2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, ran for re-election to a sixth term. He faced Democratic nominee and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and Libertarian nominee David Patterson in the general election.

The race was initially seen as a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats, largely due to McConnell's unpopularity among Kentucky voters. By election day, however, both The Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report considered Republicans to be favored. McConnell ultimately defeated Grimes by a landslide margin of 56.2% to 40.7%.

Republican primary
Immediately after a secret recording of Mitch McConnell and his campaign staff was released to Mother Jones, McConnell expressed concerns about what he saw as a threat from the left. David Adams, a Kentucky Tea Party activist who was seeking a Republican opponent to McConnell, told The New York Times that McConnell's fears about "threats from the left" were misplaced. Adams said: "It's going to come from the right. The fact that he's coming unglued about this thing should make clear to observers that he may not be ready for the challenge that lies ahead."

McConnell won the primary with 60.2% of the vote. According to analysis by the University of Minnesota, this is the lowest voter support for a Kentucky U.S. Senator in a primary by either party since 1938.

Declared

 * Matt Bevin, businessman
 * Brad Copas, former National Guardsman
 * Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator
 * Chris Payne, party promoter
 * Shawna Sterling, doctoral student

Withdrew

 * Gurley L. Martin, World War II veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Declined

 * Andy Barr, U.S. representative
 * Ernie Fletcher, former governor of Kentucky and former U.S. representative
 * Brett Guthrie, U.S. representative
 * John Kemper, candidate for state auditor in 2011
 * Thomas Massie, U.S. representative

Polling

 * ^ Internal poll for Mitch McConnell campaign

Results
[[File:2014 Kentucky Senate Republican primary election results map by county.svg|thumb|250px|Results by county {{legend|#E27F7F|McConnell}}

{{legend|#FFB2B2|40–50%}}

{{legend|#E27F7F|50–60%}}

{{legend|#D75D5D|60–70%}}

{{legend|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend|#FF9A50|Bevin}}

{{legend|#FFB580|40–50%}} ]]

Democratic primary
In late 2012 and early 2013, media speculation focused on the possibility of a challenge to incumbent Mitch McConnell from actress and Tennessee resident Ashley Judd, who was raised in Kentucky. Judd later announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination. On April 9, Mother Jones magazine released a tape of a private meeting between McConnell and, allegedly, his aides reviewing opposition research and tactics to use against Judd. At the February strategy session, McConnell referred to the early stages of his re-election bid as the "Whac-A-Mole period of the campaign," and he and aides discussed attacking Judd's religious views as well as her struggle with depression.

Alison Lundergan Grimes, the sitting secretary of state, entered the primary race with the encouragement of former president Bill Clinton, a friend of Grimes's father, former Kentucky politician Jerry Lundergan. On May 20, 2014, she won the Democratic primary with 77% of the vote. Her father's involvement in the campaign was noted as a factor in the race because of his personal political history and fundraising connections.

Declared

 * Burrel Farnsley, perennial candidate
 * Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky
 * Greg Leichty, professor at the University of Louisville
 * Tom Recktenwald, former Catholic school teacher

Withdrew

 * Ed Marksberry, contractor and nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2010 (ran as an independent before dropping out entirely)

Declined

 * Jerry Abramson, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former mayor of Louisville
 * Matthew Barzun, United States ambassador to the United Kingdom and former United States ambassador to Sweden
 * Steve Beshear, Governor of Kentucky
 * John Young Brown III, former secretary of state of Kentucky and candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky in 2007
 * Ben Chandler, former U.S. representative
 * Jack Conway, Attorney General of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
 * Adam Edelen, State Auditor of Kentucky
 * Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville
 * Tom FitzGerald, Executive Director of the Kentucky Resources Council
 * Heather French Henry, former Miss America
 * Bill Garmer, attorney, former chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party
 * Gill Holland, film producer and environmental activist
 * Ashley Judd, actress and political activist
 * Crit Luallen, former state auditor
 * Daniel Mongiardo, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004
 * Dennis Parrett, state senator
 * Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and former attorney general of Kentucky
 * John Yarmuth, U.S. representative

Results
[[File:2014 Kentucky Senate Democratic primary election results map by county.svg|thumb|250px|Results by county {{legend|#7996E2|Grimes}}

{{legend|#7996E2|50–60%}}

{{legend|#6674DE|60–70%}}

{{legend|#584CDE|70–80%}}

{{legend|#3933E5|80–90%}} ]]

Declared

 * David Patterson, police officer

Results
Patterson won the Libertarian primary on March 1, 2014. While he ran unopposed, all Libertarian Party candidates must defeat "none of the above" (NOTA) in the primary operated by the Libertarian Party of Kentucky. He became an official ballot-listed candidate on August 11 after submitting over 9,100 signatures.

Declared

 * Mike Maggard (write-in)
 * Robert Ransdell (write-in), white supremacist and Neo-Nazi campaigner
 * Shawna Sterling (write-in), unsuccessful Republican candidate for the seat

Withdrew

 * Ed Marksberry, contractor and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2010

Debates

 * Complete video of debate, October 13, 2014

Polling

 * ^ Internal poll for McConnell campaign
 * * Internal Poll for Grimes campaign

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

 * Bourbon (largest city: Paris)
 * Carroll (largest city: Carrollton)
 * Breathitt (largest city: Jackson)
 * Carter (largest city: Grayson)
 * Hancock (largest city: Hawesville)
 * Magoffin (largest city: Salyersville)
 * Powell (largest city: Stanton)
 * Trimble (largest city: Bedford)
 * Webster (largest city: Providence)
 * McLean (largest city: Livermore)
 * Morgan (largest city: West Liberty)
 * Harrison (largest city: Cynthiana)
 * Knott (largest municipality: Hindman)
 * Pike (largest municipality: Pikeville)
 * Henderson (largest city: Henderson)
 * Letcher (largest city: Jenkins)
 * Muhlenberg (largest city: Central City)
 * Floyd (largest municipality: Prestonburg)
 * Greenup (largest city: Flatwoods)
 * Fulton (largest city: Fulton)
 * Fleming (largest city: Flemingsburg)
 * Lincoln (largest city: Stanford)

By congressional district
McConnell won 5 of 6 congressional districts.