2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Governor Tom Corbett was defeated by Tom Wolf, becoming the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose re-election since William Bigler in 1854, and the first Republican to ever do so. This was the only governorship Democrats flipped in the 2014 midterms. Wolf was sworn in on January 20, 2015, marking the most recent time the Pennsylvania governor's office changed partisan control.

Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track". Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country, The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch, and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".

Democrats flipped the counties of Erie, Lawrence, Beaver, Alleghany, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Centre, Clinton, Northumberland, Dauphin, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Carbon, Schuylkill, Lehigh, Berks, Bucks, and Chester.

Meanwhile, this is the last time these counties have voted Democratic in a statewide election: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill.

This is the first Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 1982 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1934 this occurred during a Democratic administration. This also remains the last time that a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election has been decided by a single-digit margin, as Democrats have won each subsequent election by large double-digit margins.

Background
Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010. This has been referred to as "the cycle", but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860. The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms. Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.

Republican primary
Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot. NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with "Re-Elect Tom Corbett" posted on his truck.

Declared

 * Tom Corbett, incumbent governor of Pennsylvania

Disqualified

 * Bob Guzzardi, attorney, businessman and conservative activist

Declined

 * Bruce Castor, Montgomery County Commissioner
 * Jim Gerlach, U.S. Representative and candidate for governor in 2010
 * Tom Smith, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
 * Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator

Declared

 * Rob McCord, Pennsylvania Treasurer
 * Katie McGinty, former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
 * Allyson Schwartz, U.S. Representative
 * Tom Wolf, businessman and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue

Withdrew

 * John Hanger, former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
 * Jo Ellen Litz, Lebanon County Commissioner (failed to qualify)
 * Max Myers, businessman and former pastor
 * Ed Pawlowski, Mayor of Allentown
 * Jack Wagner, former Pennsylvania Auditor General, candidate for governor in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Pittsburgh in 2013

Declined

 * Bob Casey, Jr., U.S. Senator
 * Scott Conklin, state representative and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010
 * Kathy Dahlkemper, former U.S. Representative
 * Eugene DePasquale, Pennsylvania Auditor General
 * Kathleen Kane, Pennsylvania Attorney General
 * Tom Knox, businessman, candidate for Mayor of Philadelphia in 2007 and candidate for governor in 2010
 * Daylin Leach, state senator (running for Congress)
 * Patrick Murphy, former U.S. Representative
 * Michael Nutter, Mayor of Philadelphia
 * Ed Rendell, former governor
 * Joe Sestak, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
 * Josh Shapiro, chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners
 * Tim Solobay, state senator
 * Michael J. Stack III, state senator (running for lieutenant governor)

Polling

 * ** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf campaign
 * ^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty campaign
 * * Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz campaign

Candidates

 * Tom Corbett (R), incumbent governor
 * Paul Glover (G), activist
 * Jonathan D. Jewell (I), Independent
 * Ken Krawchuk (L), technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2002
 * Tom Wolf (D), former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue

Debates

 * Complete video of debate, September 22, 2014
 * Complete video of debate, October 8, 2014

Spending
As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million.

Polling

 * With Corbett


 * With Gerlach


 * With Guzzardi


 * With Kelly

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

 * Alleghany (largest city: Pittsburgh)
 * Beaver (largest city: Beaver)
 * Berks (largest borough: Reading)
 * Bucks (largest municipality: Bensalem)
 * Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
 * Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
 * Centre (largest municipality: State College)
 * Chester (largest municipality: West Chester)
 * Clinton (largest city: Lock Haven)
 * Dauphin (largest municipality: Harrisburg)
 * Erie (largest municipality: Erie)
 * Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
 * Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
 * Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
 * Lehigh (largest municipality: Allentown)
 * Luzerne (largest municipality: Wilkes-Barre)
 * Monroe (largest borough: Stroudsburg)
 * Northampton (largest municipality: Bethlehem)
 * Northumberland (largest borough: Sunbury)
 * Schuylkill (largest city: Pottsville)

By congressional district
Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf, though at the time most of the districts were gerrymanders drawn by Republican legislators. Wolf won the 6th, 7th and 8th districts, which all elected Republicans to the House.