User talk:Rafflesgluft

August 2018
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Thank you. Drm310 🍁 (talk) 19:48, 24 August 2018 (UTC)
 * OK thanks for the tip--Rafflesgluft (talk) 20:43, 24 August 2018 (UTC)

Asteroid impact
You might like to add a paragraph to Impact event, maybe at the end of its Holocene subsection, about impacts that were predicted. Jim.henderson (talk) 21:21, 24 August 2018 (UTC)

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On asteroid sizes
Hi,I appreciate your edit on List of asteroid close approaches to Earth in 2018. I just wanted to let you know that the original size estimations typically take into account uncertainty in absolute magnitude, which JPL automatically takes out of the equation after a few months for reasons I'm still not sure of. Still not sure what to do about it but I wanted to make you aware of it. exoplanetaryscience (talk) 04:39, 22 September 2018 (UTC)
 * thanks, yes I did find it a bit odd that so many of the size estimations had narrowed like that. I assumed they'd just reduced the confidence and so got narrower bands, but that makes sense. Feel free to re-widen! Rafflesgluft (talk) 08:30, 24 September 2018 (UTC)

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A new short-arc orbit record
A bit of a strange thing to mention I suppose, but the recent asteroid ZW900BE I just added to the page is a great example of how rarely it's possible to predict an orbit from a very small number of observations. With only 4 observations over a 24 minute period it's possible to tell the object passed about 1 LD from Earth, as the direction and velocity of its movement changed noticeably over the short observation period. I doubt we'll be getting any other objects with as good orbits in as short an observation arc, though, as this just barely has enough data to base the prediction off of, and was not only found extremely conveniently close to the close approach time (less than 5-8 hours later depending on the solution) but has a particularly high velocity, making it easy to notice its movement speed changing even when it was nearly 2 LD from us. exoplanetaryscience (talk) 03:36, 30 November 2018 (UTC)


 * good to see! I guess it's a pretty small object and conditions are more likely to be "just right" for asteroids of this size (when we spot them - also nice to see!) as they are more numerous. By the way, I'm assuming we have a cut off at some point where we consider an object to be a meteoroid rather than an asteroid and so not worthy of the list? I know the boundary line is a bit blurred, I've been assuming an expected size of 1 m is the limit we're using? Perhaps it's worth stating this in the article if you're in agreement, especially if you know how to calculate what magnitude that equates to as I must admit I don't (I guess the size has an asymmetric PDF so the expected value is non-obvious - if we don't know the magnitude, we could just state 1 m for now)? Rafflesgluft (talk) 11:15, 30 November 2018 (UTC)
 * I don't think we need to worry about a size limit at the moment. Currently our detection limits are something around H=35 (~20-70 centimeters) and I doubt we'll be getting anything like that for a while. 2018's had a whole lot more asteroids than 2016 or 2017, which in turn have had a ton more than the years before that, but upon the end of the year my statistical review should show that this is less about us discovering smaller asteroids, and more about us getting better at detecting the medium-sized ones. exoplanetaryscience (talk) 05:39, 1 December 2018 (UTC)

Confirming asteroids in lunar approaches as well
Hey, would you mind possibly also updating the lunar approaches data table as well as the earth approaches one when an asteroid gets confirmed? It's not a big problem but it would be helpful for consistency purposes when I'm too inactive to get around to same-day updates. exoplanetaryscience (talk) 17:30, 24 January 2019 (UTC)


 * Hi. Sure. I'll try to remember :-) --Rafflesgluft (talk) 17:41, 24 January 2019 (UTC)

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