Talk:UEFA Euro 2012 qualifying Group B

Proof that if Andorra draw then they're out.
There's over 2 months until the next matchday so this will probably come in handy several times.

This is a general mathematical proof, allocating all remaining points as best as possible. You can ignore specific match results as the proof doesn't need them.

After Andorra draw with Slovakia, the table would look like this:

Now with the best case scenario, Andorra win all their games. I'm keeping them bottom of the following table for simplicity:

In order for Andorra to have a chance of winning the group, ALL other teams have to be kept below 14pts.

Slovakia, Russia, Ireland, and Armenia all play each other once. That's 6 matches, and the absolute minimum of points that therefore HAVE to be distributed amongst these 4 teams is 12pts. Ignoring specific match combinations, and therefore giving Andorra the best possible chance, we can distribute them as follows:

Any 3 of those 4 teams will be on 13 points, with the remaining one on 12pts (which happens to be Armenia in this example). Macedonia play each of those teams, and will HAVE to defeat the teams on 13pts in order to stop them getting 14 or more, and being out of Andorra's reach:

The one remaining match is between the team with 12 points, and Macedonia. It is impossible for this match to be settled without one of those teams getting 14 or more points, meaning that Andorra cannot win the group.

At each stage of this proof, I have given Andorra the best possible chance and given them the best outcomes. Still, it is impossible for them to finish on top of the group if they should draw against Slovakia. Aheyfromhome (talk) 17:46, 28 March 2011 (UTC)


 * To the anonymous user(s) who insist on changing it, and in case the tables above might for some reason be confusing to you, here it is in words. This is why Andorra cannot draw with Slovakia in their next match and still win the group:


 * If Andorra and Slovakia draw, then Andorra win their 4 remaining matches, Andorra finish w/13 pts. The draw gives Slovakia 11, so they cannot win any more.


 * So, in the other matches to be played,
 * If Russia beat Slovakia, Russia have 13 so they must lose to Ireland, Armenia, Macedonia.
 * Now Ireland have 13, so they must lose their remaining matches, including Slovakia, which would give Slovakia 14 pts.


 * So, we now that neither Slovakia nor Russia could win and Andorra still win the group. So, Russia and Slovakia MUST draw, which gives Slovakia 12 and Russia 11.
 * Then, if Ireland beat Slovakia, now Ireland have 13 so they must lose the rest, but they still play Russia and a win gives Russia 14.


 * So, Ireland and Slovakia MUST draw, leaving Slovakia 13 and Ireland 11
 * Slovakia MUST lose to Armenia and Macedonia, now Armenia have 11, Macedonia 7
 * Armenia and Ireland MUST draw, now both have 12 pts
 * Russia v Ireland (must be a draw), now Ireland have 13 pts
 * Ireland v Macedonia (Macedonia must win)
 * Russia v Armenia (must be a draw), now both have 13
 * Now Russia and Armenia both must lose to Macedonia, but 2 more wins gives Macedonia 16


 * Please, if you think there is any possible scenario in which Andorra could draw with Slovakia and still win the group, by all means enlighten us. Otherwise stop making inaccurate edits. LarryJeff (talk) 16:12, 30 March 2011 (UTC)

standings
just curious why the standings do not agree with what the three way tie-breaker table shows. is it simply because UEFA lists the standings that way? seems peculiar.18abruce (talk) 23:28, 4 June 2011 (UTC)

Republic of Ireland are NOT 3rd
According to UEFA, this is how the table is supposed to be (I'm leaving out Macedonia and Andorra):

1. Rep Ireland W:4 D:1 L:1 GF:11 GA:6 GD: 5 PTS: 13

2. Russia W:4 D:1 L:1 GF:9 GA:4 GD: 5 PTS: 13

3. Slovakia W:4 D:1 L:1 GF:6 GA:4 GD:2 PTS: 13

4. Armenia W:2 D:2 L:2 GF:10 GA:7 GD:3 PTS: 8

Not the one we have! It seems UEFA is rather ranking teams by goals scored rather than Goal Difference of head-to-head record.

Source: http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/standings/round=15171/group=700958/index.html GuyWithoutAUsername (talk) 19:57, 5 June 2011 (UTC)
 * actually, uefa listing it incorrectly, is not reason to have it wrong here. Their own rules, as described in the regulations (section 7.04)http://www.uefa.com/multimediafiles/download/competitions/euro/91/87/57/918757_download.pdf clearly indicate that if it ended now, Ireland would in fact be 3rd.  Why they have the tie-breakers wrong in many of the groups is puzzling. 18abruce (talk) 23:14, 5 June 2011 (UTC)
 * Well they specifically write: Tiebreakers are only uses after completion of the groups. As such they don't apply them yet. -Koppapa (talk) 17:40, 6 June 2011 (UTC)
 * where does that quote come from? I am being facitious of course, there is no such quote.  Read section 7.04 again and you will see that it is ambiguous, they do not say in the provisions anywhere what the correct procedure is when the groups are incomplete.  In fact, take a look here and you will see that what is happening this year is unusual, and mistaken---http://web.archive.org/web/20070707002218/http://www.uefa.com/competitions/euro/standings/round=2241/group=2630.html18abruce (talk) 18:15, 8 June 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes it is true they don't say how to rank teams, when groups are ongoing. So how can they do it wrong? :) It doesn't matter anyway. -Koppapa (talk) 18:48, 9 June 2011 (UTC)

Macedonia
If Macedonia loses vs Russia, they can max get 14 points, with Russia already at 14, and games between Rus-Svk, Rus-Irl and Irl-Svk yet to be counted. No matter how things end up in those 3 matches, Macedonia gets eliminated.

If Macedonia draws Russia, they get eliminated too:


 * Rus 13->14
 * Svk 13
 * Irl 13
 * Arm 8
 * Mac 4->5
 * And 0

The three games between Russia, Slovakia and Irland means that at least one team ends up at 15 points or more, and the only way for the runner-up team not to beat 14 points is for Russia to defeat the other two teams, while Slovakia-Irland ends in a draw. This also requires Armenia to beat Slovakia and Ireland, causing a four-way tie. Even in that scenario, Macedonia gets eliminated, because they lose the tie. (Which would be Irl 11p, Arm 10p, Mac 7p, Svk 5p.) If Macedonia wins, they can still win the group, but only if Ireland-Slovakia ends in a draw. That way Rus-Irl, Rus-Svk and Svk-Irl can all end in draws, leading to Macedonia winning with 16 points ahead of Rus, Svk and Irl at 15. (Assuming all remaining games go Macedonia's way.)

If Ireland or Slovakia win their game, Macedonia can still qualify but not win the group.
 * Rus 13
 * Svk 13
 * Irl 13
 * Arm 8
 * Mac 4 (max points 16)
 * And 0

If either Svk or Irl win, they reach 16 points and need to lose all remaining games. Them losing their game vs Russia leads to Russia reaching 16 points, meaning they need to lose vs the other team of Svk and Irl to remain below 17 points. This leads to a four-way tie with Russia, Slovakia, Ireland and Macedonia all at 16 points. Macedonia would lose this four way tie though. (The results would be Irl/Svk 10p, Rus 9p, Mac 6p.) Lejman (talk) 03:56, 6 June 2011 (UTC)

Armenia
Armenia can't become unable to win the group. Even if they lose vs Andorra, Russia defeat Macedonia and Ireland defeat Slovakia, a four way tie where Russia, Slovakia, Ireland and Armenia all end up at 17 points can still occur, leading to Armenia winning the group on better head-to-head record.Lejman (talk) 04:26, 6 June 2011 (UTC)