Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election

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In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.

Electoral polling[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

A local regression graph of all polls conducted

Voting intention estimates[edit]

Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.

Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

2024[edit]

Polling firm Date Sample
size 		Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats SR ĽSNS Others Lead
OĽaNO KÚ ZĽ
Focus[1] 17–24 Apr 2024 1,017 21.1% 19.7% 18.0% 5.2% 6.9% 7.0% 5.3% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4
AKO[2] 9–16 Apr 2024 1,000 21.2% 20.1% 16.5% 5.2% 7.9% 6.5% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 1.3% 1.1
Focus[3] 28–4 Apr 2024 1,015 21.6% 20.1% 17.9% 6.4% 6.3% 5.4% 5.1% 4.6% 5.0% 3.7% 1.8% 1.9% – 1.5
Ipsos[4] 16–19 Mar 2024 1,009 21.6% 20.2% 16.3% 5.8% 6.2% 6.7% 4.1% 5.0% 4.6% 3.8% 3.0% – – 1.4
AKO[5] 11–18 Mar 2024 1,000 22.1% 21.0% 15.9% 5.6% 8.1% 6.7% 5.1% 3.9% 4.6% 3.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1
Ipsos[6] 12–16 Mar 2024 1,038 23.4% 20.8% 17.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.3% 4.2% 3.6% 2.6% 3.1% – – 2.6
Focus[7] 14–21 Feb 2024 1,025 21.1% 18.9% 17.2% 5.9% 6.1% 6.2% 5.8% 4.2% 5.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.7% 0.4% 2.2
Ipsos[8] 16–21 Feb 2024 1,028 22.7% 21.3% 16.5% 5.8% 6.7% 6.4% 4.2% 5.2% 3.4% 2.4% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 1.4
NMS[9] 14–18 Feb 2024 1,022 21.0% 22.0% 16.9% 6.0% 7.2% 5.7% 4.2% 5.8% 3.3% 2.5% 3.6% 1.6% 0.2% 1.0
AKO[10] 5–12 Feb 2024 1,000 24.0% 22.6% 14.5% 6.0% 8.2% 6.2% 5.3% 3.7% 4.6% 1.5% 2.8% 0.2% 0.4% 1.4
Ipsos[11] 22–25 Jan 2024 1,022 24.5% 20.6% 15.4% 5.3% 6.6% 6.6% 4.3% 5.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 3.9
Focus[12] 16–23 Jan 2024 1,015 21.6% 19.4% 17.9% 6.5% 6.2% 5.5% 5.7% 4.8% 4.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.7% 0.2% 2.2
AKO[13] 11–16 Jan 2024 1,048 22.1% 19.9% 14.3% 7.0% 8.7% 6.0% 5.4% 5.3% 4.3% 3.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.2
NMS[14] 10–14 Jan 2024 1,030 22.3% 21.1% 14.7% 6.0% 6.9% 6.9% 4.5% 6.5% 3.4% 3.1% 3.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.2
2023 elections 30 Sep 2023 2,967,896 22.95% 17.96% 14.70% 8.90% 6.82% 6.32% 5.63% 4.75% 4.39% 2.93% 2.21% 0.84% 1.60% 4.99

2023[edit]

Polling firm Date Sample
size 		Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats SR ĽSNS Others Lead
OĽaNO KÚ ZĽ
Ipsos[15] 13–18 Dec 2023 1,048 24.1% 19.4% 15.7% 5.9% 6.4% 7.1% 4.8% 5.2% 4.0% 3.6% 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 4.7
AKO[16] 11–13 Dec 2023 1,000 24.2% 21.4% 14.6% 6.8% 7.3% 6.4% 5.3% 5.4% 3.6% 2.0% 2.3% 0.2% – 2.8
Focus[17] 15–22 Nov 2023 1,015 23.8% 17.9% 14.6% 6.4% 7.5% 6.4% 5.8% 5.3% 5.0% 2.9% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 5.9
AKO[18] 7–14 Nov 2023 1,000 24.0% 20.1% 15.4% 6.6% 6.9% 5.9% 5.4% 4.9% 4.4% 2.3% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 3.9
Ipsos[19] 2–7 Nov 2023 1,021 24.0% 19.1% 15.1% 7.0% 5.8% 6.3% 5.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.1% 1.0% 4.9
2023 elections 30 Sep 2023 2,967,896 22.95% 17.96% 14.70% 8.90% 6.82% 6.32% 5.63% 4.75% 4.39% 2.93% 2.21% 0.84% 1.60% 4.99

Seat projections[edit]

Polling firm Date Sample
size 		Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Lead Gov. Opp.
Focus[20] 17–24 Apr 2024 1,017 38 36 33 0 12 12 9 10 0 2 80 70
AKO[21] 9–16 Apr 2024 1,000 41 39 32 0 15 13 10 0 0 2 83 67
Focus[22] 28–4 Apr 2024 1,015 40 37 33 0 10 12 9 0 9 3 82 68
AKO[23] 11–18 Mar 2024 1,000 42 40 30 0 15 13 10 0 0 2 82 68
Focus[24] 14–21 Feb 2024 1,025 39 35 32 0 11 12 11 0 10 4 82 68
AKO[25] 5–12 Feb 2024 1,000 45 42 27 0 15 11 10 0 0 5 82 68
Focus[26] 16–23 Jan 2024 1,015 43 38 35 0 12 11 11 0 0 5 89 61
AKO[27] 11–16 Jan 2024 1,048 37 34 24 12 15 10 9 9 0 5 70 80
AKO[28] 11–13 Dec 2023 1,000 43 38 26 0 13 11 9 10 0 5 78 72
Focus[29] 15–22 Nov 2023 1,015 42 31 25 0 13 11 10 9 9 8 77 73
AKO[30] 7–14 Nov 2023 1,000 47 39 30 0 13 11 10 0 0 8 87 63
2023 elections 30 Sep 2023 2,967,896 42 38 27 16 12 11 10 0 0 4 79 71

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  2. ^ "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  3. ^ "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  4. ^ "Smer mierne klesol, Dankova SNS je na štyroch percentách". Denník N (in Slovak). 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  5. ^ "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  6. ^ "Smer má 23 percent, protesty ním neotriasli. PS mierne zaostáva, darí sa aj Hlasu". Denník N (in Slovak). 18 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  7. ^ "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  8. ^ "PS sa doťahuje na Smer a zväčšuje si potenciál. Od volieb zosilnel aj Hlas". Denník N (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  9. ^ "PS predbehlo Smer, SNS je mimo". Sme (in Slovak). 22 February 2024. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  10. ^ "Smer si stále drží prvé miesto pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  11. ^ "Smer sa drží na 25 percentách, neklesá ani Hlas. Od volieb najviac stratil Matovič". Denník N (in Slovak). 29 January 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
  12. ^ "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
  13. ^ "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  14. ^ "Účasť v koalícii sa SNS nedarí zúročiť". Sme (in Slovak). 19 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  15. ^ "Smer zostáva najsilnejší". Denník N (in Slovak). 20 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  16. ^ "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  17. ^ "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  18. ^ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  19. ^ "Prvý povolebný model Ipsosu: Smer má 24 percent, PS 19. Matovičov nový názov ľudí mätie". Denník N (in Slovak). 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  20. ^ "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  21. ^ "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  22. ^ "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  23. ^ "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  24. ^ "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  25. ^ "Do parlamentu by sa podľa prieskumu dostalo šesť strán. Vyklikajte si možné koalície". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  26. ^ "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
  27. ^ "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  28. ^ "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  29. ^ "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  30. ^ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
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