User:Tnlu/The Mekong River And the Development of China's Hydropower

CHINESE DAMS ON THE MEKONG RIVER
Hydroelectricity is currently China's primary source of renewable energy. Environmental pollution and insufficient reservoirs for fossil fuels have been increasingly severe problems in China since 2000. In 2014, President Xi announced that the country would commit to curbing air pollution, pledging to peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. To achieve this goal while maintaining its energy independence, China has been rushing to construct numerous mega-dams, gradually switching to hydropower as the primary source of renewable energy. One of China's plans to sustain its ever-increasing energy needs was to make the best use of its geopolitical advantages of the Mekong River. China has successfully constructed and put into operation eleven giant dams along the upper basin of the Mekong, impounding an amount of water equivalent to that of the Chesapeake Bay. With another eleven dams either planned or under construction, China is causing erratic changes in water levels of the lower-basin regions, the Southeast Asian countries.

Even though China has received many recognitions for its investment in renewable energy, its dam construction creates devastating effects on the Mekong delta, putting millions of lives on the line, and raising criticism worldwide on the ethics of these constructions. More than simple applications of scientific knowledge, there is a greater demand for China to act in a morally responsible way.

China's Need for Hydropower
In his announcement to the United Nations in 2020, China's President Xi Jinping committed his country to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Nevertheless, the country official made no change to China's goal for building and expansion. Since the 1950s, China has faced an increasing need for energy to sustain the country’s ambitious plan for development. For example, in China’s Fourteenth Plan for the years 2021-2021, the country announced a continuing expansion of urbanization and the development of more city clusters. As a result, China is turning to hydropower as the primary energy source for the future. The country has constructed nearly 22,000 dams to meet this demand, including the world’s largest dam: the Three Gorges Dam. The CCP government is scheming to weaponize water from the Mekong River, the primary water source of many Southeast Asian countries such as Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, to accelerate its economic expansion rate at the cost of the neighboring nations.

Dam Constructions
The construction of dams is seen as a country’s commitment to environmental protection and sustainable development. However, large dams are not considered environmentally friendly. The construction and operation of a dam contribute a significant amount of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere every year. Additionally, dam development brings about severe social consequences. Dam construction requires a large area for reservoir flooding, forcing the relocation of people living in the surrounding area. The relocation usually results in people having to live farther away from their sources of livelihood, making it neither environmentally nor financially beneficial in the long run. According to Jon Honea, an ecosystem scientist in the Pacific Northwest, dams’ great costs include a massive reduction in migratory fish and even extinction, high costs of maintenance, and disastrous effects if ruptured.

Natural History of the Mekong River
The Mekong River is the twelfth longest river in the world and the third-longest river in Asia. Its estimated length is 4909km, running through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Draining an area of 795,000 km², the Mekong is the most biodiverse of any river in the world. The river drains an area of 795,000 km² and boasts its name as one of the second most biodiverse of any river in the world.

Geopolitics
The Mekong originates in the Tibet plateau, flowing through this autonomous region to other cities in Southeast China. The river then meets the China-Myanmar border, where it continues to flow along the border until it arrives at the border of China, Myanmar, and Laos. From this tri-point, the river defines the dividing line between Myanmar and Laos until it reaches the Golden Triangle, the meeting point of Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar. The Mekong continues to flow along the border of Laos-Thai until it takes a Southward turn to cross through Cambodia. This is the beginning of the complex Mekong Delta. The Mekong enters Vietnam from the east, branching into the Tiền River, the Mỹ Tho River, the Ba Lai River, the Hàm Luông River, and the Cổ Chiên River.


 * Upper basin: given its more elevated location, the part of the Mekong River in China is considered the upper basin, making up 24% of the total area of the river and 15-20% of the water flows from the river.
 * Lower Basin: the lower region of the Mekong includes Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam

Support Livelihood
The Mekong River provides the primary source of food and income for more than 60 million:


 * Wild capture and agricultural fisheries are the primary sources of food and income for the people living in the lower region of the basin, which exceeded 60 million in 2010.
 * Aquatic captures make up 47-80% of proteins in the diet of people living along the Mekong Delta.
 * The flood plains of the Mekong delta provide sandy and saline soils for crops such as glutinous rice, maize, cassava, and wet rice.

