2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election

The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.

Primary elections were held on August 8. Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.

The race was considered to be competitive, with Reeves moderately favored. Reeves won re-election, but this was the best performance for a Democrat, the worst for a Republican, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican, and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.

Background
This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999.

This structure was referred to as Mississippi’s version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well. Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held.

A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state levels, with both of its U.S. senators, all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide executive officers currently belonging to the Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.

Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state.

Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised.

Nominee

 * Tate Reeves, incumbent governor

Eliminated in primary

 * David Grady Hardigree, U.S. Army veteran
 * John Witcher, physician

Declined

 * Lynn Fitch, Mississippi Attorney General (ran for re-election)
 * Robert Foster, former state representative and candidate for governor in 2019 (ran for the DeSoto County Board of Supervisors)
 * Andy Gipson, Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce (ran for re-election)
 * Philip Gunn, Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives
 * Bill Waller Jr., former Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court, son of former governor Bill Waller, and candidate for governor in 2019
 * Michael Watson, Mississippi Secretary of State (ran for re-election)
 * Shad White, Mississippi State Auditor (ran for re-election)

Polling

 * Tate Reeves vs. Bill Waller Jr.

Results
[[File:2023 Mississippi gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg|thumb|230px| Results by county: {{legend|#e27f7f|Reeves}}

{{legend|#a80000|>90%}}

{{legend|#c21b18|80–90%}}

{{legend|#d72f30|70–80%}}

{{legend|#d75d5d|60–70%}} ]]

Nominee

 * Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District

Disqualified

 * Bob Hickingbottom, political consultant and Constitution nominee for governor in 2019
 * Gregory Wash, songwriter and candidate for governor in 2019

Declined

 * Shuwaski Young, political organizer and nominee for MS's 3rd congressional district in 2022 (ran for Secretary of State)

Withdrawn

 * Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive (endorsed Presley, remained on ballot)

Declined

 * George Flaggs Jr., mayor of Vicksburg and former Democratic state representative
 * Bill Waller Jr., former Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court, son of former governor Bill Waller, and candidate for governor in 2019

Endorsements


Polling

 * Aggregate polls


 * Tate Reeves vs. generic opponent

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

 * Forrest (Largest city: Hattiesburg)
 * Grenada (Largest city: Grenada)
 * Lowndes (Largest city: Columbus)
 * Winston (Largest city: Louisville)
 * Yalobusha (Largest city: Water Valley)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

 * Lafayette (Largest city: Oxford)
 * Madison (Largest city: Madison)