Next Generation Air Dominance

The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) is a United States Air Force (USAF) sixth-generation air superiority initiative with a goal of fielding a "family of systems" that is to succeed the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. A crewed fighter aircraft is the centerpiece program of NGAD and has been referred to as the Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA) platform and is to be supported by uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft (CCA), or loyal wingman platforms, through manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T).

The NGAD originates from DARPA's Air Dominance Initiative study in 2014, and is expected to field the new fighter aircraft in the 2030s. While originally pitched as a joint Air Force-Navy program, the two services eventually established separate offices and programs. Despite sharing the same name, the Air Force's NGAD effort is distinct from the Navy's, which has the F/A-XX as its crewed fighter component and would have a similar fielding timeframe.

History
The NGAD originated from Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) studies initiated in 2014 to explore concepts for air superiority systems of the 2030s for the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy. DARPA had completed its Air Dominance Initiative study in March 2014 and based on the results, the Department of Defense acquisition chief Frank Kendall launched the Aerospace Innovation Initiative (AII) in 2015 to develop X-plane prototypes to demonstrate technology for future fighter aircraft. In 2016, the USAF followed up the DARPA studies with the Air Superiority 2030 (AS 2030) flight plan, but while the plan stated the need for a family of systems, it was still focused on a specific member of the family called the Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA). In 2018, AS 2030 evolved into the NGAD and expanded its focus from a single addition towards a suite of capabilities and was envisioned to be a "family of systems".

The NGAD program's overarching aim is to develop key technologies that would provide the Air Force with air dominance. These technologies revolve around several areas such as propulsion, stealth, advanced weapons, digital design (CAD-based engineering), and thermal management of the aircraft signature. The program changes traditional Air Force acquisition by the separation of design, production, and support functions in the development process with a $9 billion budget through 2025. More frequent industry competitions and simulations in the design and manufacturing process are characteristic of the development program.

While NGAD increased its scope from a single platform to a "family of systems", a crewed fighter aircraft is the centerpiece of the program. It will be supported by a variety of complementing "manned, unmanned, optionally manned, cyber, electronic" systems, which are likely to be uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) to carry extra munitions and perform other missions. In particular, NGAD aims to develop a system that addresses the operation needs of the Indo-Pacific theater of operations, where current USAF fighters lack sufficient range and payload. USAF commanders have noted that there may be two variants of NGAD: one with long range and payload for the Indo-Pacific and one more oriented to the relatively short ranges between possible battle areas in Europe. The fighter is expected to leverage adaptive cycle engines being developed under the Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP) and Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program, with flight ready engines expected by 2025.

The crewed fighter component of the NGAD was briefly envisioned to follow the rapid development and procurement cycles of the "Century Series" fighter aircraft of the 1950s and 1960s; dubbed "Digital Century Series" by Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (SAF/AQ) Will Roper, fighter designs would be continually iterated to enable the rapid insertion of new technology and procured in small batches. In May 2021, chief of staff of the USAF General Brown stated that the NGAD will start replacing the F-22 once it is operational in sufficient quantity, with the fielding goal in the 2030s. The F-22 has also been used to test NGAD technology and some advances are expected to be applied to the F-22 as well. The complexity and sophistication of modern aircraft design, however, eventually caused the "Digital Century Series" to be abandoned in favor of a more traditional development and procurement approach.

In June 2022, the USAF determined that critical technologies were ready to support the program for Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD). According to Roper, the first full-scale technology demonstrator prototype of the NGAD crewed fighter aircraft from the AII X-plane program had been flown in 2020, and by 2023, three separate prototypes had flown. The formal solicitation was announced in May 2023, with the goal of source selection in 2024.

On 27 July 2023, Kathy Warden, CEO and President of Northrop Grumman, confirmed that the company notified the U.S. Air Force that it would not bid as a prime contractor for the program, leaving Boeing and Lockheed Martin as the probable two remaining contenders for the main manned fighter component of the program.

Developments
In FY2023 budget request, the Air Force allocated a total of $1.66 billion for the NGAD program. Further financial commitments are projected, with an estimated additional expenditure of $11.7 billion earmarked for the years spanning from FY2024 to FY2027. The cost of each plane was not disclosed by Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, but is expected to be in the "multiple hundreds of millions."

In 2023, the Air Force projected approximately 200 manned NGAD fighters, although this is a notional figure for rough planning assumptions.

SMG Consulting shared an infographic on the program, showing dimensions, cost, and combat radius, based on the Lockheed Martin 6th generation fighter artist impressions.