Wikipedia talk:Five-million pool

When should this pool be closed??
Any opinions on when this pool should be closed?? I say it should be whenever Wikipedia reaches 2,000,000 articles. Anyone disagree?? Georgia guy 00:26, 1 Apr 2005 (UTC)
 * Either that, or on reaching 2,500,000 articles.   &mdash; J I P | Talk 05:09, 7 Apr 2005 (UTC)
 * Well, I added a while ago that this should close after article 2,500,000 (in line with other pools), so that is a good idea. (Yes, I know this discussion has been very dormant since April 2005, which was still long before I announced the closing time...)  -- WC  Quidditch   &#9742;   &#9998;  17:17, 26 February 2006 (UTC)
 * How about 3,000,000 articles? --Joe Schme(ssages)dley 21:42, 3 December 2006 (UTC)


 * Why so large?? The 1MP closed after Wikipedia reached 500K articles. Georgia guy 22:28, 3 December 2006 (UTC)

This pool will be closing very soon. Probably before the end of June. J I P | Talk 03:38, 25 June 2008 (UTC)

Clarification of the rules
Is it server time, UTC or something else we're betting on? Also, I think people should write what time of day they're voting on. :) /skagedal... 17:20, 5 December 2006 (UTC)
 * It is based on server time and if no time specified, noon is assumed.SYSS Mouse 01:48, 10 September 2007 (UTC)

Position of Never
The categories are in chronological order.. so shouldn't Never go last? After Eternity? :P Also its contents are pretty negative and probably discourage participation. --Zojj (t,c) 04:37, 10 January 2008 (UTC)

mathematically based solution
Based on Wikipedia's growth rate, I found several points comparing the year and month to the article count. I then used quadratic regression (on my TI-84, of course) to find the equation of the curve of best fit. Plugging 5 million in gives the date of May 25th, 2011. Any thoughts? Whaatt uSpeak  what iDone  22:29, 30 April 2009 (UTC)


 * Exponential curve gives June 4, 2013. Whaatt  uSpeak  what iDone  22:29, 30 April 2009 (UTC)


 * 2011-09-14, on the assumption that the number of articles doubles every 18 months, a la Moore's Law (exponential curve, starting from 1.72m articles on 2007-04-02). But it looks like I am (will be) wrong. — Loadmaster (talk) 17:33, 14 January 2011 (UTC)


 * Bets on Wikipedia:Five-million pool (2) are still open. Make sure you place your bets there before reaching 4M. HenkvD (talk) 13:29, 16 January 2011 (UTC)

Future pools
I propose a new schedule for future pools. It also effects this pool (5M), so see Wikipedia talk:Pools. HenkvD (talk) 18:04, 5 September 2009 (UTC)

Now that we hit five million, I propose reopening the pool for when we go back down to that number. All votes for dates after 1 Nov 2015 will still stand! The deletionists are coming, the deletionists are coming! Etamni &#124; &#9993; &#124; ✓ 23:31, 5 November 2015 (UTC)

Prediction
Wikipedia is now at halfway between four million and five million. It has taken it a year and nine months to gain half a million articles, therefore I predict it will take it another year and nine months to gain another half a million articles. It will reach five million in January 2016, and either User:Mark E or User:Mac Davis will win. J I P &#124; Talk 05:25, 25 April 2014 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at halfway between four and a half million and five million. It has taken it eleven months to gain a quarter of a million articles, therefore I predict it will take it another eleven months to gain another quarter of a million articles. It will reach five million in February 2016, and User:Mac Davis will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 10:51, 25 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at halfway between four and three quarters of a million and five million. It has taken it two months to gain an eighth of a million articles, therefore I predict it will take it another two months to gain another eighth of a million articles. It will reach five million in July 2015, and User:Sverdrup will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 18:45, 25 May 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at one hundred thousand away from five million. It has taken it one month to gain a quarter of a hundred thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take it another four months to gain another hundred thousand articles. It will reach five million in October 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 11:09, 24 June 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at three quarters of a hundred thousand away from five million. It has taken it one month to gain a quarter of a hundred thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another three months to gain another three quarters of a hundred thousand articles. It will reach five million in October 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 16:15, 23 July 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at half a hundred thousand away from five million. It has taken it one month to gain a quarter of a hundred thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another two months to gain another half a hundred thousand articles. It will reach five million in October 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 13:59, 22 August 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at one quarter of a hundred thousand away from five million. It has taken it about a month and a week to gain a quarter of a hundred thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another month and a week to gain another quarter of a hundred thousand articles. It will reach five million in November 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 16:11, 27 September 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at twenty thousand away from five million. It has taken it eight days to gain five thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another thirty-two days to gain another twenty thousand articles. It will reach five million in November 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 19:37, 5 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at fifteen thousand away from five million. It has taken it one week to gain five thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another three weeks to gain another fifteen thousand articles. It will reach five million in November 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 06:52, 12 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at ten thousand away from five million. It has taken it six days to gain five thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another twelve days to gain another ten thousand articles. It will reach five million in late October 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 20:07, 18 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at five thousand away from five million. It has taken it one week to gain five thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another week to gain another five thousand articles. It will reach five million in early November 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 17:22, 25 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at four thousand away from five million. It has taken it one day to gain one thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another four days to gain another four thousand articles. It will reach five million in late October 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 20:56, 26 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at three thousand away from five million. It has taken it two days to gain one thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another six days to gain another three thousand articles. It will reach five million in early November 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 10:59, 28 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at two thousand away from five million. It has taken it two days to gain one thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another four days to gain another two thousand articles. It will reach five million in early November 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 22:47, 29 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at one thousand away from five million. It has taken it two days to gain one thousand articles, therefore I predict it will take another two days to gain another thousand articles. It will reach five million in early November 2015, and User:Mark E will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 15:52, 31 October 2015 (UTC)

I have been following your predictions. Very interesting! Thanks! --User101010 (talk) 19:05, 25 October 2015 (UTC)

It was interesting to see the predictions bounce around, then go back and forth between Oct and Nov then finally land on Nov 1. Thanks again. --User101010 (talk) 13:49, 1 November 2015 (UTC)