According to the Mekong River Commission's full report in 2010, the population of the Lower Basin Area includes 5.2 million people in Laos, 23.1 million in Thailand, 13 million in Cambodia, and 18.7 million in Vietnam. This population solely relies on water and water-related resources for their living. The high degree of the population depending on water-related occupations implies a much higher vulnerability of this population to water availability and sediment quality.

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Biodiversity ===== The river spans 200 million acres, equivalent to the size of the United States Texas and Arkansas in combination. The Mekong boasted itself to be the second most biodiverse per ha of any river in the world. According to the World Wildlife organization, the river is irreplaceably rich. The Greater Mekong is the home to more than 1,200 bird species, 800 species of reptiles and amphibians, 430 mammals, and 20,000 species of plants. Running through several countries of Southeast Asia, the river provides diverse habitats for many categories of biological species. Since 1997, more than 1300 new species have been identified and categorized, proving the river’s diversity in habitats. The forest landscape by the river flow is the largest combined tiger habitat. Twenty-five percent of global freshwater wild-catch and millions of livelihoods are provided by the Mekong.

China's Hydropower Dams Activities
According to the Stimson’s Center, since China began the construction of a series of dams on the Mekong, there has been an observable correlation between major droughts and the operation of every new dam. For example, following the completion of the Nuozhadu Dam in 2012, the wet season of the Mekong Delta received a significantly lower amount of water flow in comparison to that of the previous year. In 2019, whereas the lower-basin nations experienced a major drought, the upper basin in China recorded an average to high snowmelt and rainfall. Of the ten major droughts recorded in the lower basin of the Mekong, eight had happened after China’s construction of the first dam, the Wunonglong, in 1992. Since 1992, China has impounded increasing amounts of water during the supposed-to-be wet season for the lower basin regions.

Wet seasons are the times when farmers would start rice cultivation, a unique crop that makes up most of the Mekong Delta’s main agricultural product. It requires consistent irrigation throughout the growing season. Moisture is also essential for other popular crops in Southeast Asia such as corn plants and mango. Due to dams’ water impounding that changes the water flow, planting soil downstream from China and downstream of the Mekong was not only dried up but also faced with salt intrusion due to tidal amplification as a result of increasing sea level.

Laos' Mekong Dams: of China, by China, for China
According to the Diplomat report, 81% of all overseas Chinese-owned dams are currently in Laos. China Southern Power Grid Co, a state-owned and CCP-ruled corporation, is the main conductor of Laos’ nation power projects, especially its hydropower dam projects on the Mekong. In the middle of the drought in 2019, Laos approved and pushed forward four dam projects with the help of this corporation from China. For Laos, a lower-income country, electricity generation and selling to other countries is a good way to improve its national economy. Laos’ minister of the Deputy Energy and Mines, Sinava Souphanouvong, claimed that Laos will be constructing 100 dams across the country by 2030, estimated to yield 9,972 megawatts of electricity. Even though Lao’s gross domestic product was $18 Billion, the total accumulated cost of the five dams surrounding Xayaburi was $12.5 billion. This cost is currently funded by the Chinese state bank loans, further intensifying Lao’s debt to China. This cooperation for construction is undoubtedly for the sake of business financial gains. According to the US-based Stimson Center, Laos’ dams have been working for China to hoard more water. In the Mekong River Commission’s full report for 2020, the rainfall levels decreased by one or fourth in comparison to that of 2018 and decreased by one-third in comparison to that of 2020.

