Speculation on the disappearance of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan

Speculation on the disappearance of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan has continued since their disappearance in 1937. The fate of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan remain a subject of debate, various theories, and continuing research.

Gardner Island hypothesis


The Gardner Island hypothesis assumes that Earhart and Noonan, unable to find Howland Island, would not waste time searching for it, instead turning to the south to look for other islands. The 157/337 radio transmission suggests they flew a course of 157° that would take them past Baker Island; if they missed this, then sometime later they would fly over the Phoenix Islands, now part of the Republic of Kiribati, about 350 nmi south-southeast of Howland Island. One of the Phoenix Islands, known as Gardner Island (now Nikumaroro), has been the subject of inquiry as a possible crash-landing site. The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery (TIGHAR) presented a hypothesis that Earhart and Noonan found Gardner Island, uninhabited at the time, landed the Electra on a flat reef near the November 1929 wreck of freighter SS Norwich City, and sent sporadic radio messages from there. Ric Gillespie, author of Finding Amelia, wrote that while listening to alleged radio signals on their home radios, Mabel Larremore heard a woman claiming to be Earhart say Noonan was "seriously injured" and that she had "some injuries but not as serious as Mr. Noonan's." Betty Klenck heard an apparently injured man acting agitated with a distressed woman claiming to be Earhart, and uttering repeatedly what sounded like, "Marie". Noonan's wife's first name was Mary Bea. The man said "Water's knee deep-let me out." Klenck heard the woman say, "George, get the suitcase in my closet...California." Four years earlier, in a letter to her mother, Earhart had asked that, should anything ever happen to her, the suitcase of private papers stored in her closet in California be destroyed. Klenck heard the woman repeatedly say something that sounded like "New York City", which has been speculated to have been actually Norwich City, the freighter wreck.

A week after Earhart disappeared, Navy planes from USS Colorado (which had sailed from Pearl Harbor) searched Gardner Island. The planes saw signs of recent habitation and the wreck of the SS Norwich City, but repeated circling failed to see any sign of inhabitation. TIGHAR theorises that the Electra had by then been washed over the reef edge into the ocean where it broke up and sank. TIGHAR theorises that Earhart, and possibly Noonan, may have tried to survive on the island before perishing as castaways, just before a British exploratory expedition visited Gardner Island in October 1937, just three months after the disappearance. After the Navy ended its search, Earhart's husband, George P. Putnam, undertook a search in the Phoenix Group and other islands, but nothing was found. In October 1937, Eric Bevington and Henry E. Maude visited Gardner with some potential settlers. A group walked all the way around the island, but did not find a plane or other evidence. In December 1938, laborers landed on the island and started constructing a settlement. In late 1939, USS Bushnell (AS-2) did a survey of the island.

