2024 Belgian federal election

Federal elections were held in Belgium on 9 June 2024. The Chamber of Representatives received 150 members with five-year terms. European and regional elections took place on the same day.

Background
After a lengthy government formation spanning 494 days, the 2019 Belgian federal election eventually resulted in the formation of a government led by prime minister Alexander De Croo, consisting of a so-called Vivaldi coalition. The government replaced a government led by Sophie Wilmès, which was a caretaker minority government with emergency plenary powers given by the opposition to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak in Belgium.

Electoral system
The 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies, being the ten provinces and Brussels, with between 4 and 24 seats. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method, with an electoral threshold of 5% per constituency.

87 Representatives elected from the five Flemish Region provinces, Antwerp (24), East Flanders (20), Flemish Brabant (15), Limburg (12) and West Flanders (16), automatically belonged to the Dutch-speaking language group in parliament, whereas those 47 elected from the five provinces of Wallonia, Hainaut (17), Liège (14), Luxembourg (4), Namur (7) and Walloon Brabant (5), formed the French-speaking language group. The 16 members elected in Brussels can choose to join either group. Apportionment of seats is done every ten years in accordance with population data, last by royal order in 2022, when Brussels and Namur each gained a seat while Hainaut and Liège lost a seat.

The 60-member Senate is composed of 50 representatives from the regional and community parliaments, plus 10 co-opted senators proportionally divided among parties based on the result of the federal election.

All Belgian citizens aged 18 or over are obligated to participate in the election. Non-Belgian citizens residing in Belgium (regardless of EU citizenship) cannot vote, whereas Belgian citizens living abroad can register to vote.

Voting is done electronically in all 19 Brussels and nine German-speaking municipalities, as well as in 159 Flemish municipalities. Voting is done by paper ballot in 141 Flemish municipalities as well as in all 253 (non-German-speaking) Walloon municipalities.

Sitting
The following parties running have seats in the Chamber of Representatives.

Lead candidates
The following candidates are the first on the respective party list (lijsttrekker / tête de liste) per constituency.

French-speaking constituencies
Hainaut will feature three party chairmen (Bouchez for MR, Magnette for PS and Nollet for Ecolo) as well as popular ex-MR ex-minister Crucke for Les Engagés. In Namur, three federal deputy prime ministers will run against each other (Dermagne for PS, Gilkinet for Ecolo and Clarinval for MR). The right-wing Flemish nationalist N-VA party is also fielding candidates in Wallonia for the first time.

Retiring incumbents
The following members of the federal parliament are not standing for election in June 2024.
 * Patrick Dewael (Open Vld)
 * Valerie Van Peel (N-VA)
 * Maggie De Block (Open Vld)
 * Barbara Creemers (Groen)
 * Wouter De Vriendt (Groen)
 * Kristof Calvo (Groen), though he later announced he will support the Ecolo list in Hainaut, without aiming to be elected
 * Steven Creyelman (Vlaams Belang)
 * Meryame Kitir (Vooruit)
 * Jessika Soors (Groen)

Opinion polls
In the run up to the 2024 Belgian federal election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Belgium. The date range for these polls were from a few months after the 2019 Belgian federal election, held on 25 May 2019, to shortly before the 2024 Belgian federal election. The results of nationwide polls were usually numerically split into the three Belgian regions: Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia. The federal election was part of a group of elections which also included the regional elections and the European elections. Some polls might have undefined voting intentions without differentiating between the elections.

Results
The results saw the New Flemish Alliance remain the largest party in parliament, while the incumbent coalition government led by Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and his Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats held on to its majority by only one seat, despite the latter party falling to ninth place in the election tally. The Reformist Movement emerged as the largest party in Brussels and Wallonia.

Senate
Since the sixth state reform of 2011, the Senate is no longer directly elected. The regional parliaments elect 50 senators based on the results of the concurrent regional elections (the Flemish Parliament elects 29, the Parliament of the French Community elects ten, the Walloon Parliament elects eight, the Parliament of the Brussels-Capital Region elects two Francophone senators and the Parliament of the German-speaking Community elects one). The elected senators in turn co-opt 10 senators (six Dutch-speaking and four Francophone), who are allocated based on the preceeding election results of the Chamber of Representatives, making a total of 60 senators.

The distribution of seats among parties resulted as following:

Aftermath
Following the release of the election results, Alexander De Croo announced his resignation as Prime Minister effective on 10 June. After this, he will remain as caretaker prime minister until a new federal government is formed. Tom Ongena also announced his resignation as party leader, and ruled out Open Vld's participation in the next government. Of the French-speaking parties, François De Smet, chair of Défi, and Paul Magnette, president of PS, also submitted their resignation, though Magnette's resignation was rejected by the party's board.

The New Flemish Alliance's (N-VA) Bart De Wever claimed victory. Even though Vlaams Belang came second, its leader Tom Van Grieken expressed disappointment, as the party was expected to overtake N-VA to become the biggest in Flanders. In Wallonia, Reformist Movement's (MR) president Georges-Louis Bouchez emphasized the electorate's willingness for change, after his party gained more votes than PS for the first time in decades.

According to political analysts, the most obvious federal coalition would consist of the right-wing N-VA and MR, and centre-left Vooruit, with the centrist CD&V and Les Engagés parties to reach at least 76 seats. Other coalitions are ruled out, following the decision of Open Vld and PS to be part of the opposition. Vlaams Belang is not expected to be part of the government at any level, due to the cordon sanitaire.

Exploratory coalition talks started on 10 June, the day after the elections. As is tradition, party leaders are individually invited to an audience with the King, starting with the biggest parties. On 11 June, the MR and Les Engagés announced a preliminary agreement to form a government in the Walloon parliament, following the regional elections. As part of the agreement, the two parties would form a partnership during government formation talks at the federal level.