2024 Wisconsin State Assembly election

The 2024 Wisconsin State Assembly election is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. All 99 seats in the Wisconsin State Assembly are up for election. Currently, 64 Assembly seats are held by Republicans and 35 seats are held by Democrats.

The primary election is scheduled for August 13, 2024. The filing deadline to appear on the ballot was June 3, 2024.

Background
This election will be significantly affected by the legislative maps drawn as a result of the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision in Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission, which declared the previous legislative district map to be unconstitutional on December 22, 2023. The court was in the process of selecting a remedial plan, when the legislature chose to embrace the map proposed by governor Tony Evers. Evers signed the plan into law on February 19, 2024.

Under the new maps, these are expected to be the first competitive elections for the Assembly since 2010, when Republicans won control of the chamber. Democrats are expected to gain a number of seats, and while the maps are still considered slightly Republican-leaning, either major party could win a majority of seats if they win a majority of the popular vote in the state. Over 40 incumbent representatives have been drawn into districts with one or more other incumbent, with most of them being Republicans.

Democrats last won a majority of seats in the state assembly in the 2008 elections.

As of the first fiscal quarter, the Democratic Party has outraised their Republican counterparts at a rate of fifteen to one. With the Democratic party raising nearly $6 million dollars since the start of 2024, while the Republican Party has raised only $399,049 since the start of 2024.

Gerrymandering
In the 2010 elections, Republicans won significant majorities in both houses of the Legislature and the governorship. Republicans used their majorities to pass a radical redistricting plan after the 2010 census which substantially shifted the partisan bias of the state legislative maps. The map itself was the product of a Republican project known as REDMAP, created to maximize the partisan bias of redistricting by utilizing new statistical and mapping software. In the end, the maps were used for the 2012 elections, which saw Democrats win 52% of the statewide vote in the Assembly. Despite this, Democrats only won 39% of the seats in the chamber going into the 2013-2015 session. This disproportionality would only grow with future elections, with Republicans consistently winning a large majority of seats while the statewide vote would remain relatively close.

During the 105th Wisconsin Legislature (2021–2023), Wisconsin was again under divided government. The Wisconsin Supreme Court re-asserted a role in arbitrating redistricting disputes for the first time in 60 years. The conservative 4–3 majority on the Court chose to take original jurisdiction over the redistricting case at the urging of state Republican leadership, breaking from prior precedent of deference to federal courts.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled in November 2021, in a 4–3 decision on ideological lines, that the standard they would use to draw new maps would be to seek the "least changes" to the existing maps necessary to comply with the new census data. The standard conferred significant partisan advantage to the Republican Party in this map-making process due to the 2011 map's existing partisan tilt. After initially adopting Democratic governor Tony Evers' "least change" proposal, the United States Supreme Court tossed the decision, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court adopted the Republican "least change" proposal.

Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission
In 2022, Republicans won 64% of the seats, three away from a supermajority. The following April, the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election flipped the majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court to a liberal majority for the first time in over 15 years. The day after Janet Protasiewicz was inaugurated, a lawsuit was filed against the 2022 "least change" map.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court released their decision in the case, Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission, on December 22, 2023, declaring the legislative maps unconstitutional in a 4–3 opinion along ideological lines. The court declared that state legislative districts must be composed of "physically adjoining territory" and pointed out that 50 of 99 existing Assembly districts failed that constitutional criteria. The majority decision also declared that the "least changes" methodology used by the court in 2022 for the Johnson v. Wisconsin Elections Commission case was never properly defined and was without legal or constitutional foundation.

The court was in the process of selecting a remedial plan when the legislature chose to pass the map proposed by governor Tony Evers. Evers signed the plan into law on February 19, 2024. Republicans showed the most favorability towards Evers' proposal due to pairing the least incumbents and providing Republicans with the best opportunity to retain a majority in the fall elections.

PFAS Legislation
To combat the threat of PFAS contamination, the Wisconsin legislature included $125 million in the state budget. Despite this, Republicans on the Joint Finance Committee (JFC) have refused to release the funds to be used by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR). On April 9, Evers vetoed a piece of legislation which would have created grants to fight pollution due to PFAS chemicals, in explaining his veto, Evers cited the restrictions the legislation would have placed on the DNR to prosecute polluters. In vetoing the legislation, Evers also continued calling for the release of the $125 million which was set aside in the budget for combatting PFAS contamination. In response to Evers' veto, JFC members said they would hold the funds hostage.

On April 16, Evers called the JFC to session, but its Republican members refused to attend, denying the committee a quorum to do business. In response to this inaction, Wisconsin Democrats launched a six-figures campaign called "No More Games" which served the purpose to pressure and target members of the Committee from competitive districts. Among their targets included Assembly Republicans Mark Born, Jessie Rodriguez, and Shannon Zimmerman, from the 37th, 21st, and 30th districts respectively.

Expanding campaign
In 2018, following Tony Evers' victory over incumbent governor Scott Walker, the legislature met in a joint lame-duck session and passed legislation to limit the powers of the incoming Governor and Attorney General. The move was widely described as a power grab but was upheld by the courts.

Due to the legislative gerrymander, Democrats were unable to gain a majority in the State Assembly. Beginning in 2020, Wisconsin Democrats launched the "Save the Veto initiative" as a means to preserve Governor Evers' veto power by preventing a Republican legislative supermajority. Despite this, Republicans came within three seats of a veto-proof supermajority in the Assembly. Due to the newly-competitive legislative maps, Democratic campaign rhetoric has shifted from protecting the governor's veto to winning a majority in the assembly.

