Talk:2015 Venezuelan parliamentary election

Latest 2015 polls
Is this the same as the other July poll that you placed already?-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 04:07, 15 August 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, that's the same. But this article doesn't cite the likely voters' numbers. --yeah_93 (talk) 04:37, 15 August 2015 (UTC)
 * Ok, thanks for checking. If you can find more polls I will try to make a graph.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 07:07, 15 August 2015 (UTC)
 * There seems to be more on the spanish version of this page. Øln (talk) 08:08, 15 August 2015 (UTC)
 * I will take a look but I will have to be careful since the Venezuelan government uses fake polls occasionally.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 08:25, 15 August 2015 (UTC)
 * I took a look and most of it looks good, though some polls had to be averaged because there were more than one by an organization in one month. Thank you.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 09:17, 15 August 2015 (UTC)

Missing polls
Here is one from Datanalisis stating that in March according to Datanalisis, "opposition candidates have 59.6% of the voting intentions in parliamentary" while it is "22.5% for government candidates". I know there are missing polls from the Spanish article but are there more missing polls? This one wasn't shown in both articles. We can do Google searches such as "encuestas para elecciones parlamentarias venezuela" or such for each month just to get a better picture of the polls.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 02:13, 22 August 2015 (UTC)


 * Here is the Spanish article.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 02:19, 22 August 2015 (UTC)
 * I try to include every poll I find. If you find more, you could include them. --yeah_93 (talk) 05:20, 23 August 2015 (UTC)


 * I will try to add some from the Spanish article but there are a lot. If you could, make some corrections if needed.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 14:01, 29 August 2015 (UTC)
 * God that ICS poll... "sample of 500 per state". That's just wonderful, I'm sure you'll obtain the great results polling the same amount of people from places like Carabobo (pop. 2.4 mil) and Barinas (pop. less than 1mil). Jesus. --yeah_93 (talk) 04:06, 30 August 2015 (UTC)


 * ICS is kind of a joke. The government has been using their own polling organizations for awhile now. By the way, thank you for that Hinterlaces poll, I will fix that graph now.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 04:21, 31 August 2015 (UTC)

There is a new Hercón poll. It includes a breakdown per state, but it doesn't include the national average, so I can't include it in the chart. http://barometropolitico.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/6-Analisis-integral-Hercon-Agosto-2015-1.pdf --yeah_93 (talk) 00:55, 2 September 2015 (UTC)
 * Can you just average each state or would that be OR of some sort?-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 00:35, 3 September 2015 (UTC)
 * No. We don't know the base for each state. --yeah_93 (talk) 01:13, 3 September 2015 (UTC)

Could you check the source I used and the data I put in? Just want to make sure were both on the same page.-- ZiaLater  ( talk  ) 06:27, 16 September 2015 (UTC)
 * I'll take a look when I can. --yeah_93 (talk) 00:05, 18 September 2015 (UTC)

Popular Vote
How about some data showing the popular vote, since it's often at such odds with seat counts in these plurality/partial-plurality systems? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Chriswiltse (talk • contribs) 23:06, 7 December 2015 (UTC)
 * AFAIK the figures aren't available yet. The CNE website is not being updated very frequently... Number   5  7  23:12, 7 December 2015 (UTC)

Indigenous members
Some editors have repeatedly upped the MUD seat total to 112 based on the claim that the indigenous members are MUD members, which is backed up by this. However, several other sources I have seen (e.g. this or this) state that they are supporters of or aligned with the MUD, which suggests they are not actually members. Can anyone clarify this? The CNE website does not list the party affiliation of the indigenous winners. Number  5  7  15:39, 10 December 2015 (UTC)
 * The CNE does identify their party affiliation. It's just that those parties aren't exactly part of the other national parties since they have to run on indigenous tickets. The 3 indigenous deputies elected belong to parties backed by the MUD, while the ones backed by the PSUV lost. They aren't official members of the MUD, but since they are their allies, their seats are added to the MUD's total. --yeah_93 (talk) 15:54, 10 December 2015 (UTC)
 * If they are not MUD members, they shouldn't be included in the total (even if the parties they are members of support the MUD). In the UK we have a similar situation with the Northern Irish parties UUP and the SDLP, who align themselves with the Conservatives and Labour respectively, but are not included in their seat totals.
 * Where are the parties identified? I only see candidate names. Number   5  7  16:07, 10 December 2015 (UTC)
 * Click on the candidate's name and the parties should show up. Conive, Parlinve, Miazulia are some of the names. But yeah, I think it's just a technicality. They may not be elected as part of the MUD per se, but they'll vote with them, giving them the numbers needed for the supermajority; which, in the end, is what matters to the opposition. I don't think it matters that much which numbers we put here. Let's just leave it how the CNE put it (109 MUD, 55 PSUV) and leave it at that. Whatever.--yeah_93 (talk) 16:25, 10 December 2015 (UTC)
 * Agreed, and make sure that the data presented is consistent between the infobox and the table. Maswimelleu (talk) 16:58, 10 December 2015 (UTC)

Polls section, after the election
Now that the election is over and we have the results, does it still make sense to keep the polls there? Hamsterlopithecus (talk) 19:52, 12 December 2015 (UTC)

PSUV or GPP
I have reverted the edits to the results table for the nth time for two main reasons: In order for GPP to go into the results table we need (a) reliable sources stating that the results are for the GPP as a whole, not just the PSUV, and (b) the rest of the article to be amended.
 * 1) The CNE sources quite clearly say PSUV rather than GPP in detailing the results
 * 2) The entire article refers only to the PSUV (with the exception of a detail in the infobox), and listing GPP in the results table is undoubtedly confusing to the reader.

