Wikipedia talk:Two-million pool

When should this pool be closed??
Any opinions on when this pool should be closed?? I say whenever Wikipedia reaches 1,000,000 articles. Does anyone disagree?? Georgia guy 00:25, 1 Apr 2005 (UTC)
 * I agree to closing on the millionth article. But when will Five-million pool be closed? With the way we seem to be going, that would be on reaching 2,500,000 articles. Opinions?   &mdash; J I P | Talk 05:08, 7 Apr 2005 (UTC)

For the same ratio as the 666,666th pool, it would be 1800000 articles. I think at 1000000 is too early, and that it should be no earlier than at 1500000. Stoive 23:45, 26 May 2005 (UTC)

1000000 sounds right to me Rast 01:26, July 19, 2005 (UTC)


 * I agree that 1000000 is far too early. I'd go with the 1500000. --Borbrav 04:40, 16 January 2006 (UTC)

Failure of math, or failure of WP?
I'm surprised by the current pool. The WP statistics page says that "more than 100,000 pages are being added per month". Simple (non-exponential) math shows that WP should reach 2M articles in less than 12 months, yet most of the guesses are nowhere near that, and are much further out. Is the statistic of "100,000 per month" wrong, or is everybody really, really bad at math? Or is everyone expecting a catastrophic meltdown any day now? linas 22:50, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * The statistic includes redirects, disambiguation pages, substubs, user pages, talk pages, user subpages and pages in the Wikipedia namespace. --Mark J 15:14, 6 October 2005 (UTC)


 * Everyone is really really bad at math. This is the english wikipedia, which means there's a lot of americans.  And americans are really really bad at math, and they don't use it when it would be an appropriate tool for a problem.  They don't think about it.  I'm saying this as an American, as an exception among Americans in general. I estimated based on exponential growth, calculating my own parameters from the available data.  It's clear from that that the majority of guesses are way outside the margin of error, and therefore most people clearly didn't use any mathematical method.  Kevin Baastalk 18:47, 18 March 2006 (UTC)

Pool or Poll?
A thing which struck me while browsing the different "pools": Did we really mean pool - one place where different statements are gathered? Or was is actually supposed to be polls - meaning voting/survey but someone made a typo which stayed and propagated by copy/paste? Just a small thought... --Misza13 (Talk) 14:46, 8 February 2006 (UTC)
 * No, it's a pool because it is a betting game, not a voting system. Mushintalk 15:09, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

I know its unlikely to happen...
but what would happen if, because of people wanting to write the 2nd millonth article, that people create poor articles and the Two-millionath wikipedia article is created on 23:59 and then is deleted and somebody creates on 12:01 the next day, thus becoming the 2nd, two-millionath article. Which day do we pay out? -- HamedogTalk 12:10, 9 February 2006 (UTC)
 * There was precedent in the 666,666th pool. The 666,666th article was only a temporary article about the number 666,666 itself. It was deleted only minutes after being created, by its own author. J I P  | Talk 19:01, 24 February 2006 (UTC)

Closed, bah!
I know it's closed, but I want it publically recorded somewhere that I believe the 2,000,000 mark will be hit on September 29, 2007. - Mgm|(talk) 11:52, 2 March 2006 (UTC)

October 4, 2007- my guess--Coasttocoast 00:09, 4 September 2006 (UTC)

What about a pool for 1,010,101 pages?
It might even happen on April 1st, the way the pages are building up.

The number of registed members has gone past the number of pages, and hit a million on Tuesday. So it too could have its 'pool'.

--GwydionM 18:28, 2 March 2006 (UTC)
 * It's too close. Usually pools are closed at about 50%. --Army1987 19:24, 2 March 2006 (UTC)

Studying the pool
By studying this pool, it appears that most Wikipedians are expecting Wikipedia to reach 2 million articles in 2007. Any evidence on this?? Georgia guy 21:36, 10 March 2006 (UTC)
 * No, It's just a ballpark guess. There doesn't have to be an explaination!

2/3 there
Now that we're over 2/3 of the way to reaching this exciting number, I wonder what will happen. Anything similar to the time Wikipedia reached 1M articles?? Georgia guy 23:34, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Prediction
Assuming a constant growth rate, Wikipedia will hit two million articles on 1 September 2007. J I P | Talk 07:29, 2 March 2007 (UTC)


 * I reckon July 22, 2007. Berserkerz Crit 12:03, 23 May 2007 (UTC)
 * My current prediction seems to be on September 14. J I P  | Talk 06:05, 14 June 2007 (UTC)

My predictions have fluctuated between September 17 and September 19 for several weeks now, so I predict that either User:Guaca or Use:Lankiveil will win this pool. J I P | Talk 07:04, 17 July 2007 (UTC)

My entry
The date of my entry just passed. The error in the number of articles was only 2.04%. Looks like a fairly good guess, then. Currently the prediction seems to fluctuate between September 10 and September 11. J I P | Talk 19:04, 20 August 2007 (UTC)
 * My birthday is actually on September 11., so I suppose I should have guessed my birthday along with everyone else. 80.202.212.58 17:26, 28 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Yes, but my current prediction is September 7, so it looks like User:Jonnyboy8807 will win. J I P  | Talk 18:17, 28 August 2007 (UTC)
 * I assume the model is faulty the last week or so, as people are likely to create more articles than usual to reach the goal faster. September 7. seems like a good bet. 80.202.212.58 19:19, 4 September 2007 (UTC)
 * It is now September 7 and we're still over 5000 articles away. My current prediction is September 9, so I think User:OGoncho will win. J I P  | Talk 04:17, 7 September 2007 (UTC)

99% there
Today, on Wednesday 29 August, the English Wikipedia passed 1,980,000 articles. We're over 99% there towards two million! J I P | Talk 05:16, 29 August 2007 (UTC)

99.9% there
Today, on Sunday 9 September, the English Wikipedia passed 1,998,000 articles. We're over 99.9% there towards two million! J I P | Talk 04:42, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

99.99% there
Mere seconds ago, the English Wikipedia passed 1,999,800 articles. We're over 99.99% there towards two million! J I P | Talk 07:53, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

OMG
We're 100.1% of the way there! *Lights fireworks* --WikiSlasher 13:53, 10 September 2007 (UTC)

2,000,000 reached!
User:OGoncho won to the very day, well done! --WikiSlasher 13:55, 10 September 2007 (UTC)