Democrats have run over 120 candidates in 97 districts, the highest number in over a decade. This election also has the fewest uncontested districts since 1982.

Retiring

 * Ty Bodden (R–Stockbridge), representing district 59 since 2022, is retiring to prevent a primary election with Ron Tusler
 * Sue Conley (D–Janesville), representing district 44 since 2020, is retiring.
 * Dave Considine (D–Baraboo), representing district 81 since 2014, is retiring.
 * James W. Edming (R–Glen Flora), representing district 87 since 2014, is retiring.
 * Terry Katsma (R–Oostburg), representing district 26 since 2014, is retiring.
 * John Macco (R–Ledgeview), representing district 88 since 2014, is retiring.
 * Gae Magnafici (R–Dresser), representing district 28 since 2018, is retiring.
 * Tod Ohnstad (D–Kenosha), representing district 65 since 2012, is retiring.
 * Warren Petryk (R–Washington), representing district 93 since 2010 is retiring
 * Jon Plumer (R–Lodi), representing district 42 since 2018, is retiring.
 * Nik Rettinger (R–Mukwonago), representing district 83 since 2022, is retiring.
 * Daniel Riemer (D–Milwaukee), representing district 7 since 2012, is retiring to spend time with his family.
 * Angie Sapik (R–Lake Nebagamon), representing district 73 since 2022, is retiring.
 * Ellen Schutt (R–Clinton), representing the 31st district since 2022, is retiring.
 * Kristina Shelton (D–Green Bay), representing district 90 since 2020, is retiring.

Seeking other office

 * Jimmy Anderson (D–Fitchburg), representing district 47 since 2016, is retiring to run for Wisconsin Senate in Wisconsin's 16th Senate district.
 * Samba Baldeh (D-Madison), representing district 48 since 2020, is retiring to run for Wisconsin Senate in Wisconsin's 16th Senate district.
 * Evan Goyke (D–Milwaukee), representing district 18 since 2012, will retire at the end of his term to serve as Milwaukee city attorney.
 * LaKeshia Myers (D–Milwaukee), representing district 12 since 2018, will instead run for Wisconsin Senate in Wisconsin's 4th Senate district to fill a vacancy, as well as for Wisconsin Senate in the same district in the general election.
 * Melissa Ratcliff (D–Cottage Grove), representing district 46 since 2022, is retiring to run for Wisconsin Senate in Wisconsin's 16th Senate district.
 * Katrina Shankland (D–Stevens Point), representing district 71 since 2012, is retiring to run for U.S. House of Representatives in Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district.

Vacating office

 * Marisabel Cabrera (D–Milwaukee), representing district 9 since 2018, will resign her seat on August 1 after being elected Wisconsin circuit court judge in Milwaukee County's 43rd branch in the Spring general election.
 * Dora Drake (D–Milwaukee), representing district 11 since 2020, instead ran for Wisconsin Senate in Wisconsin's 4th Senate district to fill a vacancy and will assume office following an uncontested special election to be held on July 30, 2024

Recall election
Two recall petitions have been filed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission, against Robin Vos (R–Rochester).

First recall petition
In January 2024, Matthew Snorek, a resident of Burlington, filed paperwork to recall Robin Vos. In the paperwork, Snorek gave a list of grievances against Vos, which included insufficient support for former president Donald Trump, refusing to impeach W.E.C. Administrator Megan Wolfe, and his refusal to decertify the 2020 presidential election. Many of the people who were involved in the recall campaign were the same people who were involved in the primary challenge against Vos in 2022. On March 10, the recall campaign claimed to have collected over 10,000 signatures, which would be more than enough to trigger a recall election.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to answer the question of what map would be utilized for the recall election, which was in conflict due to Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission. Clarke prohibited the use of the old maps in any future state legislative elections, while the law establishing the new legislative maps would not take effect until the November general election.

On March 11, the Commission held an emergency session the next day and conducted a first review of the signatures. During the initial scrutiny of petition signatures, several apparently fraudulent signatures were detected, and several apparent signers reported that their signatures had been forged. The Racine County district attorney subsequently opened a criminal investigation of recall organizers, investigating complaints of identity theft and election fraud. After a review by the Wisconsin Elections Commission staff, it was found the recall organizers did not collect enough signatures to trigger a recall.

Second recall petition
With the failure of the first petition to get the required amount of signatures in the borders of Vos' old or new district, Snorek filed a new petition to recall Vos. This new petition, due by May 28, was filed despite questions surrounding the prior petition not yet being answered. Snorek justified this petition arguing that Vos was a supporter of the Chinese Communist Party, his refusal to help lower prescription drug costs, and for deriding members of the petition as "whack-jobs, morons and idiots".

On May 21, Gableman announced that the effort to recall Robin Vos, in the old 63rd district, was on track to collect enough signatures to trigger a recall.

On June 25, the Wisconsin Elections Commission staff found that the recall petitioners had turned in 6,866 valid signatures, or 16 more signatures than were necessary to trigger a recall. The question of what district is to be used has still been left unresolved, though Vos has argued that the district he is being recalled from is the incorrect one, and that he can only be recalled from the new 33rd district, to be used in the fall elections. Despite the staff findings, the Commission itself found that the recall petition was invalid as several hundred petitions were collected after the filing deadline.

Predictions
[[File:WI Assembly 2024 CNalysis forecast.svg|thumb|Most recent CNalysis forecast

Republican

Democratic

Tossup ]]