Around April 1940, a skull was discovered and buried, but British colonial officer Gerald Gallagher did not learn of it until September. Gallagher did a more thorough search of the discovery area, including looking for artifacts such as rings. The search found more bones, a bottle, a shoe, and a sextant box under a tree on the island's southeast corner. On September 23, 1940, Gallagher radioed his superiors that he had found a "skeleton ... possibly that of a woman", along with an old-fashioned sextant box (later revealed to have been left during a recent hydrographic survey), The box had two apparent serial numbers on it: 3500 and 1542. In October 2018, documents discovered at the National Archives and Records Administration showed that USS Bushnell had a Brandis and Sons sextant with USNO serial number 1542 in 1938–1939, well after Earhart's disappearance. The USS Bushnell, a U.S. Navy submarine tender that was assigned to hydrographic surveys in December 1937, visited Gardner Island and surveyed the island and its lagoon using sextants around November 1939, before the box was discovered by Gallagher. A Brandis and Sons sextant with serial number 3500 would have been made around the time of World War I. Gallagher stated that the "Bones look more than four years old to me but there seems to be very slight chance that this may be remains of Amelia Earhart." He was ordered to send the remains to Fiji. On 4 April 1941, Dr. D. W. Hoodless of the Central Medical School (later named the Fiji School of Medicine) examined the bones, took measurements, and wrote a report. Using Karl Pearson's formulas for stature and the lengths of the femur, tibia, and humerus, Hoodless concluded that the person was about 166.4 cm tall. Hoodless wrote that the skeleton "could be that of a short, stocky, muscular European, or even a half-caste, or person of mixed European descent." Earhart's 1930 pilot's license states she was 5 ft and 118 lb. Hoodless also wrote that "it may be definitely stated that the skeleton is that of a MALE. Owing to the weather-beaten condition of all the bones it is impossible to be dogmatic in regard to the age of the person at the time of death, but I am of the opinion that he was not less than 45 years of age and that probably he was older: say between 45 and 55 years." Earhart was just under 40 years old when she disappeared. Hoodless offered to make more detailed measurements if needed, but suggested that any further examination be done by the Anthropological Department at Sydney University. These bones were apparently misplaced in Fiji and presumed lost. Around the turn of the 21st century, researchers used Hoodless's measurements to argue against his conclusions that the bones were that of a male. In two 2015 episodes of Expedition Unknown, host Josh Gates searched under a house which had belonged to another doctor from the Fiji School of Medicine, where in 1968 the house's new owner had found a box containing bones including a skull; these were brought to a local museum and lost. Gates combed several bone fragments from the area where the box had been found; these were DNA tested and determined to belong to a male.

During World War II, US Coast Guard LORAN Unit 92, a radio navigation station built in the summer and fall of 1944, and operational from mid-November 1944 until mid-May 1945, was located on Gardner Island's southeast end. Dozens of Coast Guard personnel were involved in its construction and operation, but were mostly forbidden from leaving the small base or having contact with the Gilbertese colonists then on the island, and found no artifacts known to relate to Earhart.

In 1988, The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery (TIGHAR) began an investigation and sent eleven research expeditions to Nikumaroro, producing inconclusive results. They have suggested that Earhart and Noonan may have flown without further radio transmissions for two and a half hours along the line of position Earhart noted in her last transmission received at Howland, then found the then-uninhabited Gardner Island, landed the Electra on an extensive reef flat near the wreck of a large freighter (the SS Norwich City) on the northwest side of the atoll, and ultimately perished. Artifacts discovered by TIGHAR on Nikumaroro have included improvised tools, an aluminum panel, an oddly cut piece of clear Plexiglas, and a size-9 woman's shoe heel. Recently rediscovered photos of Earhart's Electra just before departure in Miami show an aluminum panel over a window on the right side. Ric Gillespie, head of TIGHAR, claimed that the aluminum panel artifact has the same dimensions and rivet pattern as the one shown in the photo "to a high degree of certainty". Based on this new evidence, Gillespie returned to the atoll in June 2015, but operations using a remotely operated underwater vehicle to investigate a sonar detection of a possible wreckage were hampered by technical problems. Further, a review of sonar data concluded it was most likely a coral ridge. In July 2017, staff from the New England Air Museum notified TIGHAR that the unique rivet pattern of the aluminum panel precisely matched the top of the wing of a Douglas C-47 Skytrain in the museum inventory, particularly significant since a C-47B crashed on a nearby island during World War II and villagers acknowledged bringing aluminum from that wreck to Gardner Island.

Some consider TIGHAR's theory the most plausible Earhart-survival theory, although not proven and not accepted beyond crash-and-sink. Other sources have criticized TIGHAR as seizing on unlikely possibilities as circumstantial evidence; for example, an article criticized the suggestion that a jar of freckle ointment found on Nikumaroro might have been Earhart's, when the Electra was "virtually a flying gas station" with little room for amenities, as Earhart and Noonan carried extra gas tanks in every scrap of available space and absence of any corroborating evidence connecting the artifact to her.

