RealClearPolitics

RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator. The site was formed in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. The site features selected political news stories and op-eds from various news publications in addition to commentary from its own contributors. The site receives most traffic during election season for its aggregation of polling data. In 2008, the site's founders said their goal was to give readers "ideological diversity".

Establishment
The website was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a former trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a former advertising agency account executive. McIntyre explained "it really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information." They call what they do "intelligent aggregation". The site has grown in election-season spurts since it first went online. It has expanded from a two-man operation to a full-time staff of more than two dozen employees overseeing the company's mainstay, RealClearPolitics, as well as ten smaller sites.

Both co-founders graduated from Princeton in 1991. When they launched the site, they would both start their day at 4 a.m., looking through articles from more than 50 sources. They post pieces on current events and topics, as well as news about opinion polls. The site reports on political races and projections, and features the average result of all current presidential polls and also offers a best-guess projection of Electoral College votes.

The site's poll average is a "widely referenced source". Major news outlets including CNN, Fox News, and The New York Times often cite its polling figures.

2000 to 2017
RealClearPolitics, often referred to as nonpartisan by sources like The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, emerged as a significant platform during the 2008 elections. Its founders, aiming to provide ideological diversity, curated political stories, op-eds, news analyses, and editorials to offer readers a balanced view of the political landscape. The site's utility was recognized by figures such as Politico's executive editor Jim VandeHei, who called it an essential resource for political enthusiasts. The Chicago Sun-Times in 2012 also acknowledged the site's balanced selection of stories, and BuzzFeed’s top editor praised its polling average as highly reliable.

The site has shown a conservative inclination in its content and commentary, as noted by various sources over the years. In early interviews and articles, founders McIntyre and Bevan openly discussed their conservative viewpoints and criticism of mainstream media biases. A 2001 Princeton Alumni Weekly article highlighted their political leanings, and a 2004 Time article described the site's commentary section as "right-leaning." By 2009, it was considered part of the conservative media spectrum, and academic texts have described it as run by conservatives while providing a range of opinion pieces. This blend of perceived nonpartisanship and conservative tendencies has shaped its reputation and influence in political discourse.

2017 onward
In November 2020, The New York Times published an article alleging that since 2017, when many of its "straight-news" reporting journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics showed a pro-Trump turn with donations to its affiliated nonprofit increasing, much from entities supported by wealthy conservatives. RCP executive editor Carl Cannon disputed the newspaper's allegations of a rightward turn, saying that he had solicited donations from both conservative and liberal donors, without them "buying coverage". Several journalists who talked to The New York Times in 2020 said they never felt any pressure from the site's founders to bias their stories. Cannon stated that RCP regularly publishes perspectives from both liberal and conservative publications, saying that "the simple fact is that the amount of liberal material published in RCP every week dwarfs the annual conservative content in The New York Times".

The New York Times also said that "Real Clear became one of the most prominent platforms for elevating unverified and reckless stories about the president's political opponents, through a mix of its own content and articles from across conservative media...." and that for days after the election, "Real Clear Politics gave top billing to stories that reinforced the false narrative that the president could still somehow eke out a win." Cannon responded by highlighting two articles suggesting that "Trump could somehow eke out a win" on RCP's front page by noting that 374 articles had been covered on its front page between the time of the election and The New York Times' article, including 16 articles from The New York Times itself.

In 2016, RealClearInvestigations was launched, backed by foundations associated with conservative causes, such as the Ed Uihlein Family Foundation and Sarah Scaife Foundation. In 2019, the site published an article by a conservative author, Paul Sperry, containing the supposed name of a U.S. intelligence officer who blew the whistle on the Trump–Ukraine scandal. The article's publication came as part of a month-long effort by Trump allies on media and social media to "unmask" the whistleblower, whose identity was kept confidential by the U.S. government, in accordance with whistleblower protection (anti-retaliation) laws. Most publications declined to reveal the whistleblower's identity; Tom Kuntz, editor of RealClearInvestigations, defended the site's decision to publish the article. Cannon stated that whistleblower protections did not ensure anonymity from journalism, instead guaranteeing protection from firing, prosecution, and professional punishment.

Ownership
Forbes Media LLC bought a 51% equity interest in the site in 2007. On May 19, 2015, RealClearInvestors and Crest Media announced that they had bought out Forbes's stake for an undisclosed amount.

RealClearPolitics also owns RealClearMarkets, RealClearWorld, and RealClearSports. RealClearMarkets and RealClearSports were launched in November 2007. RealClearWorld, the international news and politics site, was launched in August 2008. RealClearScience and RealClearReligion launched in October 2010. RealClearHistory launched in 2012. In 2013, RealClearDefense was launched to cover military, intelligence, and veterans' issues.

Original content
In addition to linking to external content, RealClearPolitics also provides original commentary and reporting, with a staff that includes White House reporter Philip Wegmann, White House and national political correspondent Susan Crabtree,   associate editor and columnist A.B. Stoddard,  and columnist J. Peder Zane.

Former employees include Caitlin Huey-Burns, Alexis Simendinger, James Arkin, Mike Memoli, Kyle Trygstad, Reid Wilson, and Rebecca (Berg) Buck.

Political poll averaging
RealClearPolitics aggregates polls for presidential and congressional races into averages, known as the RealClearPolitics average, which are widely cited by media outlets. Both major presidential campaigns in 2004 said that the RCP polling average was the best metric of the race. In 2008, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight said that RealClearPolitics was rigging its averages to favor Senator John McCain and other Republicans, although he later receded from this claim, indicating that his site and RCP had a friendly rivalry. McIntyre denied having a conservative bent, saying that the site was a business and had "no interest in screwing around with that for partisan purposes".

In 2012, Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of BuzzFeed, said "They are a huge force. Their polling average is the Dow Jones of campaign coverage."

In 2016, Republicans performed 1.7% better than the final RealClearPolitics average, and Republicans performed 3.3% better than the site's average in 2014. In the 2016 presidential election, the final RealClearPolitics average margin overestimated Democrat Hillary Clinton's popular vote performance by 1.3%. The final electoral college prediction map produced by RealClearPolitics predicted the average outcome to be that she would narrowly win the election with 272 electoral votes. However, she lost the election to Republican Donald Trump despite winning the popular vote. In 2018, the site underestimated the Democratic vote in the 2018 congressional elections by just over one percentage point.

Right before Super Tuesday during the 2016 presidential primaries, Bevan called Super Tuesday for Donald Trump, telling The New York Times, "It will be a Trump tsunami" and predicting a Trump victory in every state holding a primary that day except for Texas.

An article in The New York Times said that "top political analysts" raised concerns about RealClearPolitics polling averages influenced by polls skewing towards Trump and not adhering to "best practices like person-to-person phone interviews" during the 2020 presidential elections. Cannon responded by noting that RCP's polling average in the election was off by 1.47 points in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden across 7 battleground states, compared to 4.87 points in favor of Biden for polling conducted by The New York Times.

Public opinion
In 2018, RealClear Media launched RealClear Opinion Research, a public opinion polling group. The group has conducted public opinion polls about school choice for the American Federation for Children, the confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court for the National Catholic Register, and civic education for the Jack Miller Center.