China's Power Thirst for the Belt Road Initiative (BRI)
There is an observable juxtaposition between China’s plans that demands more energy and Laos’ expansion of hydropower exploitation. In its pursuit of structural reforms, China aims to create new markets, connect trading routes, increase exports of Chinese products to neighboring countries, and improve China’s infrastructure investment overseas. The Chinese Communist government pushed forward the initiative of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is estimated to cost 900 billion dollars, connecting 140 countries and encompassing the six central economic regions surrounding this country: Mongolia and Russia; Eurasian countries; Central and West Asia; Pakistan; other countries of the Indian sub-continent; and Indochina. The construction of Chinese dams in Laos is simply for producing and exporting electricity to the border regions in China. Moreover, electricity supply is an essential instrument for the completion of the BRI in the near future and the development of China’s border regions of Yunnan, a province bordering Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam, in the long run. In the Asian Development Bank report, Laos planned on a long-term 500 kV transmission grid connecting to all of its neighbors, including China. The transmission to China will be entering through the Yunnan province. In the CCP’s twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for the years 2011-2015, China is building connective infrastructure such as high-speed rail to connect Kunming, the capital of Yunnan, to Southeast Asia, essentially making Yunnan a trading center. And, only through the availability of electricity would this plan be feasible. Additionally, the development of electricity would also help the government to control many minorities and ethnic groups living in Yunnan. The CCP government has been known for the implementation of oppressive policies against Chinese minorities and ethnic groups by forced migration, land acquisition, assimilation through language banning, and other irrational policies in the name of reservation. Therefore, the generation of electricity through nearby Laos dams would serve many of the Chinese’ s government schemes, fitting together Yunnan, Laos’ dams, and the BRI.

Devastating Effects of Chinese Dams
China's dams turned off the water tap during the wet season and released more water during the dry season, significantly altering the usual flows of water to the lower basin regions, causing severe drought, unexpected floods, the potential for increasing tropical infectious disease, and destruction of aquatic habitats. Eleven mega-dams operate in a coordinated fashion that blocks the water-flow downstream to allow China to prepare for the next dry season. From 1992 to 2019, China's Mekong dams were recorded to store consistently increasing reservoirs of water during the wet season. The life cycles of migratory fishes and birds were also severely impacted when the natural seasonal fluctuations were interrupted. Other disruptions include:


 * Destruction of living habitats for biological species: the destruction of living habitats (including food depletion, water quality, and nutrient availability). It is one of the leading causes of the extinction of Irrawaddy Dolphins on the Mekong.
 * Timber extraction and permanent cultivation: the change in water level creates more land exposure with erratic saline level, encouraging deforestation for more "livable land." As there is a less agricultural activity, people would also have to timber lodging as the most available natural source of income, especially in the Greater Mekong.
 * Shifting agriculture: reduced soil moisture curtails crops; reduced water availability and quality cause the reduction of livestock and water aquatic agricultural productivity.

Drought in the Lower Mekong Basin

 * In 2016, the Mekong Delta went through the worst devastating drought that had ever been recorded.
 * A mega drought that leads hundreds of million losses in capital that hit almost every single farming family of the Mekong delta
 * Salinity level in water exceeded 5 grams per liter, causing a total loss to many agricultural crops such as rice, durian, and mangosteen
 * In 2019, during the six months that the portion of the Mekong River in China received either high or average precipitation levels, the downstream regions went through another severe and unexpected drought in history. According to the Mekong River Commission, the monsoon rains arrived two weeks later and departed three weeks earlier than expected in the Lower Mekong Basin. This was the year that the Nuozhadu dam started its operation at full capacity in China.
 * 17 provinces along the Mekong downstream declared emergency drought
 * 94,000 hectares of rice fields were affected

On average, a drought results in a 56% reduction in the Rice crop, which translates to a 12% of income drop for all households. For the lowest quartile of household income, this is equivalent to 31% of average household income.

Sudden flood events

 * In 2002, 2012-2013, and 2014, the Mekong Delta recorded a surprisingly high water level during the dry season.
 * Water release without prior notice caused severe problems for people in the lower Mekong basin. Damages include tremendous damage to properties and destruction to livestock, crops, and agricultural products.
 * Too many dams upstream in the higher region of the Mekong impounded and released water greedily without schedule causing smaller dams in the lower regions to work very inefficiently.

