George Modelski



George Modelski was Professor of political science in the University of Washington. Modelski was a professor there from 1967 to 1995.

Before working at the University of Washington, Modelski was a senior research fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies at the Australian National University.

Modelski did work on long-term processes in global politics and economics, as well as the world urban macrodynamics and world system evolution. He was a neorealist. In 2012 he was awarded with the Bronze Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.

Long cycles theory
George Modelski defines global order as a 'management network centred on a lead unit and contenders for leadership, (pursuing) collective action at the global level'. The system is allegedly cyclical. Each cycle is about 100 years' duration and a new hegemonic power appears each time: Portugal 1492-1580; in the Age of Discovery the Netherlands 1580-1688; beginning with the Eighty Years' War, 1579-1588 United Kingdom (1) 1688-1792; beginning with the wars of Louis XVI United Kingdom (2) 1792-1914; beginning with the French Revolution and Napoleonic wars the United States 1914 to (predicted) 2030; beginning with World War I and two. Each cycle has four phases;

1, Global War, which a) involves almost all global powers, b) is 'characteristically naval' c) is caused by a system breakdown, d) is extremely lethal, e) results in a new global leader, capable of tackling global problems. The war is a 'decision process' analogous to a national election. The Thirty Years War, though lasting and destructive, was not a 'global war'

2, World Power, which lasts for 'about one generation'. The new incumbent power 'prioritises global problems', mobilises a coalition, is decisive and innovative. Pre-modern communities become dependent on the hegemonic power

3, Delegitimation. This phase can last for 20–27 years; the hegemonic power falters, as rival powers assert new nationalistic policies.

4, Deconcentration. The hegemony's problem-solving capacity declines. It yields to a multipolar order of warring rivals. Pre-modern communities become less dependent. A challenger appears (successively, Spain, France, France, Germany, and the USSR) and a new global war ensues.

The hegemonic nations tend to have: 'insular geography'; a stable, open society; a strong economy; strategic organisation, and strong political parties. By contrast, the 'challenger' nations have: closed systems; absolute rulers; domestic instability; and continental geographic locations.

The long cycle system is repetitive, but also evolutionary. According to Modelski, it originated in about 1493 through a) the decline of Venetian naval power, b) Chinese abandonment of naval exploration, and c) discovery of sea routes to India and the Americas. It has developed in parallel with the growth of the nation-state, political parties, command of the sea, and 'dependency of pre-modern communities'. The system is flawed, lacking in coherence, solidarity, and capacity to address the North-South divide. Modelski speculates that US deconcentration might be replaced by a power based in the 'Pacific rim' or by an explicit coalition of nations, as 'co-operation is urgently required in respect of nuclear weapons'.

Modelski 'dismisses the idea that international relations are anarchic'. His research, influenced by Immanuel Wallerstein, was 'measured in decades... a major achievement' says Peter J. Taylor

Books

 * Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change, 2008, co-editor, ISBN 978-0-415-77361-4;
 * World Cities -3000 to 2000, 2003, ISBN 0-9676230-1-4;
 * Leading Sectors and World Powers: The Coevolution of Global Economics and Politics with William R. Thompson, 1996, ISBN 1-57003-054-5
 * World System History: The social science of long-term change, 2000, co-editor, ISBN 0-415-23276-7;
 * Documenting Global Leadership1988, co-editor, ISBN 0-333-46495-8;
 * Seapower in global politics, 1494-1993, 1988, with William R. Thompson, ISBN 0-333-42925-7;
 * Long Cycles in World Politics 1987 ISBN 0-295-96430-8; Japanese edition "Sekai shisutemu no dotai", 1991, ISBN 4-7710-0510-9;
 * Exploring Long Cycles, 1987, ISBN 0-931477-98-0;
 * North-South Relations, 1983, co-editor, ISBN 0-03-062822-9;
 * Transnational Corporations and World Order,1979, editor, ISBN 0-7167-1025-0;
 * Multinational Corporations and World Order, 1972, editor, ISBN 0-8039-0317-0
 * Principles of world politics 1972, LOC card No. 70-163237;
 * A theory of foreign policy 1962, LOC card no.62-12472
 * SEATO: Six Studies, editor, 1962.