Gambling for resurrection
Gambling for resurrection is a situation in international relations when a leader weakened domestically is willing to risk war or prolong war to maintain office.
Theory[edit]
Leaders who are weakened domestically often undertake risky policies to avoid undesirable developments for them personally. The fear of removal from office due to poor performance or bad luck may prompt a leader to instigate a diversionary war (or some other risky course of action) that he or she might not rationally have started, in the hope that should it go well he or she would stay in power, or at least achieve a surge in personal popularity and patriotism to sustain them in power. Gambling for resurrection could also mean prolonging an existing war that should rationally be ended, and might normally have resulted in removal from office or punishment (imprisonment, exile, or death).[1] The leader thus continues the war against the country's interest, adopting risky military strategies in the hope of a dramatic reversal of fortune in the war's outcome.[2] In this situation, escalation is more attractive than peace because the losses are below the leader's removal threshold. Once it appears that the leader will in any case be removed from office, there is no other sanction that can be applied to the leader — who thus has nothing to risk from further escalation, but may win the right to stay in office should the gamble be successful.[3]
Examples[edit]
It is seldom possible to provide conclusive proof that a leader's decision to go to war or prolong war is motivated by personal or domestic political issues. However, some conflicts may be seen as gambles for resurrection, including:
- The Argentinian invasion of the Falkland/Malvinas Islands, which was seen as a distraction from President Leopoldo Galtieri's domestic problems, and an attempt to unify the country in its territorial claim over the islands. After her victory in the conflict Margaret Thatcher called a khaki election in the UK, winning decisively, and Galtieri was ousted the same year.
- President Bill Clinton was involved in a sex scandal and started three military strikes in 1998 in the heat of the scandal: against Iraq; targets in the Sudan and Afghanistan; and Serbia. This followed just three months after the release of the film "Wag the dog" (see below), and apparently mirrored the film's theme.[4]
- Adolf Hitler refused to surrender at the end of the Second World War, when defeat was inevitable and surrender was in the best interests of Germany. His suicide may be seen as an attempt to preserve his historical reputation, though his mental state is uncertain.
Pop culture influence[edit]
Gambling for resurrection is often referred to in the mainstream media as "Wag the dog," a reference to a 1997 film by the same name in which a fictional President of the United States starts a fake diversionary war to distract the American public from a sex scandal.
References[edit]
- ^ Goemans, H. E. (2000). War and Punishment; The Causes of War Termination and the First World War. Princeton University Press.
- ^ Downs, George W.; David M. Rocke (1995). Optimal Imperfection? Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions in International Relations. Princeton University Press.
- ^ Downs, George W.; David M. Rocke (May 1994). "Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War". American Journal of Political Science. 38 (2). Midwest Political Science Association: 362–380. doi:10.2307/2111408. ISSN 0092-5853. JSTOR 2111408.
- ^ Bruni, Frank (1998-08-21). "Is Life Imitating Art? 'Wag the Dog' Springs to Many Minds" (text). New York Times. Retrieved 2007-03-07.