Global Combat Air Programme

The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is a multinational initiative led by the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy to jointly develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter. The programme aims to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon in service with both the Royal Air Force (RAF) and the Italian Air Force, and the Mitsubishi F-2 in service with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force.

On 9 December 2022, the governments of Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy jointly announced that they would develop and deploy a common fighter jet, merging their previously separate sixth-generation projects: the United Kingdom-led BAE Systems Tempest developed with Italy, and the Japanese Mitsubishi F-X. This was cemented with a treaty signed in December 2023 in Japan.

Under the current timeline, the programme expects to begin the formal development phase from 2025, with a demonstrator to fly in 2027, and production aircraft to begin entering service from 2035.

The project is also known as the GCAP and there are around 9,000 people working on it worldwide, with 1,000 and more suppliers from across the three partner nations. 600 suppliers are based in the UK, and 400 are based Italy and Japan. The programme is designed to boost economic growth and improve the air force capabilities of Japan, the UK, and Italy.

The GCAP requires highly trained technicians. BAE systems have 1,000 apprentices and graduates working on GCAP.

United Kingdom & Italy (Tempest)
On 16 July 2018 during the Farnborough Airshow, then UK defence secretary Gavin Williamson publicly revealed a mock-up of 'Tempest' a BAE Systems led sixth-generation fighter programme and wider Future Combat Air System (FCAS) that would be developed to replace the RAF's Eurofighter Typhoons in the mid-to-late 2030s. A year later on 19 July 2019, Sweden signed a Memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the UK to work together in developing the wider FCAS needed for the future of aerial operations. on 11 September during DSEI 2019, Italy formally joined the Tempest programme. In 2020, Sweden and the UK 'firmed up' their MoU for FCAS and saw Sweden's SAAB establish a centre-of-excellence in the UK as part of a £50 million investment, However it was stressed that this was not an indication that Sweden or SAAB had signed onto the main Tempest effort. On the 21 December 2021, The UK, Italy, and Sweden signed a trilateral MoU for cooperation on the FCAS. A number of new technologies were being explored for possible deployment on Tempest, including:


 * Directed-energy weapons
 * Augmented reality cockpit - control scheme featuring little-to-no physical controls, instead displaying features virtually on the heads up display via the pilot's helmet. This would reduce aircraft weight, improve upgradability through a software-based approach, and provide additional display space for information outside of the typical flat-screen arrangement. This also includes examinations into interactivity such as motion-control and eye-tracking.
 * Biometric and psycho-analytical monitoring - exploring pilot health monitoring during combat and training to identify issues such as stress, confusion, cognitive load, as well as hypoxia or G-LOC.
 * Manned-unmanned teaming - crewed aircraft like Tempest working cooperatively with uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) known as 'Adjuncts' (also known as Loyal Wingmen or Remote Weapon Carriers in other aircraft programs)
 * Artificial intelligence (AI) - known as the Intelligent Virtual Assistant (IVA) that could assist with aircraft operations or data processing in certain operations or situations.

It was envisaged that the programme would agree to funding and manufacturing arrangements in 2025 with an expected in-service date for the aircraft in 2035.

Japan (F-X)
Following the USA's decision not to allow the export of the F-22 Raptor, Japan began looking for a domestic solution to field a new fighter aircraft. From the mid-2000s Japan began funding various research programmes involved in fighter design culminating in the Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin experimental aircraft which took flight on 22 April 2016. This research and the data collected from the X-2 program would feed the development of Japan's main fighter effort, the Mitsubishi F-X programme.

Programme initialisation
Discussions for both parties combining their respective fighter development efforts as a means of reducing their overall development costs began as early as 2017. In December 2021, the first results of this endeavour appeared when the UK and Japan announced they would jointly cooperate to produce a demonstrator for a new fighter engine as well as the signing of a memorandum of cooperation to explore future air combat technologies together. On 15 February 2022, a further agreement was reached between both nations to jointly develop sensor capabilities for their respective fighters known as the 'Japan and Great Britain Universal Advanced RF (radio-frequency) system' or 'JAGUAR'.

In July 2022, Reuters reported from anonymous sources within both programmes that both parties were close to a deal that would combine both Tempest and F-X into a single joint programme. On 9 December 2022, this was proven correct when it was officially announced by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that the Tempest and F-X programmes would merge into a single endeavour to procure a common multi-role fighter now called the "Global Combat Air Programme" (GCAP). The resulting aircraft would also be expected to be available for export to further reduce the per-unit costs.

The programme is envisaged as an equal partnership between the member nations. In the UK, BAE Systems will act as prime contractor and handle the airframe, Rolls-Royce the engines, Leonardo's UK division the electronics, and MBDA UK the weapons. In Japan, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will act as prime contractor, with IHI Corporation handling the engines, and Mitsubishi Electric handling the electronics. In Italy, Leonardo S.p.A. will be prime contractor, with Avio Aero working on the engines, and MBDA IT will also work on missile development. By around 2024, detailed development and cost sharing for each company will be clarified, and production will begin around 2030, with the first aircraft to be deployed in 2035.

