Roy Amara

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925 – 31 December 2007 ) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering, and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Amara's law
His adage about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run."

The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.

Reports

 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.
 * Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.