2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota

The 2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence against the DFL nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Prior to the election, 15 out of 16 news organizations predicting the election projected Minnesota as leaning towards Biden. Biden ultimately carried the state by a 7.12% margin, significantly improving over Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.52% margin in 2016. Biden's win marked the twelfth consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican for President since 1972.

Biden flipped four counties Trump carried in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona, all of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The key to Biden's success was his strong performance in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, where he outperformed both Obama and Clinton. His vote share in Hennepin County, home of Minneapolis, was the highest of any presidential nominee since Republican Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. He also improved on Clinton's performance in the Iron Range, although his performance in the region was still well below what Democrats had historically earned between the New Deal realignment and the 2016 election. In addition, Biden managed to flip Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, based in the Twin Cities' southern suburbs and exurbs, from Trump.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden carried 51% of White Minnesotans, as well as 58% of college educated voters and 55% of voters from union households. Trump's strength was concentrated in rural areas, while Biden performed better in urban and suburban areas.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Koochiching or Mahnomen Counties since those counties were formed in 1906; the first Democrat to win without Traverse County since Grover Cleveland in 1892; the first to win without Kittson, Norman, Itasca, or Beltrami Counties since Woodrow Wilson in 1912; the first to win without Swift County since Wilson in 1916; the first to win without Lac qui Parle County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944; the first to win without Chippewa, Freeborn, Mower, or Rice Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960 and the first to win without Fillmore County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This is the first time since 1964 in which Minnesota voted more Republican than New Hampshire.

Republican primary
The Republican primary took place on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

Democratic primary
The Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates. Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007, expressed interest in running, and formally declared her candidacy in February 2019,  but then withdrew prior to Minnesota's race.

Biden won the most delegates.

Libertarian caucuses
The Libertarian Party of Minnesota used ranked-choice voting to tabulate the results of their caucus. After 7 rounds, Jacob Hornberger was declared the winner.

Polling

 * Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

 * Polls


 * Donald J. Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar


 * Donald J. Trump vs. Bernie Sanders


 * Donald J. Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren


 * with Donald J. Trump and generic Democrat


 * with Donald J. Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz

By county

 * Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
 * Blue Earth (largest municipality: Mankato)
 * Clay (largest municipality: Moorhead)
 * Nicollet (largest municipality: North Mankato)
 * Winona (largest municipality: Winona)

By congressional district
Biden and Trump each won four of the state's eight congressional districts. Neither won any district in Minnesota represented by the other party in the House of Representatives, although incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson was unseated in the Trump-won 7th district.

Analysis
After narrowly losing the state in 2016, the Trump campaign identified Minnesota as an offensive target in 2020; polls of Minnesota voters throughout the campaign, however, showed Biden leading. Throughout the summer leading up to the election, the Twin Cities metropolitan area was the epicenter of Black Lives Matter protests, in light of the murder of George Floyd having taken place in Minneapolis.

Trump attempted to court white suburban Minnesotans with law and order messaging by using images of rioting in campaign ads and claiming that Biden would "destroy suburbia". These efforts failed, as Biden massively improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in the Twin Cities suburbs. With his resounding victories in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, Biden became the first Democrat to win over 70% of the vote in any Minnesota county since Minnesotan Hubert Humphrey did in Carlton, Lake, and St. Louis Counties (the core of the heavily unionized Iron Range region) in 1968.