First Lady Bake-Off

The First Lady Bake-Off, renamed the Presidential Cookie Poll in 2016, was a baking competition held by Family Circle from 1992 until 2016 between the spouses of leading presidential candidates. It originated after Hillary Clinton made a political gaffe which was interpreted by some as disparaging baking or housewives. The competition later became known for frequently mirroring the results of presidential elections. It was canceled after Family Circle went out of business in 2019.

Background
The competition was inspired by a political gaffe made by Hillary Clinton in 1992 during her husband Bill Clinton's presidential campaign. In response to questions about her career and the Whitewater controversy, she stated that "I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but what I decided to do was to fulfill my profession, which I entered before my husband was in public life". These remarks were controversial, and were perceived by some as a slight on housewives. Seeking to capitalize on the controversy, the magazine Family Circle came up with the idea of a cooking contest between the wives of presidential candidates. The competition gave potential First Ladies the opportunity to publish cookie recipes in the magazine, which its subscribers would then bake and vote for their favorites. The winning recipes were announced in October, ahead of the presidential election.

Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, said that Clinton's remarks "stepped outside the bounds of what was seen as the traditional role of first lady, potential first lady [...] the price she paid was being placed in the midst of a cookie bake-off." Kelly Faircloth of Jezebel attributed the backlash towards Clinton's comments and the success of the contest to contemporary anxieties about the increasing number of career women. According to media science professor Tammy R. Vigil, media coverage of the bake-off portrayed the women participating as adhering to traditional gender roles and published anecdotes about their domestic lives that contributed to this image.

Clinton reportedly took the competition seriously and enlisted friends to help her with baking, as a way to recover from the gaffe and make herself appear more traditional. Clinton won the competition against her opponent Barbara Bush. Bush later wrote that her recipe had been borrowed from a housemate.

2004 election
During the 2004 US Presidential election, Laura Bush's cowboy cookies beat Teresa Kerry's pumpkin spice cookies. Kerry told NPR and The New York Times that she disapproved of the recipe and suspected one of her staff of purposely sabotaging her by submitting an unappealing recipe. She further stated that she did not like pumpkin cookies and had never made them before. Kerry's office claimed that they had originally submitted a recipe called "Yummy Wonders" which was rejected by Family Circle, and one of her staffers submitted pumpkin spice cookies as a replacement without consulting her. Kerry's press secretary Marla Romash corroborated her statements, saying that "If you tasted those [pumpkin] cookies, you'd think someone was trying to do you harm, too."

2008 election
Cindy McCain's Oatmeal-Butterscotch cookies beat Michelle Obama's shortbread cookies during the 2008 US presidential election, although McCain was accused of plagiarizing her recipe from a packaging for Hershey's. This marked the first time in the contest's history that the results differed from the presidential election, as John McCain lost to Barack Obama.

2016 election and 2020 cancellation
The competition was renamed the "Presidential Cookie Poll" during the 2016 US presidential election, when Hillary Clinton was the Democratic presidential nominee against Donald Trump and her husband Bill was in the running for First Gentleman. Bill Clinton submitted the same chocolate chip cookie recipe as Hillary had in previous years. His decision to repeat his wife's recipe was criticized by The Atlantic, although he won the competition.

The bake-off was canceled in 2020, after Family Circle went out of business in 2019, meaning that Jill Biden and Melania Trump did not compete against each other during the 2020 US presidential election.

Reception
The competition has been criticized by some commentators for being regressive, demeaning, and promoting sexist stereotypes about women's roles. Faith Salie of CBS called it "retrograde tradition that began either with sexism or irony".

Comparison to electoral results
The competition became known for often predicting the results of the presidential election, with its results matching the outcome of five out of seven elections. The streak was first broken in 2008, when McCain's cookies beat Obama's. Various commentators identified key ingredients whose inclusion made it more likely that a cookie would win the competition, such as chocolate and oatmeal.