Please discuss rather than continue reverting. Thanks, Number   5  7  14:56, 23 December 2015 (UTC)


 * Several sources from here are attributing 52 seats to the PSUV, and 55 to the GPP in total. 2 of the remaining seats are Communist, one is from Republican Vanguard. See this segment of the article on the Spanish article here. Here's a graphic showing the results with MUD and GPP broken down into their constituent parties. Furthermore, consider a quote from this article. I machine translated it for convinience. It says: "On this occasion the sum opposition 7,707,422 votes which equates to 56.2 % of the votes obtained 112 deputies ( 67 % ), while the Great Patriotic Pole with 5,599,025 votes representing 40.8 % of the total vote valid in the country issued 32.93 % of the total seats allocated in parliamentary elections remains with 55 deputies." Maswimelleu (talk) 15:40, 23 December 2015 (UTC)


 * Thanks. That was actually going to be my second question – where are the current figures sourced from. Those figures you quote are not the same ones we have in the table. The breakdown of seats is very helpful though. Number   5  7  15:48, 23 December 2015 (UTC)


 * They may be results before a few remaining votes were counted. The infobox on the Spanish article probably has the most reliable figures, haven't checked their source for that one yet. I propose that we change most references to the PSUV on the article to GPP and work with that. The figures need to be standardised to this new set of sources. I'm sure either of us can do this fairly quickly, although I think the results table should be set up to display the member parties of each alliance underneath an alliance total. I have no idea how best to do that, the most relevant example I can think of is how the results for the constituent parties of Podemos are set out in the results table for the 2015 Spanish General Election. Maswimelleu (talk) 15:51, 23 December 2015 (UTC)


 * Hi. Those results are from a CNE bulletin the CNE gave to the parties. They were sent on election date, when all the votes hadn't been counted. I summed the results myself after they were updated on the CNE page (the sum of all the list votes by state) and those are the numbers I put here in the page. --yeah_93 (talk) 16:03, 23 December 2015 (UTC)


 * The issue here is that the Venezuelan election system could create some confusion. The PSUV totals that the CNE published in their site could be only the votes that people gave explicitly to that party (clicking the card with the PSUV party logo on the electronic ballot), but you can also have to notice that the same candidates had the support from a number of smaller parties (including the Communist Party [PCV], Fatherland for All [PPT], etc.) that had their own party logos on the ballot. Given that case, a candidate (or list of candidates) could receive some "PSUV votes", "PCV votes", "PPT votes", that were all counted as a total (indeed, in the CNE results webpage you could see the total of a candidate, and when you click on the candidate name the site displays the results by the party that voters clicked when they voted). Therefore, there's no clarity if the total results given are only for the "PSUV votes", the total of votes of the parties that support the same candidates (the GPP itself), or none of the above. I hope that this explanation could clarify the issue. Regards. --Sfs90 (talk) 18:19, 24 December 2015 (UTC)


 * Calling Number 57, I could use your second opinion on the table - it seems to look odd on my second browser, but fine on the first. It needs aligning to work correctly. Maswimelleu (talk) 19:16, 24 December 2015 (UTC)
 * I've fixed it. The colour column was 10px wide, plus another 1px for the cell wall, so you need to ensure that the width of the header row is 10+1+party column width.
 * Are vote totals available for the individual parties, or just seats. Number   5  7  19:34, 26 December 2015 (UTC)


 * As far as I know, and looking at the CNE results website, there's no nationwide party totals available (only the total of seats awarded), but a way to know the number of voters that clicked each party card on the ballot, is to add their totals by state (Miranda, Capital, Monagas, etc...). In example, if a candidate (in this case one of the GPP) receive in some state 5000 PSUV votes, 100 PCV votes, 50 PPT votes (these results displays when you clicked over the candidate name, because initially displays only the total of votes from all the parties that support their candidacy; after you clicked the name displays the totals by party card); and in other state these parties obtain other number of votes, you can add each one to their respective party, and there you could have the totals (only by an own method, because it looks that the CNE doesn't bother to calculate the totals as you [and everyone here, including me] is asking). But you can also have to notice that this method applies only to the "list vote" ("voto de lista" in Spanish), because the other part (the "circuit vote") doesn't represent clearly the preferences, as one voter could make more than 1 preference on the ballot. I hope that this information could clarify some aspects. --Sfs90 (talk) 01:20, 27 December 2015 (UTC)
 * Thanks. South American countries seem to love complex voting systems... Number   5  7  14:20, 27 December 2015 (UTC)
 * Hmmm, as far as the opposition parties go, there isn't a popular vote tally for each one of them since there was only the MUD ticket. For the GPP, it could be done since it was split into several tickets, though it would be extremely tedious. I'll probably put the results by state for the big coalitions in a table sometime these weeks. --yeah_93 (talk) 00:35, 29 December 2015 (UTC)

Full results
Having found a site that had partially compiled, I've done a full job and it matches it with their figures and the widely published ones. While there is a total for the GPP (5,625,248) in the party-list vote, it's a bit awkward to show in the results table as there were six parties that ran with the GPP in some states but not in others. The votes that were part of the GPP are shown in red below.

An addendum to the previous discussion, all seats were formally won by either the MUD or PSUV – no minor parties won seats. I guess the issue discussed above is that in some cases the PSUV candidate was actually a member of another party. However, from the CNE's perspective, they were all PSUV. Perhaps this can be explained in the text. Cheers, Number   5  7  14:54, 2 October 2021 (UTC)