Wikipedia talk:Four-million pool

Please close this pool. Georgia guy (talk) 20:56, 20 February 2010 (UTC)

Prediction
It appears to have taken Wikipedia eight months to gain 200 thousand articles. Therefore it will probably take a year to gain 300 thousand more articles and so it will reach four million in August 2012. J I P &#124; Talk 16:04, 9 August 2011 (UTC)
 * Utilizing the equation given here we can see that Wikipedia will reach 4 million articles 13.3801 years after January 1, 2000, or April 16, 2013 at 20:03:50:04:00 UTC. Brightgalrs ( /braɪtˈɡæl.ərˌɛs/ )[1] 15:13, 11 August 2011 (UTC)
 * So I do believe A More Perfect Onion will win, coming within 3 and a half months. Brightgalrs ( /braɪtˈɡæl.ərˌɛs/ )[1] 15:17, 11 August 2011 (UTC)

Wikipedia is now halfway between three and a half million and four million. It has taken it about nine months to gain 250 thousand articles. Therefore it will probably take another nine months to gain another 250 thousand articles, and so Wikipedia will reach four million in June 2012, and User:WereSpielChequers will win. J I P &#124; Talk 05:27, 26 September 2011 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now three-quarters of the way between three and a half million and four million. It has taken it about five months to gain 125 thousand articles. Therefore it will probably take another five months to gain another 125 thousand articles, and so Wikipedia will reach four million in July 2012, and User:WereSpielChequers will still win. J I P  &#124; Talk 05:53, 17 February 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at one hundred thousand articles away from four million. It has taken it 31 days to gain 25 thousand articles. Therefore it should take it 124 days to gain one hundred thousand articles, and it should reach four million on 21 July 2012. Therefore I still think User:WereSpielChequers will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 20:22, 19 March 2012 (UTC)
 * Interesting, that would imply that the growth rate has stabilised at 25k a month. I thought it was still slowly declining but with seasonal twists. But having got this close if we haven't already got there the Summer Olympics should do the trick.  Ϣere Spiel  Chequers  07:24, 11 April 2012 (UTC)
 * It would appear so. It is now 29 days since my last status update and Wikipedia is nearing 3.925 million now. J I P  &#124; Talk 04:05, 17 April 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at seventy-five thousand articles away from four million. It has taken it 30 days to gain 25 thousand articles. Therefore it should take it 90 days to gain seventy-five thousand articles, and it should reach four million on 17 July 2012. Therefore I still think that User:WereSpielChequers will win. J I P  &#124; Talk 15:34, 18 April 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at fifty thousand articles way from four million. It has taken it 27 days to gain 25 thousand articles. Therefore it should take it 54 days to gain fifty thousand artices, and it should reach four million on 8 July 2012. It is now quite obvious that User:WereSpielChequers will win. User:The Duke of Waltham still stands an infitesimal chance of winning, if the growth rate of Wikipedia were to suddenly multiply by a factor of eight. User:A More Perfect Onion and User:Rich jj also stand a slim chance of winning, but it would require the growth rate to slow dramatically down. All the other betters in this pool have long since lost any chance of winning. J I P  &#124; Talk 19:50, 15 May 2012 (UTC)
 * The current growth rate is about 922 articles per day. For User:A More Perfect Onion to win, it would have to slow down to 420 articles per day, or about 45% of the current rate. For User:Rich jj to win, it would have to slow down to 85 articles per day, or about 9% of the current rate. J I P  &#124; Talk 05:57, 16 May 2012 (UTC)
 * It is now closer to June 1 than to May 12, so User:The Duke of Waltham has no chance of winning this pool any more. J I P  &#124; Talk 18:33, 23 May 2012 (UTC)
 * Measured from 15 May, the current growth rate is about 1170 articles per day. For User:A More Perfect Onion to win, it would have to slow down to 358 articles per day, or about 31% of the current rate. For User:Rich jj to win, it would have to slow down to 73 articles per day, or about 6% of the current rate. J I P  &#124; Talk 05:30, 24 May 2012 (UTC)
 * For some mysterious reason, the article count on the English Wikipedia seems to have gone down by several thousands. This has slowed the current growth rate, measured from 15 May, to slow down to about 516 articles per day, and calculations based on that estimate that Wikipedia will reach 4 million articles on 19 August 2012. However, it would still mean that User:WereSpielChequers is going to win. J I P  &#124; Talk 05:12, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
