2000 United States Senate election in Missouri

The 2000 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 7, 2000, to select the next U.S. Senator from Missouri. Incumbent Republican Senator John Ashcroft lost re-election to a second term to Democratic Governor Mel Carnahan despite Carnahan's death in a plane crash 20 days before Election Day (due to the timing of Carnahan’s death, state law did not allow his name to be replaced on the ballot). Newly-inaugurated governor Roger Wilson appointed Mel Carnahan's widow Jean Carnahan to fill the seat pending a 2002 special election.

As of 2024, this is the only time a deceased person has won a U.S. Senate election, as well as the last time that a party flipped a Senate seat in a state that flipped against them in the simultaneous presidential election.

Background
John Ashcroft had first been elected in 1994, with close to 60% of the vote, amidst a national Republican wave. During his tenure in the senate, he established a reputation as a conservative, advocating for welfare reform and tax reform, and for being a favorite of social conservatives such as Pat Robertson. Beginning in 1997, Ashcroft considered running for President in 2000. Ashcroft visited numerous crucial states, but was undecided between a presidential bid, re-election, or both, which would be permitted under state law. On January 5, 1999, he announced that he would not seek the presidency and would instead seek a second Senate term in the 2000 election.

His opponent was incumbent two-term Democratic Governor Mel Carnahan, who by state law, was barred from seeking a third term. Carnahan had held various statewide positions including State Treasurer, Lieutenant Governor (which he served as while Ashcroft was governor) and as Governor. He also had been seen as a prospective candidate in virtually every Missouri U.S. Senate race in the 1990s, including passing on a bid for the Class 1 Senate seat in 1994. He announced his bid for the seat on November 4, 1998, with polls at the time, showing him leading Senator Ashcroft.

Primary results
The primary election was held on August 9, 2000. Both candidates won their respective primaries against largely token opposition.

Candidates

 * John Ashcroft, incumbent U.S. Senator (Republican)
 * Mel Carnahan, Governor of Missouri (Democratic) (died October 16)
 * Charles Dockins (Natural Law)
 * Hugh Foley (Reform)
 * Grant Samuel Stauffer (Libertarian)
 * Evaline Taylor (Green)

Campaign
Missouri was often considered by pundits to be a close match to the national electorate, with even the candidates mirroring the presidential candidates at the top of the ticket in many respects. Furthering this line of thinking, Missouri had picked the correct winner in every presidential election from 1904, with the exception of the 1956 presidential election. With this in mind, the race for U.S. Senate quickly became one of the most hotly contested in the country. Both candidates used various ways to campaign. For example, Ashcroft held a bus tour across the state to campaign on "Missouri Values". Likewise, Carnahan held a four day long train tour, an homage to Missouri native and former President Harry S. Truman, who held this seat before being elected as vice president.

Both candidates had long been considered rivals, and the race became negative early. Ashcroft received staunch criticism for his role in defeating the judicial nomination of Ronnie White, attacking him as "pro-criminal", a move which Carnahan, and many black leaders, saw as having racial overtones. He was also attacked for his Senate votes against a prescription drug benefit for Medicare, his vote on Bill Clinton's impeachment, and for his conservative voting record. Ashcroft also faced controversy for the honorary degree he received from Bob Jones University, a Christian college which faced controversy over some of its views. Carnahan was also subject to attacks for his past actions, such as wearing blackface in a 1960 sketch. He was also attacked for his commutation of the death sentence of Darrell J. Mease, at the behest of the Pope. In addition to the contrast between the candidates, issues ranging from healthcare to education to Social Security would become some of the most contentious issues, mirroring the national Presidential Election.

Both candidates were close in the polls and in fundraising with it at times being one of the most expensive races in the nation. Ashcroft would have a war chest that included significant contributions from corporations such as Monsanto Company, headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, which gave five times more to Ashcroft's campaign fund than to the fund of any other congressional hopeful at the time. Ashcroft's campaign fund would later be fined by the Federal Election Commission for failure to disclose donors.

Debates
There were two debates held during the cycle. The first debate was held on Friday, October 13 in St. Louis on KMOX, on radio. The second debate was held days later on October 15 on KCPT-TV in Kansas City. A third debate was planned in Cape Girardeau, but details could not be worked out, and ultimately, the debate would never occur.

Plane crash
On October 16, the day after the second debate between the two candidates, Carnahan spent the day campaigning. At around 6:45 that evening, planned to depart to New Madrid, for a meeting with Black leaders in Missouri. However, owing to failing instruments and bad weather conditions, the plane crashed at around 7:30 in rural Jefferson County. Carnahan was killed along with his son Roger "Randy" Carnahan, and his longtime aide Chris Sifford. In response, Ashcroft suspended all campaigning on the day of the plane crash in light of the accident and resumed it eight days before the election date. Carnahan's death also came the day before the third presidential debate, which was to be held in St. Louis. Both Al Gore and George W. Bush offered tributes to the late Governor before the debate.

