2024 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024. The last time Republicans won this seat was in 2000.

Background
Montana is generally considered a red state at the federal level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008. As of May 2024, Republicans control both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, both houses of the state legislature, and the governorship.

In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester is popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race is considered to be a tossup. Most polls initially showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy has since gained an edge.

On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."

After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race. The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19. An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.

Nominee

 * Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)

Eliminated in primary

 * Michael Hummert, retired remodeling contractor

Results
[[File:2024 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Montana results map by county.svg|thumb|275px|Primary results by county: {{legend|#7996E2|Tester}}

{{legend|#584CDE|70–80%}}

{{legend|#0D0596|>90%}} ]]

Nominee

 * Tim Sheehy, founder and CEO of Bridger Aerospace and retired Navy SEAL

Eliminated in primary

 * Brad Johnson, former chair of the Montana Public Service Commission (2015–2023) and former Montana Secretary of State (2005–2009)
 * Charles Walkingchild, Sr., environmental contractor and candidate for MT's 2nd congressional district in 2022

Withdrew

 * Jeremy Mygland, construction company owner (endorsed Rosendale, running for state senate)
 * Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from MT's 2nd congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2021–2023); nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (endorsed Sheehy)

Declined

 * Greg Gianforte, governor of Montana (2021–present) (endorsed Sheehy, running for re-election)
 * Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative from MT's 1st congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. secretary of the interior (2017–2019) (endorsed Sheehy, running for re-election)

Results
[[File:2024 United States Senate Republican primary in Montana results map by county.svg|thumb|275px|Primary results by county: {{legend|#e27f7f|Sheehy}}

{{legend|#e27f7f|50–60%}}

{{legend|#d75d5d|60–70%}}

{{legend|#d72f30|70–80%}}

{{legend|#c21b18|80–90%}} ]]

Nominee

 * Sid Daoud, Kalispell city councilor and chair of the Montana Libertarian Party

Nominee

 * Michael Downey, drought program coordinator

Eliminated in primary

 * Robert Barb

Polling

 * Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte


 * Jon Tester vs. Brad Johnson


 * Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale


 * Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke