Greenhouse gas emissions by China

China's greenhouse gas emissions are the largest of any country in the world both in production and consumption terms, and stem mainly from coal burning, including coal power, coal mining, and blast furnaces producing iron and steel. When measuring production-based emissions, China emitted over 14 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases in 2019, 27% of the world total. When measuring in consumption-based terms, which adds emissions associated with imported goods and extracts those associated with exported goods, China accounts for 13 gigatonnes (Gt) or 25% of global emissions. According to the Carbon Majors Database, Chinese state coal production alone accounts for 14% of historic global emissions.

, the country's greenhouse gas emissions have exceeded the combined emissions of the developed world. However, China's per person emissions have remained considerably lower than those in the developed world. This corresponds to over 10.1 tonnes CO2eq emitted per person each year, slightly over the world average and the EU average but significantly lower than the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States, with its 17.6 tonnes per person. Accounting for historic emissions, OECD countries produced four times more CO 2 in cumulative emissions than China, due to developed countries' early start in industrialization. Overall, China is a net exporter of greenhouse emissions.

The targets laid out in China's nationally determined contribution in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to properly combat global warming. China has committed to peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060. In order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C coal plants in China without carbon capture must be phased out by 2045. China continues to build coal-fired power stations in 2020 and promised to "phase down" coal use from 2026. According to various analysis, China is estimated to overachieve its renewable energy capacity and emission reduction goals early, but long-term plans are still required to combat the global climate change and meeting the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.

In 2024, China recorded a 3% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the previous year. This development suggests that emissions might have peaked sooner than the 2030 target initially set. The reduction was largely attributed to an expansion in wind and solar power capacities, which largely covered the increased demand for electricity, coupled with a downturn in the property sector that resulted in lower emissions from industries like steel and cement manufacturing. However, several challenges remain, including the technical difficulties of integrating solar energy into the existing power grid and a continued dependence on coal, which experienced a 2% increase in use in 2023.

Greenhouse gas sources
Since 2006, China has been the world's largest emitter of annually. According to estimates provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 amounted to 6.2 billion tons, and the United States' co-production in the same year was 5.8 billion tons. In 2006, China's carbon dioxide emissions were 8 percent higher than America's, the agency said. The U.S. emitted 2% more carbon dioxide in 2005 than China. China ratified the Kyoto Protocol as a non-Annex B party without binding targets, and ratified the Paris Agreement to fight climate change. As the world's largest coal producer and consumer country, China worked hard to change energy structure and experienced a decrease in coal consumption since 2013 to 2016. However, China, the United States and India, the three biggest coal users, have increased coal mining in 2017. The Chinese government has implemented several policies to control coal consumption, and boosted the usage of natural gas and electricity. Looking ahead, the construction and manufacturing industries of China will give way to the service industry, and the Chinese government will not set a higher goal for economic growth in 2018; thus coal consumption may not experience continuous growth in the next few years.

In 2019, China is estimated to have emitted 27% of the world's greenhouse gases, followed by the US with 11%, then India with 6.6%. By 2020, China produced 64% to 66% of global emissions for the two potent greenhouse gases of tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane, according to a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

China is implementing some policies to mitigate the bad effects of climate change, most of which aim to constrain coal consumption. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of China set goals and committed to peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 in the latest, and increase the use of non-fossil fuel energy carriers, taking up 20% of the total primary energy supply. If China successfully reached NDC's targets, the GHG emissions level would be 12.8–14.3 Gte in 2030, reducing 64% to 70% of emission intensity below 2005 levels. China has surpassed solar deployment and wind energy deployment targets for 2020.

Energy production
According to the Carbon Majors Database, Chinese state coal production accounts for 14% of historic global emissions, more than double the proportion of the former Soviet Union.

Power is estimated as the largest emitter, with 27% of greenhouse gases produced in 2020 generated by the power sector. Most electricity in China comes from coal, which accounted for 65% of the electricity generation mix in 2019. Electricity generation by renewables has been increasing, with the construction of wind and solar plants doubling from 2019 to 2020.

According to a 2020 study by Energy Foundation China, in order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C, coal plants without carbon capture must be phased out by 2045.