Impacts on people's lives
In the Mekong River Delta Full Report in 2010, it is predicted that almost one in every six households had members who had changed their occupations to non-water-related livelihoods. However, there are significant disparities in the distribution and degree of severity of these impacts:

Vietnam

 * In 2016, the majority of rice crops were destroyed, which was $670 million in capital, causing a difficult year for 2 million farmers of the region.
 * 33,000 ha of rice crops were destroyed
 * 77,000 households in the region were lack of water
 * In 2019, the population of the Mekong delta in Vietnam experienced food insecurity, loss of income, and hygiene-related diseases due to low rainfall.
 * 10,000 ha of rice crops were affected by drought and saltwater intrusion, causing a massive drop in rice production as a result of red flows in the Mekong mainstream.

Thailand

 * In December 2013, the sudden release of water from upstream dams led to a 10-day flood in Chiang Rai without prior notification.
 * Two people were killed, one was injured, 20 houses were destroyed, roads and bridges were damaged, and 8,000 hectares of crops were affected.
 * In the 2016 mega drought, Thailand lost one billion dollars in capital.
 * In 2019, drought and saltwater intrusion caused a massive drop in rice production.
 * Sugar, one of the country's major export products, dropped by almost 30 percent, a 9-year low.

Cambodia

 * The duration of wet seasons is getting shorter every year, delaying the planting season of rice crops.
 * The yield of fishing has dropped deeply due to the low volume of floodwater in Tonle Sap Great Lake, even during the wet season.
 * According to the Electricity Authority of Cambodia, the country's hydropower was able to produce only 4,000 GWh in 2019, in comparison to that of 2018 was 9,000 GWh.

Water Quality
According to the report by Bryan Eyler of the Stimson Center in 2019, part of the Mekong River in Laos was turning emerald blue, an unnaturally clear color. In an RNA interview, Chaowalit Withayanont, a fisheries expert in Laos, described the water as being so clean that it could reflect the color of the sky. According to the Mekong River Commission (MRC), this is a sign of the depletion of sediment in the water. It was predicted that sediments in the Mekong won't be depleted until 2040. This is an alarming sign that the problem is happening much earlier than expected.

Future Threats
Dams' construction without careful analysis of the geography may trigger severe earthquakes. In the past, people around the world have observed a linkage between earthquakes and dam constructions. For example, one of the largest earthquakes caused by dam construction was observed at Orville Dam, in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, California. Scientists believed that the water reservoir had increased the stress on and intensified the activity of an active fault line. There was a strong correlation between the onset of earthquakes and the reservoir's water supply. Up until this point, there is no official analysis report published by the Chinese government that provides sufficient proof of the safety of the Mekong dams. The rapid dam construction that had been conducted spontaneously without careful analysis of the geography could potentially trigger a series of earthquakes in the future once all dams are operating at full capacity.

The biodiversity of the Mekong River is also threatened as the dams are altering water patterns, sucking up water from some habitats while flooding some others. The change in water flow will also significantly alter the weather patterns, endangering animals and plants living on the Mekong, especially the biological species in the lower basin.

The southernmost province of Vietnam and the Mekong River Delta, Ca Mau, is at significant risk of submersion. It is predicted that the area will be 43% under submersion by 2030 and 76% under submersion by 2050. This prediction is based solely on the current rate of rising sea levels and climate change. Given the erratic water impounding and release from upstream China's dams, this rate is bound to accelerate, especially when all dams are at full capacity. A similar fate could be predicted for other provinces downstream of the Mekong Delta.

Exploiting its geographical location in the Mekong Basin, the Chinese Communist Party is leveraging its financial and pollical position by utilizing Laos as the battery to export electricity back to China. Given China’s construction of the BRI and its extension to take control over surrounding nations’ electricity production, it’s likely that Chinese dams on the Mekong River would be weaponized solely for the development of China’s economy. This will place a significant threat on the sustainable future of our environment and the current structure of fair trade all around the world. Most importantly, given the Chinese government's oppressive policies toward ethnic minority groups, the human rights of this population in Yunnan are also threatened.