially in Wuhan is a bit unusual since the lock down is only now being lifted so it's likely people have not been able to properly perform Chinese funeral rituals, still, I'm unconvinced they're going to combine them with what they do on Qingming. Frankly if you wanted a proxy, I wonder if counting how many people are wearing red over the next few weeks might be your best bet but even then, probably not.  BTW, as an aside, the article on funeral rituals suggestions cremation tends to be higher in the cities. So even if the government wasn't dealing with the various current problems in the obvious way by requiring cremation, the 45% may not apply to Wuhan anyway. Nil Einne (talk) 14:33, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Very helpful insights, thank you.
 * Would you happen to know where I can find the overall mortality rate in Wuhan, per year? Vitreology   talk  14:44, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * I saw that report about Wuhan and something similar about Italy. I don't know what to make of it. 2601:648:8202:96B0:E0CB:579B:1F5:84ED (talk) 06:44, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Probably nothing much. There's a huge amount of fake news circulating about Italy. At some point we'll know but it's far, far too early to tell, especially in the current political trolling climate. 89.172.106.70 (talk) 10:09, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * That's based on statistical analysis of reported deaths vs. ordinary population death rate. The thing is, if the healthcare system is overwhelmed, some people will die otherwise possibly preventable deaths. If you have a heart attack but the nearest hospital is overflowing with COVID-19 patients and can't treat you, you might die when with treatment you wouldn't. But the question is, do you count that as part of the "COVID-19 death toll"? --47.146.63.87 (talk) 18:57, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Spot on. You have perfectly summarised the reason I'm asking this question.
 * Vitreology  talk  00:33, 1 April 2020 (UTC)
 * Would you happen to know where I can find the overall mortality rate in Wuhan, per year? Vitreology   talk  14:44, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * I saw that report about Wuhan and something similar about Italy. I don't know what to make of it. 2601:648:8202:96B0:E0CB:579B:1F5:84ED (talk) 06:44, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Probably nothing much. There's a huge amount of fake news circulating about Italy. At some point we'll know but it's far, far too early to tell, especially in the current political trolling climate. 89.172.106.70 (talk) 10:09, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * That's based on statistical analysis of reported deaths vs. ordinary population death rate. The thing is, if the healthcare system is overwhelmed, some people will die otherwise possibly preventable deaths. If you have a heart attack but the nearest hospital is overflowing with COVID-19 patients and can't treat you, you might die when with treatment you wouldn't. But the question is, do you count that as part of the "COVID-19 death toll"? --47.146.63.87 (talk) 18:57, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Spot on. You have perfectly summarised the reason I'm asking this question.
 * Vitreology  talk  00:33, 1 April 2020 (UTC)