Transport was estimated in 2021 to be less than 10% of the country's emissions but growing.

According to Natural Resources Defense Council, the Chinese power sector is estimated to hit the carbon emission peak around 2029.

Energy consumption
According to the 2016 Chinese Statistical Yearbook published by China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's energy consumption was 430,000 (10,000 tons of Standard Coal Equivalent), including 64% coal, 18.1% crude oil, 5.9% natural gas, 12.0% primary electricity, and other energy. Since 2011, the percentage of coal has decreased, and the percentage of crude oil, natural gas, primary electricity, and other energy have increased.

China experienced an increase in electricity demand and usage in 2017 as the economy accelerated. According to the Climate Data Explorer published by World Resources Institute, China, the European Union, and the U.S. contributed to more than 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2016, China's greenhouse gas emissions accounted for 26% of total global emissions. The energy industry has been the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions since the last decade.

Industry
In terms of industrial production, China creates 1.26 Gt of greenhouse gases in 2020 and, judging by Climate Watch's chart, there is no downward trend at all. Industrial production accounts for 22.76% of all China's GHG emissions in the latest Climate TRACE data for 2022.

Cement
Cement is estimated to be 15% of emissions but only a tenth of companies are reporting data as of 2021.

Iron and steel
Steel is estimated at 15% to 20% of emissions and consolidation of the industry may help.

Transportation
A significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions also includes carbon dioxide exported by transportation. Although, China is now very successful in its transition to electric vehicles. According to ClimateWatch, China's transportation CO2 emissions account for 11% of global transportation GHG emissions, second only to the United States (21%). These figures are growing rapidly: between 2012 and 2019, China's CO2 emissions from transportation will grow at an average annual rate of 4%, placing it in second place among the top 10 countries with the highest transportation emissions in 2019, behind India at 5%.

Agriculture
Agriculture accounts for 7.65% of China's greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. Methane emissions from food systems in China account for 34.1% of total emissions. Methane emissions mainly come from agricultural production and the exploration phase of mines. While methane accounted for only 13.2% of China's anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2018, the proportion of methane in GHG emissions from food systems is noteworthy. We find that N2O has the second highest share of GHG emissions at 14.1%, which is mainly attributed to agricultural production. Although fuel combustion contributes to N2O emissions, livestock manure management and fertilizer use in crop cultivation at the production stage are the main contributors.

Waste
China also produces large amounts of greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the process of treating waste. In the 2022 Climate Trace statistics, waste treatment accounts for 7.06% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions. Waste disposal is the fourth largest source of GHG emissions in China, and landfills and incineration still dominate municipal waste disposal in China. As a result of the Chinese government's policy of mandatory waste separation in 11 prefectural-level cities, the GHG emissions from waste disposal are decreasing at an efficiency of 0.1% per year, which is effective, but the implementation of waste separation needs to be strengthened. Most municipal solid waste is sent to landfill.

Coal mine methane
China is by far the largest emitter of methane from coal mines.

Mitigation
A 2011 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report predicted that Chinese emissions will peak around 2030. This because in many areas such as infrastructure, housing, commercial building, appliances per household, fertilizers, and cement production a maximum intensity will be reached and replacement will take the place of new demand. The 2030 emissions peak also became China's pledge at the Paris COP21 summit. Carbon emission intensity may decrease as policies become strengthened and more effectively implemented, including by more effective financial incentives, and as less carbon intensive energy supplies are deployed. In a "baseline" computer model emissions were predicted to peak in 2033; in an "Accelerated Improvement Scenario" they were predicted to peak in 2027. China also established 10 binding environmental targets in its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). These include an aim to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2020, as well as a binding target for renewable energy at 15% of total energy, raised from under 12% in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. According to BloombergNEF the levelized cost of electricity from new large-scale solar power has been below existing coal-fired power stations since 2021.

Policy
Climate change mitigation policy in China is an important environmental protection strategy since the 2010s after rapid domestic developments.

In the past 20 years, China has published 4 legislative laws and 5 executive plans as outlines regarding the climate change issues. Government departments and local governments also developed their own special plans and implementation methods based on the national outline. In 2015 China joined the Paris Agreement to globally constrain the temperature rise and greenhouse gas emission.

In 2020, China's fourteenth five-year plan contained key climate- and energy-related ideas for energy transition and global efforts to tackle climate change.

Forest Law of the People's Republic of China (1998)
The aim of this law was to conserve and rationally exploit forest resources. It accelerated territorial afforestation and cultivation while also ensuring forest product management, production, and supply in order to meet socialist construction requirements.

Energy Conservation Law (2007)
The aim of this law was to strengthen energy conservation, especially for key energy-using institutions, as well as to encourage energy efficiency and energy-saving technology. The legislation allowed the government to promote and facilitate the use of renewable energy in a variety of applications.

Renewable Energy Act (2009)
This Act outlines the responsibilities of the government, businesses, and other users in the production and use of renewable energy. It includes policies and targets relating to mandatory grid connectivity, market control legislation, differentiated pricing, special funds, and tax reliefs, as well as a target of 15 percent renewable energy by 2020.

12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)
The 12th Five-Year Plan sought to make domestic consumption and development more economically equitable and environmentally friendly. It also shifted the economy's focus away from heavy industry and resource-intensive manufacturing and into a more consumer-driven, resource-efficient economy.

The National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (2013)
The strategy established clear guidelines and principles for adapting to and mitigating climate change. It includes interventions such as early-warning identification and information-sharing systems at the national and regional levels, an ocean disaster monitoring system, and coastal restoration to protect water supplies, reduce soil erosion, and improve disaster prevention.

National Plan For Tackling Climate Change (2014-2020)
The National Plan For Tackling Climate Change is a national law that includes prevention, adaptation, scientific study, and public awareness. By 2020, China plans to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 percent compared to 2005 levels, raise the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15%, and increase forest area and stock volume by 40 million hectares and 1.3 million m3, respectively, compared to 2005 levels.

Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)
This plan aimed to reduce China's high energy consumption per unit of GDP through a series of steps and mandatory goals, encouraging more productive, self-sufficient, renewable, and creative energy production and consumption.

Law on the Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution (2016)
The aim of this law is to preserve and improve the environment, prevent and regulate air pollution, protect public health, advance ecological civilization, and promote economic and social growth that is sustainable. It demands that robust emission control initiatives be implemented against the pollution caused by the burning of coal, industrial production, motor vehicles and vessels, dust as well as agricultural activities.

13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020)
The 13th Five Year Plan published the strategy and pathway for China's development during 2016-2020 and set specific environmental and productivity goals. Peak goals for carbon emissions, energy use, and water use were established in the 13th Five Year Plan. It also stated objectives for increasing industry productivity, removing obsolete or overcapacity production facilities, increasing renewable energy production, and improving green infrastructure.

Emissions Trading
The Chinese Ministry of Finance originally proposed a carbon tax in 2010, to come into effect in 2012 or 2013. The tax was never passed; in February 2021 the government instead set up a carbon trading scheme.

Vehicles
Vehicles account for around 8% of the heat-trapping gases released annually in China. As the Chinese vehicle stock rises and heavy manufacturing as a percentage of the overall economy declines, this percentage will rise in the coming years. Fuel performance regulations and funding for electric vehicles are two of the Chinese government's key policies on vehicle emissions. The government refers to vehicles fueled by non-petroleum fuels as "new energy vehicles," or "NEVs." Almost all NEVs in China today are battery-powered plug-in electric vehicles.

Eco-Cities
The Chinese government has strategically promoted Eco-Cities in China as a policy measure for addressing rising greenhouse gas emissions resulting from China's rapid urbanization and industrialization. These projects seek to blend green technologies and sustainable infrastructure to build large, environmentally friendly cities nationwide. The government has launched three programs to incentivize cities to undertake eco-city construction, encouraging hundreds of cities to announce plans for eco-city developments.

14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025)
The 14th FYP(Five Year Plan) was created in September, 2020 as the key climate- and energy-related plan that is critical to China's energy transition and global efforts to tackle climate change.

On September 22, 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping stated: "China will increase its nationally determined contributions, adopt more powerful policies and measures, strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060."

Of particular interest is how China will integrate into the FYP to achieve peak carbon before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The plan will be seen by many as a test of how seriously the pledge is being taken at the policy level.