The election was tight in the final weeks, albeit with Ashcroft leading in most polls. But the news of Carnahan's death appeared to throw the outcome in doubt. Many media outlets and analysts even assumed that the tragedy assured Ashcroft would win a second term. Nonetheless, Carnahan's name remained on the ballot as Missouri's last date to change who appears on the ballot was October 13, just three days prior to the crash. Lieutenant Governor Roger B. Wilson became Acting Governor the day of the plane crash and was officialy sworn in as Governor after Carnahan’s death was confirmed 2 days later. Should Carnahan have won the election, Wilson promised to appoint his widow Jean Carnahan. She accepted the would-be appointment and with the slogan "Don't let the fire go out!", a slogan her husband liked to use, the campaign continued with an outpouring of support. What was once a contentious campaign, quickly became a campaign of emotion. Polls bore this out, with some of the final polls in the race showing Carnahan with a sizable lead, which only grew as voters were informed of the planned appointment of his widow.

While Carnahan's chances rose, Ashcroft found himself in a difficult position as a result of Carnahan's death. Ashcroft tried to turn the campaign's focus back on the issues, including enlisting the help of former Senator John Danforth, who filmed an advertisement encouraging voters to look at Ashcroft's experience. But due to the unique circumstances of the election, Ashcroft found it hard to regain the momentum. He commented in a TV interview that suspending his campaign had damaged him politically, even though he still maintained it was the right thing to do. In the final week, Ashcroft focused his campaign exclusively on the issues, stringently avoiding any mentions of his late opponent.

Results
Despite his death, Carnahan won by a margin of approximately fifty thousand votes. He was the first person ever posthumously elected to the United States Senate. Hence, John Ashcroft became the first ever U.S. Senate candidate, incumbent or otherwise, to be defeated by a deceased person. A professor of political science at the University of Missouri commented that the incumbent Senator lost the election because his candidacy was "overwhelmed" by a campaign of "emotion and symbolism."

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

 * Dunklin (largest city: Kennett)
 * Mississippi (largest city: Charleston)
 * New Madrid (largest city: New Madrid)
 * Pemiscot (largest city: Caruthersville)
 * Reynolds (largest city: Ellington)
 * Iron (largest city: Ironton)
 * St. Francois (largest city: Farmington)
 * Sainte Genevieve (largest city: Ste. Genevieve)
 * Jefferson (largest city: Arnold)
 * Pike (largest city: Bowling Green)
 * Clark (largest city: Kahoka)
 * Jackson (largest city: Kansas City)
 * St. Louis (largest city: Florissant)
 * Callaway (largest city: Fulton)
 * Howard (largest city: Fayette)
 * Randolph (largest city: Moberly)
 * Boone (largest city: Columbia)
 * Linn (largest city: Brookfield)
 * Henry (largest city: Clinton)
 * Saline (largest city: Marshall)
 * Clay (largest city: Liberty)
 * Ray (largest city: Richmond)
 * Lafayette (largest city: Odessa)
 * Clinton (largest city: Cameron)
 * Buchanan (largest city: St. Joseph)

Aftermath
There was speculation that the results would be subject to a legal challenge. Even before the election, Republicans claimed that Carnahan would be ineligible due to him being dead, claims Democrats dismissed as attempts to depress support for the late governor. A point of contention among Republicans was the decision of judge Evelyn Baker to extend polling hours in the city of St. Louis until 10:00 PM, 3 hours after polls in the city should have closed. Baker claimed that huge turnout overwhelmed the polling places, and that many people were being denied the ability to vote. Kit Bond, the state's Republican senior senator alleged that this was voter fraud, and called for a federal investigation. Ultimately, nothing came of any of these issues, and Ashcroft declined to seriously push the issue.

Asked by the media whether he would ever seek office again, Ashcroft responded, "The last thing I want to do is think about running for public office again." In December 2000, he was chosen for the position of United States Attorney General by President-elect George W. Bush and his nomination was confirmed by the Senate by a vote of 58 to 42. He served from February 2, 2001, until February 3, 2005.

Keeping to his word, Governor Roger B. Wilson appointed Carnahan's 66-year-old widow, Jean Carnahan, to fill the vacant seat until a successor could be duly elected. The appointment was made official on in early December after the final results had been certified. Carnahan was sworn in on January 3, 2001, along with the rest of the Senators elected the previous year.

In 2002, a special election was held in Missouri for the remainder of the six-year term of the state's Senator. Jean Carnahan ran for election to complete the term but was defeated by Republican Jim Talent with a margin of approximately twenty-two thousand votes.