Wikipedia:WikiProject New Zealand/politics/2018 Botany by-election

The 2018 Botany by-election is a possible New Zealand by-election to be held in the Botany electorate in 2018. The seat would have become vacant on 19 October 2018, the day when Jami-Lee Ross had indicated that he would resign from parliament, but on that date Ross announced that he would not resign but would remain an independent member of parliament instead. However, the National Party may still be able to force a by-election under the "waka-jumping" provision of the Electoral Act 1993.

Electorate profile
The Botany electorate is based in eastern Auckland, extending from Cockle Bay in the north, down through Botany Downs and East Tamaki, to Flat Bush in the south. Boundary changes in 2014 saw more of the Flat Bush area west of Chapel Road incorporated into the electorate. Its western border, south of Burswood, extends to the Tamaki River. According to the 2013 Census, a majority (50.2%) of the Botany electorate was born overseas, the highest proportion of any general electorate. Botany also has the highest proportions of people with Asian ethnicity (39.7%), those with a Buddhist religious affiliation (4.8%), and households with two cars (46.2%).

The winning candidate in the 2017 election, Jami-Lee Ross (National), captured a majority (62.9%) of the electorate votes in the Botany electorate. The National Party also captured a majority (61.0%) of the party votes in Botany, up 1.4 percentage points on its party vote share in 2014, while the Labour Party captured 29.3% of the party votes. No other party gained more than 5% of the party votes. Turnout (total votes cast as a proportion of enrolled electors) in 2017 was 72.6%.

Background
On 15 October 2018, National Party leader Simon Bridges stated that Ross had been identified as the National Party's internal leaker following a party inquiry into the leaking of Bridges' travel expenses. Bridges said the inquiry report identified Ross as the most likely source of the leak, and he accepted that finding. Ross denied the accusations and issued a series of Tweets alleging that Bridges had attempted to silence him for speaking out against his leadership decisions, which included accepting an election donation that allegedly broke the law. Bridges also indicated that National would seek disciplinary action against Ross. Ross, however, left the National Party on 16 October, and at a live press conference said he would resign as the MP for Botany on 19 October and contest the ensuing by-election as an independent candidate.

On 19 October, Ross announced that he would not resign from parliament but would instead stay on as an independent MP representing Botany.

The Electoral (Integrity) Amendment Act 2018 came into force on 4 October 2018. The Act is an amendment of the Electoral Act 1993 and is intended to prevent "waka-jumping", that is, MPs switching parties or becoming independents during a parliamentary term. The National Party therefore can use the provisions of the amendment to force Ross' seat to be vacated and the holding of a by-election.