Talk:Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework

Severity
We are using Chinese data from Feb 2020? Surely there is a lot more data available since then, and I am fairly sure it isn't as severe as was initially estimated.

You're welcome to find it! As far as I can tell the CDC never published their official PSAF ratings. The closest I found so far are the "Current Best Estimate" values in the Pandemic Planning Scenarios. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box1 Their R0 of 2.5 is solidly a 5 for transmissibility. For severity they have an infection fatality ratio, which should have a larger denominator and therefore be smaller than the case fatality ratio that the architects of the PSAF used. Their IFR is segmented by age group, but it wouldn't be that hard to turn it back into a weighted average using some census data. Eyeballing the weighted average and the IFR vs. CFR difference, my guess is it'd be a 4ish for clinical severity. That's at the low end of the February 2020 estimate, but that's still the worst pandemic since 1918 on the scale.

I'd be curious for someone to FOIA CDC to see if they actually did a PSAF rating for their own planning. --Error9312 (talk) 02:05, 8 June 2021 (UTC)

PSAF Ratings for Variants
Another author had copied some data about variants over from the Variants of SARS-CoV-2 page. I removed it and replaced it with a pointer to the other page. My main concern was that after just 6 weeks the table on this page was already out of date because the data in the table is being maintained on the other page, not here. It also bothered me the slightest bit that the PSAF scaled transmissiblity measures for the variants were the Wikipedia author's values, not the sources' values. Yes, I realize it was a no-brainer since they were only filled in when the transmissibilty was higher than the Wuhan strain, which had already been rated at the highest value.

Feel free to undo my second edit from today if you strongly disagree and think the data should also appear on this page. Keep my first edit, though, because before I deleted the table I fixed some of the citations inside it. My second edit today also contains a new CDC source in the "COVID-19 pandemic" section that's worth salvaging if you undo it. --Error9312 (talk) 02:51, 8 June 2021 (UTC)

COVID-19 pandemic severity
The data in this section is very stale and needs updating 98.118.62.140 (talk) 18:28, 4 October 2021 (UTC)