The 2019 National Geographic special Expedition Amelia depicts an August 2019 search for Earhart's aircraft off Nikumaroro's reef conducted by ocean explorer Robert Ballard, who has found several ocean wrecks including the Titanic. Ballard was intrigued by documented radio signal bearings that intersect near Nikumaroro, although they were taken from different locations and at different times. Ballard's expedition had more sophisticated search equipment than TIGHAR used on its expedition in 2012. He completed his expedition in October 2019. After days of searching the deep cliffs supporting the island and the nearby ocean, Ballard did not find any evidence of the plane or any associated wreckage of it. Allison Fundis, Ballard's chief operating officer of the expedition stated, "We felt like if her plane was there, we would have found it pretty early in the expedition." The documentary states of the Gardner Island hypothesis that "It's a nice story. But like all the other evidence obtained here over the decades, there is no provable link to Amelia or her plane."

Japanese capture theory
Another theory is that Earhart and Noonan were captured by Japanese forces, perhaps after somehow navigating to somewhere within the Japanese South Seas Mandate.

In 1966, CBS correspondent Fred Goerner published a book claiming that Earhart and Noonan were captured and executed when their aircraft crashed on the island of Saipan, part of the Northern Mariana Islands archipelago. Saipan is more than 2,700 miles away from Howland Island, however. Later proponents of the Japanese capture hypothesis have generally suggested the Marshall Islands instead, which while still distant from the intended location (~800 miles), is slightly more possible.

In 1990, the NBC series Unsolved Mysteries broadcast an interview with a Saipanese woman who claimed to have witnessed Earhart and Noonan's execution by Japanese soldiers. No independent confirmation has ever emerged for any of these claims. Various purported photographs of Earhart during her captivity have been identified as either fraudulent or having been taken before her final flight.

A slightly different version of the Japanese capture hypothesis is not that the Japanese captured Earhart, but rather that they shot down her plane. Henri Keyzer-Andre, a former Pan Am pilot, propounded this view in his 1993 book Age of Heroes: Incredible Adventures of a Pan Am Pilot and his Greatest Triumph, Unravelling the Mystery of Amelia Earhart.

Since the end of World War II, a location on Tinian, which is five miles (8 km) southwest of Saipan, had been rumored to be the grave of the two aviators. In 2004, an archaeological dig at the site failed to turn up any bones.

A recent proponent of this theory is Mike Campbell, who published the 2012 book Amelia Earhart: The Truth at Last in its favor. Campbell cites claims from Marshall Islanders to have witnessed a crash, as well as a U.S. Army sergeant who found a suspicious gravesite near a former Japanese prison on Saipan.

A number of Earhart's relatives have been convinced that the Japanese were somehow involved in Amelia's disappearance, citing unnamed witnesses including Japanese troops and Saipan natives. According to one cousin, the Japanese cut the Lockheed Electra into scrap and threw the pieces into the ocean, to explain why the airplane was not found in the Marshall Islands.

In 2017, a History Channel documentary called Amelia Earhart: The Lost Evidence, proposed that a photograph in the National Archives of Jaluit Atoll in the Marshall Islands was actually a picture of a captured Earhart and Noonan. The picture showed a Caucasian male on a dock who appeared to look like Noonan and a woman sitting on the dock but facing away from the camera, who was judged to have a physique and haircut resembling Earhart's. The documentary theorizes that the photo was taken after Earhart and Noonan crashed at Mili Atoll. The documentary also said that physical evidence recovered from Mili matches pieces that could have fallen off an Electra during a crash or subsequent overland move to a barge. The Lost Evidence proposed that a Japanese ship seen in the photograph was the Koshu Maru, a Japanese military ship. The Lost Evidence was quickly discredited, however, after Japanese blogger Kota Yamano found the original source of the photograph in the Archives in the National Diet Library Digital Collection. The original source of the photo was a Japanese travel guide published in October 1935, implying that the photograph was taken in 1935 or before, and thus would be unrelated to Earhart and Noonan's 1937 disappearance. Additionally, the researcher who discovered the photo also identified the ship in the right of the photo as another ship called Koshu, seized by Allied Japanese forces during World War I, and not the Koshu Maru.