Possible Swedish, Saudi Arabian, and German membership
In late December 2022, two weeks after GCAP was announced, Japan and Sweden signed an ‘Agreement on the Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology' that would explore deeper bilateral ties between both nations. This also began speculation as to Sweden potentially becoming a member of GCAP as a means of replacing their Saab JAS 39 Gripen given that Sweden had previously been cooperating with the UK and Italy regarding the FCAS to which Tempest would have contributed. However, in March 2023, several industrial figures involved in GCAP placed doubt on Sweden joining GCAP with some stating that Sweden's concepts for FCAS did not align with the views of the UK or Italy.

On 11 August 2023, the Financial Times reported that that Saudi Arabia was pushing to join the programme. While the UK and Italy were reportedly open to the concept, Japan was firmly opposed, seeing Saudi membership as a complication to both further domestic efforts in allowing Japanese defence exports to foreign nations and to the overall timeline for the programme in successfully producing an in-service aircraft by 2035. There were also concerns from defence sources that the security of sensitive technology might be complicated by Saudi membership as well as the questionable technical contribution that the Kingdom could feasibly provide to the programme.

On 15 September, Leonardo's CEO said that Saudi Arabia would not become a core partner in GCAP, with Reuters reporting that in a response to the question of Saudi membership they said "The programme is (for) UK, Japan, Italy, that's it. There is nothing else at the moment".

On 1 November 2023, The Times reported on leaked rumours that Germany was considering abandoning the €100 billion Future Combat Air System; also known by its French designation SCAF (a parallel European effort to field a sixth-generation fighter design alongside other systems) with other core members France and Spain, and would instead look to join GCAP. Extensively this was due to ongoing problems within both the SCAF programme regarding intellectual property and industrial participation as well as tensions spilling over from other European programmes such as on matters of air defence and Germany's procurement of the F-35A. However, many experts were quick to point out that the complexity of the discussions for this type of programme should keep observers sceptical of such rumours. James Black from Rand Europe and Isabella Antinozzi from RUSI explained to Shepard News that this leak might potentially be a German negotiating tactic to pressure France and Spain to concede into more of Germany's demands for the programme or risk their divergence. There was also scepticism as to whether Germany would even be able to join GCAP, at least to the same level of membership they had within SCAF, especially given previous statements by GCAP industry heads.

In December 2023, a Swedish official during the International Fighter Conference announced that Sweden would not make a decision on a future fighter to replace the Gripen until 2031 following several national studies and related planning efforts. It was also mentioned that Sweden walked away from bilateral and trilateral discussions with the UK and Italy a year before, but did not expand on the reasons for this decision. Whilst such a decision does not rule-out future Swedish participation in GCAP, delaying membership in the programme would risk losing industrial influence over design requirements.

During the February 2024 World Defence Show in Saudi Arabia, Ahmad Al-Ohali, the governor of the Saudi government’s General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) told Breaking Defence that the kingdom remained "very keen" on participating in GCAP but stressed that this can only happen if "localisation" can occur and that Saudi Arabian industries are meaningfully involved in the program. This is seen as part of a larger national effort to ensure that at least 50% of all defence expenditure is reinvested domestically by 2030.

GIGO formation
On 12 September 2023, during the first day of DSEI 2023, a trilateral collaboration agreement was signed between all three parties to support the long-term working arrangements and capability requirements of the programme. Three months later, on 14 December 2023, and twelve months after the initial agreement to pursue GCAP, the tri-lateral effort was cemented with the signing of an international treaty for the development of the aircraft in Tokyo. This treaty would see both the collaborative governmental headquarters and industrial hub for the effort be based in the UK, confirming earlier reports, with Japan providing the first CEO and Italy the first leader of the business entity. This would culminate in the formation of the GCAP international Government Organisation (GIGO) which would be responsible for managing the development of the fighter once the nations' respective political bodies gave their approval.

On 6th March 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told the House of Councillors budget committee that additional defence-related export reforms would be required to reduce the production costs involved in GCAP, support Japan's national security, and to ensure that Japan can be seen internationally as a reliable defence partner. Additionally it was reported that the Prime Minister also highlighted that Italy and the UK "consider promoting the transfer of finished products to third countries to lower procurement prices as an important element of their contribution, and [they have] requested that Japan take a similar response.” On 15th March 2024, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito agreed to the revision of stringent defence export rules which would allow for the export of defence equipment, including the jointly developed fighter jet, to other countries that Japan has signed defence equipment and technology transfer deals with whilst also being free of ongoing conflict. However Komeito of the ruling coalition expressed reservations about the decision in line with the party's pacifist platform.

In mid-March 2024, during a press briefing, Leonardo's CEO Roberto Cingolani criticised the UK for lack of transparency regarding the details for the procurement of the wider System of systems for GCAP that the crewed fighter component would contribute to and that there was still uncertainty regarding the manufacturing and development responsibilities of the various partner companies.

In May 2024, Japan's House of Representatives, followed by the House of Councillors on June 5th 2024, approved the signing of the Tokyo treaty formally establishing the GIGO. The establishment of GIGO also provided a pathway for the discussion of workshare and financial investment by the three partner nation's and their domestic industries. Two initial funding proposals have been initially reported, one with the UK and Japan each funding 40% whilst Italy would fund the remaining 20% of the programme whilst the other would see an equal distribution (33.3% each).

Similar programs

 * Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) - US Air Force's sixth-generation fighter programme.
 * F/A-XX - US Navy's sixth-generation fighter programme.
 * Future Combat Air System (FCAS / SCAF) - European (French / German / Spanish / Belgian) sixth-generation fighter programme.