Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the previous election on 12 December 2019 to the eve of the 2024 election. The date of the election was Thursday, 4 July 2024.

Graphical summaries
   

Guide to tables
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a poll result is a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded and displayed in bold.

"Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom, namely the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Greens, and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland. The three parties share a commitment to environmental policies, but are independent of one another, with each contesting elections only in its own region.

The polling company ComRes was acquired by Savanta in July 2019. It was rebranded as Savanta ComRes in November 2019 and as Savanta in December 2022. In August 2023, the market research company Omnisis rebranded its public polling arm as We Think. In October 2023, the Norstat group acquired Panelbase. In November 2023, Kantar Public rebranded to Verian. None of these organisational changes entailed changes in methodology.

National poll results
Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland.

2024
When compared to the result, the final week of polls under-estimated the Conservative and Lib Dem vote shares and over-estimated the Labour and Reform vote shares.

Seat projections
The general election was contested under the first-past the post electoral system in 650 constituencies. 326 seats were needed for a parliamentary majority.

Most polls were reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters did not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons.

Projections from aggregate data
Various models existed which continually projected election outcomes for the seats in Britain based on the aggregate of polling data. Final predictions of some notable models are tabulated below.

MRP and SRP polls
Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) was used by YouGov to predict outcomes for the 2017 and 2019 elections. Multiple polling companies conducted such polling and modelling for the 2024 election, these are tabulated below. Also included is a stacked regression with poststratification (SRP) poll produced by J.L. Partners, the first time such a method has been used for a UK election. All of these polls use sample sizes substantially larger than typical national polls.

These polls were of Britain only, though the reporting of some results include the 18 Northern Irish seats under "Others". Polling companies also differ in their handling of the Speaker's seat, considering it variously as Labour, "Other", or omitting it from the results. Negative values in the rightmost "majority" column below indicate that the party with the most seats would have a plurality of seats, but would not have a majority. The overall vote share values for these polls, where reported, are also included in the tables above.

Exit poll
An exit poll conducted by Ipsos for the BBC, ITV, and Sky News was published at the end of voting at 22:00, predicting the number of seats for each party.

Tees Valley
The following polls related to the Tees Valley Combined Authority area.

West Midlands county
The following polls relate to the West Midlands metropolitan county, as opposed to the statistical region.

Bicester and Woodstock
Bicester and Woodstock was a new seat at the 2024 general election.

Bristol Central
Bristol Central was a new seat at the 2024 general election.

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)
Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) was a new seat at the 2024 general election, replacing Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

Chingford and Woodford Green
Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Chingford and Woodford Green were changed. The Conservative Party's candidate was former party leader Iain Duncan Smith. Faiza Shaheen was the Labour Party candidate for the seat in 2019 and originally reselected to contest the seat again. However, she was deselected by Labour's NEC and replaced. The below poll was conducted before Shaheen left the Labour Party and announced her candidacy as an Independent.

Clacton
Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Clacton were changed. The Reform UK candidate was the party's leader, Nigel Farage. 

Gillingham and Rainham
Gillingham and Rainham maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Godalming and Ash
Godalming and Ash was a new seat at the 2024 general election, mostly replacing South West Surrey. The Conservative Party's candidate was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt.

Hartlepool
Hartlepool maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Holborn and St Pancras
Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Holborn and St Pancras were changed. The Labour Party candidate was the party's leader, Sir Keir Starmer.

Islington North
Islington North maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election. Jeremy Corbyn, the incumbent MP and former Leader of the Labour Party, stood as an independent candidate following his suspension from the party in 2020. 

Mid Bedfordshire
Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Mid Bedfordshire were changed. The 2023 by-election was contested on the 2019 boundaries.

North Herefordshire
Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of North Herefordshire were changed.

Portsmouth North
Portsmouth North maintained its 2019 boundaries at the next election. The Conservative Party's candidate was Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons.

Richmond and Northallerton
Richmond and Northallerton was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Conservative Party candidate was the party's leader and Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak.

Waveney Valley
Waveney Valley was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Green Party candidate is one of its co-leaders, Adrian Ramsay.

Wokingham
Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Wokingham were changed.

Wycombe
Wycombe maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Ynys Môn
Ynys Môn maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

"Red wall"
Polling firms published polls of the "red wall", which took respondents from a selection of constituencies gained by the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. Different pollsters used different sets of constituencies for their polling.

Deltapoll
Deltapoll published a poll of the 57 constituencies that the Conservatives gained from Labour and the Liberal Democrats without specifying any regions.

Focaldata
Focaldata published a poll of the 44 seats the Conservatives gained from Labour in northern England and the Midlands.

JL Partners
JL Partners published polls of forty-five seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales, apart from Bridgend, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham and Ynys Môn.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies published polls of 37 constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2019 that had been held by Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017, as well as Burnley, Redcar and Vale of Clwyd

YouGov
YouGov published polls of all fifty seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales.

"Blue wall"
Polling firms published polls of the "blue wall", which took respondents from constituencies held by the Conservatives but which might be gained by Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Different pollsters used different sets of constituencies for their polling.

JL Partners
JL Partners published a poll of the forty-five seats in southern England which the Conservatives won in 2019 with a majority of under 10,000 votes.

More in Common
More in Common published a poll of the thirty-nine seats which the Conservatives won in 2019 and saw the largest total swing towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the 2017 and 2019 elections.

Opinium
Opinium published a poll of the forty-one constituencies held by the Conservatives since 2010, where Labour or the Liberal Democrats outperformed their national swing against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019, with a majority of under 10,000.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield and Wilton Strategies published polls of the forty-two constituencies in southern England which voted Conservative in the last three general elections, where more than a quarter of adults have degrees, where more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and where the Conservative majority over Labour was under 10,000 or the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats was under 15,000, in the 2019 general election.

YouGov
YouGov specified the blue wall to be constituencies held by the Conservative Party in the South or East of England in the 2019 election, with a population which by majority voted to remain in the European Union and have a higher level of graduates than the country at large.

England and Wales
Find Out Now conducted a poll of voters in England and Wales.

Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire
Survation conducted a poll of voters in Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire.

Coventry
Survation conducted a poll of voters in Coventry.

Most rural constituencies
Survation published multiple polls of the 100 most rural constituencies in England.

"Conservative Celtic Fringe"
YouGov produced a poll of seats in South West England that had elected a Conservative MP in every election since the 2015 general election and where a majority of voters were estimated to have voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. They branded these seats the "Conservative Celtic Fringe".

"Sea Wall"
YouGov conducted polls of voters in 108 coastal constituencies which they refer to as the "Sea Wall".

Young voters
Savanta published polls of voters aged between 18 and 25. The 2019 result comes from the British Election Study's estimate of voters aged 18 to 24.

16–17 year olds
JL Partners polled a sample of 16 and 17 year olds. The voting age in UK elections is 18, therefore none of the individuals polled had the legal right to vote.