A common criticism of all versions of the Japanese capture hypothesis is that the Japanese-controlled Marshall Islands were considerably distant from Howland Island. To reach and land there would have required Earhart and Noonan, though low on fuel, to change her northeast course as she neared Howland Island and fly hundreds of miles northwest, a feat "not supported by the basic rules of geography and navigation." Additionally, had the Japanese found a crashed Earhart and Noonan, they would have had substantial motivation to rescue the famous aviators and be hailed as heroes.

Spies for FDR
The World War II-era movie Flight for Freedom (1943) is a story of a fictional female aviator (obviously inspired by Earhart) who engages in a spying mission in the Pacific. The movie helped further a myth that Earhart was spying on the Japanese in the Pacific at the request of the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration. By 1949, both the United Press and U.S. Army Intelligence had concluded that this rumor was groundless. Jackie Cochran, another pioneering aviator and one of Earhart's friends, made a postwar search of numerous files in Japan and was convinced that the Japanese were not involved in Earhart's disappearance.

Tokyo Rose
A rumor that claimed that Earhart had made propaganda radio broadcasts as one of the many women compelled to serve as Tokyo Rose was investigated closely by George Putnam. According to several biographies of Earhart, Putnam investigated this rumor personally but after listening to many recordings of numerous Tokyo Roses, he did not recognize her voice among them.

New Britain
The theory that Earhart may have turned back mid-flight has been posited. She would then have tried to reach the airfield at Rabaul, New Britain (northeast of mainland Papua New Guinea), approximately 2200 mi from Howland.

In 1990, Donald Angwin, a veteran of the Australian Army's World War II campaign in New Britain, contacted researchers to suggest that a wrecked aircraft he had witnessed in jungle about 40 mi southwest of Rabaul, on April 17, 1945, may have been Earhart's Electra. Angwin, who had been a corporal in the 11th Battalion at the time, reported that he and other members of a forward patrol on Japanese-occupied New Britain had found a wrecked twin-engined, unpainted all-metal aircraft. The soldiers recorded a rough position on a map, along with serial numbers seen on the wreckage. The map was found in the possession of another veteran in 1993, but subsequent searches of the area indicated failed to find a wreck.

Angwin died in 2001. David Billings, an Australian aircraft engineer, has continued to investigate his theory. Billings claims that the serial numbers written on the map, "600H/P S3HI C/N1055", represent: These would be consistent with a Lockheed Electra 10E, such as that flown by Earhart, although they do not contain enough information to identify the wreck in question as NR16020.
 * a 600 hp Pratt & Whitney R-1340-S3H1 model engine; and
 * "Constructor's Number 1055", an airframe identifier.

Pacific Wrecks, a website that documents World War II-era aircraft crash sites, notes that no Electra has been reported lost in or around Papua New Guinea. Ric Gillespie of TIGHAR believes that based on Earhart's last estimated position, somewhat close to Howland Island, it was impossible for the aircraft to end up at New Britain, 2000 mi and over 13 hours' flight time away.

Assuming another identity
In November 2006, the National Geographic Channel aired episode two of the Undiscovered History series about a claim that Earhart survived the world flight, moved to New Jersey, changed her name, remarried and became Irene Craigmile Bolam. This claim had originally been raised in the book Amelia Earhart Lives (1970) by author Joe Klaas, based on the research of Major Joseph Gervais. Irene Bolam, who had been a banker in New York during the 1940s, denied being Earhart, filed a lawsuit requesting $1.5 million in damages and submitted a lengthy affidavit in which she rebutted the claims. The book's publisher, McGraw-Hill, withdrew the book from the market shortly after it was released and court records indicate that the company reached an out-of-court settlement with her. Subsequently, Bolam's personal life history was thoroughly documented by researchers, eliminating any possibility that she was Earhart. Kevin Richlin, a professional criminal forensic expert hired by National Geographic, studied photographs of both women and cited many measurable facial differences.

Views of those close to Earhart
Earhart's stepson, George Palmer Putnam Jr. was quoted as saying he believed "the plane just ran out of gas", but also expressed support for TIGHAR's Gardner Island theory. Bram Kleppner expressed his support for the possible finding of the plane on the ocean floor in 2024.