 * No great mystery. There has been a batch deletion of nearly 8,000 articles in late May, this was to clear up a flawed batch creation of inhabited places in China. My original prediction of June 1st isn't going to happen, but the underlying rate remains close to a thousand a day. So unless further batch deletions happen we should reach 4 Million in July and 4.1 million well before the end of the year.  Ϣere Spiel  Chequers  10:04, 30 May 2012 (UTC)
 * The date of your guess has already passed, but if Wikipedia reaches 4 million articles before 12 September, your guess will still be the closest. The current growth rate, measured from 15 May, is now about 586 articles per day. With this growth rate, Wikipedia will reach 4 million articles on 8 August. J I P  &#124; Talk 09:01, 2 June 2012 (UTC)
 * If the deletion of 8,000 remains one of those one off blips, then the 586 figure is misleading and we will be able to celebrate 4 million in the second week of July.  Ϣere Spiel  Chequers  00:59, 9 June 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, the current growth rate counting from May 15 is now about 702 articles per day, and with this growth rate Wikipedia will reach 4 million articles on 25 July 2012. J I P  &#124; Talk 06:17, 9 June 2012 (UTC)
 * Or counting from April 18, the growth rate is now about 819 articles per day, and with this growth rate Wikipedia will reach 4 million articles on 18 July 2012. J I P  &#124; Talk 07:53, 9 June 2012 (UTC)
 * That's the thing about mass deletions, the underlying growth rate should be unaffected, despite the whole project getting smaller. if you know the size of the mass deletion and you take that off the size of the file slightly earlier you can calculate a more accurate underlying growth rate. !st June is obviously wrong, but our current growth is closer to a thousand articles a day.  Ϣere  Spiel  Chequers  10:45, 9 June 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at twenty-five thousand away from four million. It has taken it 33 days to gain 25,000 articles, so therefore it will probably take it another 33 days to gain another 25,000 articles, and it will reach four million articles on 20 July 2012. J I P  &#124; Talk 05:48, 17 June 2012 (UTC)
 * Measured since yesterday, the current growth rate is now about 878 articles per day, and with this growth rate, Wikipedia should reach four million articles on 15 July 2012. J I P  &#124; Talk 05:04, 18 June 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at twenty thousand articles away from four million. It has taken it 5 days to gain 5,000 articles, so therefore it will probably take it another 20 days to gain another 20,000 articles, and it will reach four million articles on 12 July 2012. J I P  &#124; Talk 12:47, 22 June 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at fifteen thousand articles away from four million. It has taken it 5 days to gain 5,000 articles, so therefore it will probably take it another 15 days to gain another 15,000 articles, and it will reach four million on 12 July 2012. J I P  &#124; Talk 20:40, 27 June 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at two thousand articles away from four million. It has taken it 16 days to gain 13,000 articles, so therefore it will probably take it another 2 days to gain another 2,000 articles, and it will reach four million on 15 July 2012. 03:56, 13 July 2012 (UTC)
 * Wikipedia is now at one thousand articles away from four million. It has taken it one day to gain 1,000 articles, so therefore it will probably take it another day to gain another 1,000 articles, and it will reach four million on 14 July 2012. J I P  &#124; Talk 12:50, 13 July 2012 (UTC)

Four million reached
Wikipedia reached four million articles today, on 13 July 2012. I have marked the winner (User:WereSpielChequers) and created an Eight-million pool. J I P &#124; Talk 14:31, 13 July 2012 (UTC)

4 millionth TOPIC pool
I cant find this pool. I dont think we did it. seems odd, we have topic pools for 5 and 10, im surprised no one cares about the other million marks. of course, it is a waste of time, unless someone can rig a way to mass create a series of legitimate articles just around the time of 4m. they do get created one at a time, dont they, rather than all precisely at once?.(mercurywoodrose)50.193.19.66 (talk) 16:54, 9 July 2012 (UTC)
 * Sometimes people will start whole batches of articles that are very similar and use the same sources. This often happens with villages, but it can happen with rivers or members of a sports team.  Ϣere Spiel  Chequers  18:17, 9 July 2012 (UTC)

4M image
The million and two-million pools each have images of the numbers that they represent. Please add one here. Georgia guy (talk) 17:10, 2 December 2012 (UTC)