2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk. The primary elections were held on May 15. This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Republicans flipped the counties of Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.

Nominated

 * Tom Wolf, incumbent governor

Nominated

 * John Fetterman, mayor of Braddock and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Eliminated in the primary

 * Nina Ahmad, former deputy mayor of Philadelphia
 * Kathi Cozzone, Chester County Commissioner
 * Ray Sosa, banker and insurance broker
 * Mike Stack, incumbent lieutenant governor

Withdrawn

 * Aryanna Berringer, Iraq War veteran and nominee for PA-16 in 2012 (endorsed Kathi Cozzone)
 * Madeleine Dean, state representative (running for PA-04)
 * Craig Lehman, Lancaster County commissioner (endorsed Kathi Cozzone)

Declined

 * Erin McClelland, nominee for PA-12 in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Fetterman)

Polling
{| class="wikitable" ! Poll source ! Date(s) administered ! Sample size ! Margin of error ! style="width:45px;"| Aryanna Berringer ! style="width:45px;"| Kathi Cozzone ! style="width:45px;"| Madeleine Dean ! style="width:45px;"| John Fetterman ! style="width:45px;"| Craig Lehman ! style="width:45px;"| Mike Stack ! Undecided
 * - valign=bottom
 * Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC
 * align=center| February 2–4, 2018
 * align=center| 467
 * align=center| ± 4.53%
 * align=center| 2%
 * align=center| 10%
 * align=center| 4%
 * align=center| 20%
 * align=center| 1%
 * align=center| 8%
 * align=center| 55%
 * align=center| 55%

Primary results
[[File:Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg|thumb|Results by county: {{legend|#1666cb|Fetterman—70–80%}} {{legend|#4389e3|Fetterman—60–70%}} {{legend|#86b6f2|Fetterman—50–60%}} {{legend|#b9d7ff|Fetterman—40–50%}} {{legend|#d3e7ff|Fetterman—<40%}}

{{legend|#ffb380|Ahmad—40–50%}} {{legend|#ffccaa|Ahmad—<40%}}

{{legend|#cc2f4a|Cozzone—60–70%}} {{legend|#ffccd0|Cozzone—<40%}}

{{legend|#e6cdff|Stack—<40%}} ]]

Nominated

 * Scott Wagner, state senator

Eliminated in the primary

 * Laura Ellsworth, attorney
 * Paul Mango, businessman and former U.S. Army officer

Withdrawn

 * Mike Turzai, speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and nominee for PA-04 in 1998

Declined

 * Paul Addis, businessman (ran for U.S. Senate)
 * Lou Barletta, U.S. representative (ran for U.S. Senate)
 * Jake Corman, majority leader of the Pennsylvania State Senate
 * Mike Kelly, U.S. representative
 * Dave Reed, majority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Nominated

 * Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner)

Eliminated in the primary

 * Kathy Coder, political activist
 * Peg Luksik, political activist
 * Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County commissioner (running with Paul Mango)

Removed from the ballot

 * Joe Gale, Montgomery County commissioner (did not meet minimum age requirement of 30)

Withdrawn

 * Gordon Denlinger, former state representative
 * Otto Voit, candidate for state treasurer in 2016

Considered potential

 * Dave Argall, state senator and nominee for PA-17 in 2010
 * Erin Elmore, attorney, political correspondent and The Apprentice contestant

Declined

 * Dan Meuser, former Pennsylvania secretary of revenue and candidate for PA-10 in 2008 (running for PA-09)
 * Justin Simmons, state representative (running for PA-15)

Results
[[File:Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary, 2018.svg|thumb|Results by county: {{legend|#cc2f4a|Bartos—60–70%}} {{legend|#e27f90|Bartos—50–60%}} {{legend|#f2b3be|Bartos—40–50%}} {{legend|#ffccd0|Bartos—<40%}}

{{legend|#ffb380|Coder—40–50%}} {{legend|#ffccaa|Coder—<40%}}

{{legend|#1666cb|Vaughan—70–80%}} {{legend|#86b6f2|Vaughan—50–60%}} {{legend|#b9d7ff|Vaughan—40–50%}}

{{legend|#b380ff|Luksik—50–60%}} {{legend|#e6cdff|Luksik—<40%}} ]]

Nominated

 * Paul Glover, community organizer

Nominated

 * Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick

Nominated

 * Ken Krawchuk, technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2014

Nominated

 * Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (running with Ken Krawchuk)

Candidates

 * Paul Glover (G), author, community organizer
 * Ken Krawchuk (L), IT entrepreneur, freelance writer
 * Scott Wagner (R), former state senator
 * Tom Wolf (D), incumbent governor

Debates

 * October 1, 2018: Complete video of debate (begins at 08:50)

Predictions

 * Notes

Polling

 * with Paul Mango


 * with Laura Ellsworth

Results
The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

 * Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
 * Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
 * Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
 * Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
 * Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
 * Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
 * Northumberland (largest borough: Sunbury)
 * Schuylkill (largest city: Pottsville)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

 * Cumberland (largest municipality: Carlisle)

By congressional district
Gov. Tom Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans.