2024 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Latest published ratings for competitive seats
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).


 * Graphical summary of national polls

Most election ratings use:
 * Tossup: no advantage
 * Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
 * Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
 * Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
 * Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

Party listings
The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats
On April 3, 2023, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.


 * 1) Arizona 1: David Schweikert
 * 2) Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
 * 3) California 3: Kevin Kiley
 * 4) California 13: John Duarte
 * 5) California 22: David Valadao
 * 6) California 27: Mike Garcia
 * 7) California 40: Young Kim
 * 8) California 41: Ken Calvert
 * 9) California 45: Michelle Steel
 * 10) Colorado 3: Open seat
 * 11) Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
 * 12) Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
 * 13) Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
 * 14) Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
 * 15) Montana 1: Ryan Zinke
 * 16) Michigan 10: John James
 * 17) Nebraska 2: Don Bacon
 * 18) New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
 * 19) New York 1: Nick LaLota
 * 20) New York 4: Anthony D'Esposito
 * 21) New York 17: Mike Lawler
 * 22) New York 19: Marc Molinaro
 * 23) New York 22: Brandon Williams
 * 24) Oregon 5: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
 * 25) Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
 * 26) Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
 * 27) Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
 * 28) Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
 * 29) Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
 * 30) Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats
On March 13, 2023, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:


 * 1) Alaska At-Large: Mary Peltola
 * 2) California 9: Josh Harder
 * 3) California 47: Open seat
 * 4) California 49: Mike Levin
 * 5) Colorado 8: Yadira Caraveo
 * 6) Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
 * 7) Florida 9: Darren Soto
 * 8) Illinois 17: Eric Sorensen
 * 9) Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
 * 10) Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
 * 11) Maine 2: Jared Golden
 * 12) Michigan 3: Hillary Scholten
 * 13) Michigan 7: Open seat
 * 14) Michigan 8: Open Seat
 * 15) Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
 * 16) North Carolina 1: Don Davis
 * 17) North Carolina 13: Open Seat
 * 18) North Carolina 14: Open Seat
 * 19) New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
 * 20) New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
 * 21) Nevada 1: Dina Titus
 * 22) Nevada 3: Susie Lee
 * 23) Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
 * 24) Ohio 1: Greg Landsman
 * 25) Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
 * 26) Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
 * 27) Oregon 4: Val Hoyle
 * 28) Oregon 6: Andrea Salinas
 * 29) Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
 * 30) Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
 * 31) Pennsylvania 17: Chris Deluzio
 * 32) Rhode Island 2: Seth Magaziner
 * 33) Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
 * 34) Virginia 7: Open seat
 * 35) Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
 * 36) Washington 8: Kim Schrier