Unlike most nations that have committed to carbon neutrality, China's economy grows rapidly. China is still a developing country and, as of 2020, growth was still linked to carbon emissions. In the 14th Five Year Plan, the Chinese government revealed climate mitigation goals including higher share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix, reduction of emissions per unit of GDP, carbon cap for the power sector, reduction of fine particle pollution in key cities, and greater forest coverage. These goals cover industrial production, transportation, forestry, and citizens’ daily life aspects.

U.S.-China Cooperation
On April 15 and 16, 2021, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and China Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua met in Shanghai to discuss aspects of the climate crisis. U.S. and China Finally released joint statement and decided to cooperating with each other and with other countries to tackle the climate crisis. According to the joint statement on U.S. Department of State, "This includes both enhancing their respective actions and cooperating in multilateral processes, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement."

In short term, The United States and China take following actions to further address the climate crisis:


 * Both countries intend to develop by COP 26 in Glasgow their respective long-term strategies aimed at net zero GHG emissions/carbon neutrality.
 * Both countries intend to take appropriate actions to maximize international investment and finance in support of the transition from carbon-intensive fossil fuel based energy to green, low-carbon and renewable energy in developing countries.
 * They will each implement the phasedown of hydrofluorocarbon production and consumption reflected in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.

In addition, both countries will continue to discuss concrete actions in the 2020s to reduce emissions aimed at keeping the Paris Agreement-aligned temperature limit within reach. Potential areas include policies, measures, and technologies to decarbonize industry and power; Increased deployment of renewable energy; Green and climate resilient agriculture; Energy efficient buildings; Green, low-carbon transportation; Cooperation on addressing emissions of methane and other non- greenhouse gases; Cooperation on addressing emissions from international civil aviation and maritime activities; and other near-term policies and measures, including with respect to reducing emissions from coal, oil, and gas.

Energy efficiency
In 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao promised to use an "iron hand" to make China more energy efficient.

Energy efficiency improvements have somewhat offset increases in energy output as China continues to develop. Since 2006, the Chinese government has increased export taxes on energy-inefficient industries, reduced import tariffs on certain non-renewable energy resources, and closed down a number of inefficient power and industrial plants. In 2009, for example, for every two new plants (in terms of energy generation capacity) built, one inefficient plant was closed. China is unique in its closing of so many inefficient plants.

Renewable energy
China is the world's leading investor in wind turbines and other renewable energy technologies and produces more wind turbines and solar panels each year than any other country.

China is the world leader in renewable energy deployment, with more than twice the ability of any other nation. China accounted for 43% of global renewable energy capacity additions in 2018. For decades, hydropower has been a major source of energy in China. In the last ten years, wind and solar power have risen significantly. Renewables accounted for approximately a quarter of China's electricity generation in 2018, with 18% coming from hydropower, 5% from wind, and 3% from solar.

Nuclear power is planned to be rapidly expanded. By mid-century fast neutron reactors are seen as the main nuclear power technology which allows much more efficient use of fuel resources.

China has also dictated new energy standards for lighting and gas kilometrage for cars.

Co-benefits
Like India, cutting greenhouse gas emissions together with air pollution in China, saves enough lives to easily cover the cost.

Impact of 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak
A temporary slowdown in manufacturing, construction, transportation, and overall economic activity during the beginning of the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak reduced China's greenhouse gas emissions by "about a quarter," as reported in February 2020. Nonetheless, for the year April 1, 2020 – March 31, 2021, China's emissions reached a record high: nearly 12 billion metric tons. Additionally, China's carbon emissions during the first quarter of 2021 were higher than in the first quarters of both 2019 and 2020. Temporary reductions in carbon emissions due to lockdowns and initial economic relief efforts have limited long-term consequences, while the future direction of fiscal stimulus plays a more significant role in influencing long-term carbon emissions.

Targets
The targets laid out in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to properly combat global warming. China also established 10 binding environmental targets in its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). These include an aim to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2020, as well as a binding target for renewable energy at 15% of total energy, raised from under 12% in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan also set, for the first time, a cap on total energy use from all sources: no more than 5 billion tons of coal through 2020.