Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Science/2024 April 10

= April 10 =

Economic independence of future space colonies
Assuming that at some point during future space colonization Earth will eventually become uninhabitable for some reason, have there been estimates in what time colonies on Moon, Mars, etc. may become fully independent of Earth supplies and deliveries? Brandmeistertalk  21:37, 10 April 2024 (UTC)
 * The best research on this can be found in the Mars trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson. Abductive  (reasoning) 22:55, 10 April 2024 (UTC)
 * Let's be careful calling works of fiction "research." Certainly, authors can conduct research while writing their fiction, but there is zero guarantee that they have done so, that they have done rigorous research if it was attempted, nor are they beholden to the results of said research. --OuroborosCobra (talk) 13:51, 11 April 2024 (UTC)
 * Do you seriously think I wasn't sure that Kim Stanely Robinson did a ton of research for his books? Robinson is known for that. Abductive  (reasoning) 17:14, 11 April 2024 (UTC)
 * *sigh* Please be careful to not make this personal. I'm commenting on fiction authors, not you or even Robinson specifically. However, that is why I included the clauses "that they have done rigorous research if it was attempted" and "nor are they beholden to the results of said research." In the case of the former, rigorous research usually requires an academic or other functional background relevant to the field. While Robinson has a PhD in English, well deserving of respect, that's not necessarily a background needed for rigorous research (including interpreting/analyzing what they have found) in fields like economics, space travel, aerospace engineering, physics, atmospheric science, terraforming, etc. Nor, as in the latter clause, is an author of fiction, are they beholden to the results of said research should they decide that the narrative needs of their story require some deviation, otherwise known as artistic license. --OuroborosCobra (talk) 19:03, 11 April 2024 (UTC)
 * Robinson assumed vast amounts of subsurface ice, for which (afaik) there is not good evidence. Also he was caught in an engineering blunder (the windmills, whose secret purpose he retconned in the next volume). —Tamfang (talk) 19:39, 11 April 2024 (UTC)
 * ...and still it was the best research on the subject. Abductive  (reasoning) 08:13, 12 April 2024 (UTC)
 * What are you basing that belief upon? —OuroborosCobra (talk) 12:00, 12 April 2024 (UTC)
 * I doubt that it has been rigourously established that full independence is reachable with currently available technology, not requiring completely untested ideas or hoped-for future inventions. --Lambiam 14:48, 11 April 2024 (UTC)
 * Note that for the scenario to make economic sense, Earth would have to become more uninhabitable than the Moon or Mars, which both are indeed completely uninhabitable with technology prospects in the medium term. The only way this makes sense to me offhand is if Earth becomes completely barren of all life and all water in any form and all convertible energy sources. SamuelRiv (talk) 18:01, 11 April 2024 (UTC)
 * Not necessarily. The society, polity, and / or economy of Earth need only to lose interest in extraterrestrial colonies, which might be because there are more pressing matters to attend to, or more profitable ones, or more technologically feasible ones. DOR (ex-HK) (talk) 20:00, 21 April 2024 (UTC)