2023 Dutch general election

Early general elections were held in the Netherlands on 22 November 2023 to elect the members of the House of Representatives. The elections had been expected to be held in 2025 but a snap election was called after the fourth Rutte cabinet collapsed on 7 July 2023 due to immigration policy disagreements between the coalition parties. The incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that he would not lead his party into the election and that he would retire from politics.

In what was described as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II", the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, won 37 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, becoming the largest party for the first time. All four parties of the incumbent coalition government suffered losses.

After the election, a cabinet formation began to determine which parties would form the next government. Subsequently on 16 May 2024, a coalition agreement was settled upon by PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. Furthermore, immigration policy has been heavily prioritised on the incoming government's agenda, as coalition representatives stated they would embrace the "strictest" asylum policy. Numerous reforms are also expected across areas such as welfare and health, as emphasised upon by NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt during the election campaign, similar to addressing issues having surfaced in the aftermath of the Dutch childcare benefits scandal. Several observers have described the new government as the most right-wing in recent history.

Background
The 2021 Dutch general election resulted in the formation of the fourth Rutte cabinet, consisting of a coalition of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). Mark Rutte, leader of VVD, continued in his role as prime minister.

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. The 2023 Dutch provincial elections, which were won by the BBB, led to heavy losses for the ruling coalition. Since the provincial councils indirectly elect the Dutch Senate, it meant that the ruling coalition had to face more difficulty passing legislation.

The government resigned on 7 July 2023 after the four parties failed to agree on a proposed limitation of family reunification for refugees fleeing armed conflict. The coalition government led by Mark Rutte collapsed ahead of the anticipated November elections due to irreconcilable disagreements on migration issues. The dispute arose from Rutte's proposal to tighten restrictions on the reunification of asylum seekers' families, aiming to reduce the number of migrants following a previous scandal involving overcrowded migration centers. CDA supported Rutte's proposal, while the opposition of CU and D66 led to a breakdown in negotiations. The parties decided unanimously that they could not remain together in the coalition. The king asked that the prime minister and his government continue to carry out their duties in a caretaker capacity. This could have been seen as a move by Rutte to keep migration on the center stage as his party was disunited on his nitrogen policies.

Leadership changes
On 10 July 2023, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced he would not run again as lead candidate for the VVD, and leave politics when a new cabinet would be sworn in. Other party leaders and parliamentary leaders also announced they would not return, including Sigrid Kaag (D66), Wopke Hoekstra, Pieter Heerma (both CDA), Attje Kuiken (PvdA), Kees van der Staaij (SGP), Farid Azarkan (Denk), Liane den Haan (independent), Nilüfer Gündoğan (independent), and Sylvana Simons (BIJ1). Jesse Klaver announced that, although he wanted to continue as member of parliament, he would not be candidate for leader of the Labour Party–GroenLinks alliance. Additionally, Vera Bergkamp, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, did not stand for reelection.

Electoral system
Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%. Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.

NOS op 3 debates
In addition to the conventional debates, a series of debates between two or three party leaders were hosted by news program NOS op 3. The debates are broadcast through the programme's media outlets, such as radio and YouTube. The debates were broadcast in real-time and were held with a select group of young people present, who, in addition to the viewers on the YouTube live stream, asked the candidates various questions.


 * 30 October: Mirjam Bikker (CU) and Esther Ouwehand (PvdD)
 * 31 October: Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) and Frans Timmermans (GL/PvdA)
 * 1 November: Thierry Baudet (FvD) and Rob Jetten (D66)
 * 2 November: Caroline van der Plas (BBB) and Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius (VVD)
 * 3 November: Laurens Dassen (Volt), Edson Olf (BIJ1) and Chris Stoffer (SGP)
 * 4 November: Henri Bontenbal (CDA) and Lilian Marijnissen (SP)
 * 5 November: Joost Eerdmans (JA21), Stephan van Baarle (Denk) and Wybren van Haga (BVNL)

Assaults and attacks on Thierry Baudet
Thierry Baudet, founder and leader of the far-right Forum for Democracy (FvD) was attacked with an umbrella upon his arrival at Ghent University on 26 October 2023, resulting in a mild concussion.

On 20 November, Baudet was beaten with a beer bottle at a campaign event in Groningen, and was later hospitalised. Numerous politicians denounced the attack, with Mark Rutte stating that the attack was "totally unacceptable". The far-left group AFA Noord claimed responsibility for the attack.

Opinion polls
The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) established a lead in the polls following its victory in the 2023 Dutch provincial elections, but started to decline in May 2023, and further declined when Pieter Omtzigt announced he would contest the election with his newly established party New Social Contract (NSC), which immediately performed well in the polls at the expense of BBB. In the last polls before the election, NSC declined because it was unclear whether Pieter Omtzigt was willing to serve as prime minister should his party win the election. Their voters mostly diverted to VVD and PVV.



Results
Geert Wilders' PVV won 37 seats of the 150-seat parliament, more than doubling their seats from the previous election in 2021. The left-leaning GroenLinks–PvdA (GL-PvdA) finished second with 25 seats. The VVD party ended third with 24 seats. NSC came fourth with 20 seats.

Political analysis
International media described the results as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II", and as a landslide victory for the Party for Freedom (PVV). Many analysts speculated that the rise of the PVV was due to great debate performances by Wilders in the weeks leading to the election. When migration became the largest issue of the election, it helped to boost the appeal of Wilders. Some politics journalists opined that Wilders was able to build wider support by softening some of his statements after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz suggested she might include the PVV in negotiations and declaring in a debate that he would be "a Prime Minister for all Dutch people." Others commented ahead of the election that newer anti-establishment and alternative parties to the PVV such as the Forum for Democracy, JA21, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract ran out of steam when voters, having experimented with them, moved back to the PVV because Wilders had remained a stronger and more consistent political figure.

In addition, the leader of the GroenLinks–PvdA coalition, Frans Timmermans, was disliked by many right wingers, and since the VVD and NSC did not directly rule out working with either PVV or GL-PvdA, this led to right-wing voters consolidating around Wilders in order to prevent a Timmermans premiership. The Farmer–Citizen Movement saw a decline from their peak in the provincial elections in March, with many of their voters going towards NSC or PVV, for issues around nitrogen emissions were only a minor topic in the campaign.

The Dutch Parliamentary Election Study, a cooperation between 38 political scientists and sociologists, confirmed that migration was the largest concern amongst voters, resulting in the election win of issue owner PVV. Furthermore, it concluded a third of the electorate had changed their favored party during the campaign, including across different ideological blocks. The latter was partly caused by low trust in politics. According to the study, many voters – especially those voting for the PVV – favored a strong leader as a result of past political crises.

Reactions
Following his party's performance, Wilders was praised by Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. He was also praised by far-right leaders across Europe such as Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, André Ventura, Alice Weidel, Tom Van Grieken, and Santiago Abascal.

All parties of the incumbent coalition government lost seats in this election. Incumbent coalition party Democrats 66 leader Rob Jetten blamed the senior coalition party VVD and its leader Dilan Yeşilgöz for the successes of Wilders and the PVV in the election, saying on election night that "Yeşilgöz left the door wide open for Wilders" and blaming her party's campaign strategy for allowing "the politics of intolerance [to be] normalized while it should never be normal". Yeşilgöz denied her party's strategy was to blame for the PVV's success, saying, "It was not the VVD that made the PVV great. The voters did that."

Government formation
In February, Kim Putters (PvdA) was appointed informateur to determine the best structure for a new cabinet. He recommended forming an extra-parliamentary cabinet with PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB. Under the guidance of informateurs Elbert Dijkgraaf and Richard van Zwol, these parties reached an agreement on 15 May. Minister selection began on 23 May with formateur Van Zwol. On 28 May, civil servant Dick Schoof (independent) was nominated as Prime Minister after Ronald Plasterk withdrew over integrity concerns. The 29 cabinet members were sworn in on 2 July.