Template:2026 NZ election forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[1]
| Source | Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[2] 5–7 May 2024 poll |
47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills[3] 30 Apr 2024 poll |
42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[4] 20–24 Apr 2024 poll |
48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan[5] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll |
45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 2023 election result[6] 14 Oct 2023 |
48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
References
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ Edwards, Bryce (1 May 2024). "Political Roundup: Discontent and gloom dominate NZ's political mood". NZ Herald.
- ^ Desmarais, Felix (29 April 2024). "Poll: Labour could return to power if election held today". 1 News.
- ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April". Roy Morgan. 30 April 2024.
- ^ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.