Talk:Recession

Suspect
I thought a recession was two consecutive quarters not “a couple of months” 2600:6C40:1900:5B78:8CD7:8FEF:FC7A:109B (talk) 17:39, 23 August 2022 (UTC)
 * Indeed the article lead says "two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real gross domestic product (real GDP) is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession". Where did you get "couple of months" from? The article does not have that text. – wbm1058 (talk) 16:54, 25 August 2022 (UTC)
 * A quote from the introduction: "In the United States, a recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months" – 'Significantly' and 'lasting more than a few months'. Probably wise economists have written much about the meaning of these words to civilize the American people that live in the middle of poor information, that is, advertisements. 17:34, 7 October 2022 (UTC) Jari Rauma (talk) 17:34, 7 October 2022 (UTC)
 * why is NBER the authoritative source? Foxhoundz (talk) 21:09, 14 May 2023 (UTC)

Implementing the RFC outcome.
It doesn't seem like the RFC outcome was ever implemented, so I've done so. By my reading the last stable version of the lead was this one, from July; there were a few edits after that that were comparatively minor, but overall if you look at the history it's clear that that version was stable for an extended period of time, with few edits for months and no really serious ones for years; in particular, this was the key contested addition, which was reverted immediately and then revert-warred back in. After that point people started editing the lead aggressively and it destabilized into multiple revert-wars, which continued unabated for months on end, so no version after that can reasonably be called stable. If people think that there are changes since then that were uncontroversial or had a clear consensus, we should probably demonstrate that on talk per the above RFC before re-implementing them. --Aquillion (talk) 18:38, 7 October 2022 (UTC)


 * Looks good, long overdue, thanks. Andre🚐 20:23, 7 October 2022 (UTC)

Definition
Before starting this, I understand that the article states the 2 quarter definition, but I believe there should be a sentence in the lead describing the conventional and generally accepted of recession. As of March 23 20:00 UTC, the 2nd paragraph of the lead is

In the United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.

I propose this be changed to

In the United States, a recession is generally defined as "two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation adjusted) GDP. " Other groups such as the NBER define it as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.

There is no official definition of a recession. There is a pseudo-official definition by the NBER and then there is the generally accepted technical definition used by economists and normal people alike since the 60's. I would also like to note that every time since 1948 when the US has had 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, a recession has been called. So even though it is not an official NBER definition, it is commonly used in practice.

Here are some of my sources

Investopedia
 * "A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth mean recession"

money.usnews
 * "Though the U.S. has met one common definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth"

money.usnews
 * "As the NBER definition of a recession is somewhat vague, economists often consider at least two consecutive quarters of declining U.S. GDP as a simple indicator of a recession."

IMF
 * "Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product"

Oxford Reference
 * "A recession is often defined as real GDP falling for two successive quarters"

Oxford languages per Google
 * "a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters."

Politico
 * "I’m sorry to report that the conditions are ripe for a slide in gross domestic product growth that lasts at least two quarters, the technical definition of recession."

Collins Finance definition
 * "A recession is a decline in economic activity that lasts for two quarters or a year."

If any admin wants to remove my post as off-topic per the page notice, Yes, I know the article already says the 2 quarters definition, I am proposing it be added to the lead. PalauanReich (talk) 13:23, 27 March 2023 (UTC)


 * The definition in the current lead, as it has remained for years, was reaffirmed by a July/August 2022 RFC, which was quite a discussion that can be found in the Talk archives. soibangla (talk) 14:16, 27 March 2023 (UTC)

"a fall in GDP for two consecutive quarters"
is not a global definition and should be removed from its current position at the top of the lead soibangla (talk) 15:59, 15 August 2023 (UTC)


 * I agree, I reverted. The lead has been the subject of extensive discussion on this talk page, including RFCs. We need to respect the outcomes of those discussions. MrOllie (talk) 16:21, 15 August 2023 (UTC)
 * It's the global/scholar definition. Same everywhere.
 * If you change it, you may delete the "historical" part. 2A01:CB00:118C:7600:C98B:AC57:F341:3904 (talk) 09:55, 1 December 2023 (UTC)

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