Results breakdown of the 2021 Canadian federal election

The 2021 Canadian federal election was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The Liberal Party of Canada was returned once more with a minority of the seats, and the composition of the House saw very little change.

Summary
The election was described as being "like a game of tug of war in which the rope won." The remarkable similarity of the seat results and those in 2019 may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre outcome has left its mark on the electorate. Both the Liberals and Conservatives saw marginal declines in their national shares of the votes.

Compared to 2019, Tory holds in Western Canada and Liberal ones in the GTA both declined, although one Conservative observer noted, "I am far more encouraged by the narrowing of margins in the suburbs, than I am discouraged or concerned by an Alberta MP only winning by 30,000 votes".

The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3%, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it. Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27, which took effect on November 14, after being officially accepted by the party's federal council.

In late November, the Greens released a report indicating that they were facing imminent insolvency, and were considering closing the Ottawa office. The party had lost 499 monthly donors since July 2021, and 6,259 members in the same length of time.

The increase of the People's Party share from 1.6% to 4.9% may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings. Votes obtained by individual PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc. Observers noted that a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.

Eight ridings were won by a margin of 1% or less, and judicial recounts were requested in four of them. One riding flipped from the Bloc to the Liberals, one Bloc victory was confirmed, and two proceedings were terminated when it became obvious that no change would occur.

Post-election pendulum
The robustness of the margins of victory for each party can be summarized in electoral pendulums. These are not necessarily a measure of the volatility of the respective riding results. The following tables show the margins over the various 2nd-place contenders, for which one-half of the value represents the swing needed to overturn the result. Actual seat turnovers in the 2021 election are noted for reference.


 * = seats that changed hands in the election

Seats that changed hands
The following seats changed allegiance from the 2019 election.


 * Conservative to Liberal
 * Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
 * Calgary Skyview
 * Cloverdale—Langley City
 * Edmonton Centre
 * Markham—Unionville
 * Richmond Centre
 * Steveston—Richmond East


 * Conservative to NDP
 * Edmonton Griesbach
 * Port Moody—Coquitlam


 * Liberal to Conservative
 * Bay of Quinte
 * Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame
 * Cumberland—Colchester
 * King—Vaughan
 * Miramichi—Grand Lake
 * Peterborough—Kawartha
 * South Shore—St. Margarets


 * Liberal to Green
 * Kitchener Centre


 * NDP to Liberal
 * Hamilton Mountain
 * St. John's East


 * Green to Liberal
 * Fredericton


 * Green to NDP
 * Nanaimo—Ladysmith


 * Independent to Liberal
 * Vancouver Granville

Defeated MPs
Of the 22 seats that changed hands, four were open seats where the MPs chose to retire, and one was where the MP crossed the floor in June and was re-elected under a new banner; the other 17 went down to defeat.

Open seats that changed hands
Of the 31 seats open at dissolution, four were won by a non-incumbent party:

Disavowed candidates
Below are the candidates who were disavowed by their parties and/or voluntarily ceased campaigning after candidate registration closed, remaining on the ballot with their original party affiliation.

MPs standing under a different political affiliation
Jenica Atwin, who was elected as the Green Party candidate in Fredericton in 2019, switched party affiliation to the Liberal Party in June 2021, and was re-elected as a Liberal. Two MPs elected in 2019 contested the election but left their party affiliation blank when they registered; however, both failed to be re-elected.

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates
Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

Elections Canada
Elections Canada reported the following general characteristics of voter turnout in the election, compared to 2019:

Together with Statistics Canada through its Labour Force Survey, analysis was undertaken in both 2019 and 2021 as to the reasons people gave for not voting: